Eternal Sunshine of the Democratic Mind

[The Other Castro]

Did you just kill Messi?

Don't worry, he only suffered a few superficial scratches.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tulsi is the only one I'm actively rooting against.

[Blackacre]

Tulsi is the only one I'm actively rooting against.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Tulsi is the only one I'm actively rooting against.

How come?

[Oppo]

Tulsi is the only one I'm actively rooting against.

[Oppo]

Corruption was such an old song that Cuomo and countless others could sing along in harmony, and nowhere was it stronger than in Albany.

The world would turn upside down if Cuomo won the nomination. But, he is clever, and won't throw away his shot. This run could the only way to protect his legacy, he can't say no to this.

[MAINEiac4434]

Tulsi is the only one I'm actively rooting against.

How come?

arguably the single most conservative Democrat in the caucus in terms of social issues, but the left hails her as some progressive hero because she endorsed Bernie for no reason other than to stave off a left-wing primary challenger. She pals around with Sheldon Adelson, she goes on Fox News and talks about how President Obama "needs to use the words 'radical Islamic terrorism'" even though that runs against carefully considered and constructed policy. She was the only congressional Democrat not to publicly criticize Trump during the campaign and two days after went crawling to Trump Tower asking for a job.

This blog puts it nicely why those of us on the left of the party are disgusted with her: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/07/to-label-tulsi-gabbard-progressive-is.html?m=1

[rpryor03]

Corruption was such an old song that Cuomo and countless others could sing along in harmony, and nowhere was it stronger than in Albany.

The world would turn upside down if Cuomo won the nomination. But, he is clever, and won't throw away his shot. This run could the only way to protect his legacy, he can't say no to this.

We get it, you can do Hamilton puns.

[Blackacre]

By the way, I doubt Hawaii would actually let her primary Hirono. Hawaii loves its incumbents

[MAINEiac4434]

Corruption was such an old song that Cuomo and countless others could sing along in harmony, and nowhere was it stronger than in Albany.

The world would turn upside down if Cuomo won the nomination. But, he is clever, and won't throw away his shot. This run could the only way to protect his legacy, he can't say no to this.

I mean, he's just like his country, he's young, scrappy and hungry. But about 60% of the party would need to take itself out of the narrative. Ultimately, he has no control who lives, who dies, who tells the story.

[The Other Castro]

By the way, I doubt Hawaii would actually let her primary Hirono. Hawaii loves its incumbents

I guess Hirono didn't want to take the chance. Whether Gabbard would have actually won a primary had it happened is another story.

[MAINEiac4434]

By the way, I doubt Hawaii would actually let her primary Hirono. Hawaii loves its incumbents

I guess Hirono didn't want to take the chance. Whether Gabbard would have actually won a primary had it happened is another story.

IMO Schatz, Hanabusa and Ige would've rallied behind Hirono. But Gabbard would've had access to the Sanders fundraising machine even without his explicit endorsement. Not to mention it was only 2014 when the Democrats ousted their incumbent governor in the primary. It would've been interesting to watch.

[The Other Castro]

Sherrod

October 6th, 2018

His aides told him not to worry about the recent polling. A slight Trump bump was to be expected after the recent terrorist attacks in Moscow, Prague, and now Amsterdam, and Josh Mandel was just reaping some temporary benefits from that. But still, Sherrod Brown was a little worried. His consistent leads had shrunk somewhat, and though the political environment seemed like it was going to favor Democrats, Sherrod had a clear memory of the 2010 and 2014 massacres. Trump's low 40s approval rating meant nothing if Democrats wouldn't show up to vote. 

Senator Brown was not the only Democrat concerned with reelection chances. His colleagues in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Montana were all running in very tight races at a time when Democrats needed every Senate seat they could get. At the same time, Democratic challengers in Arizona and Nevada were doing well enough to render those races tied as well, especially thanks to Senator Flake’s primary defeat to State Rep. Kelli Ward, and the recruitment of Stephen Cloobeck to face off against Senator Heller. The last midterms during a Republican administration were 12 years ago, and political operatives were not making any assumptions after the gut punch of 2016. The party in the White House was supposed to lose seats, but recent midterms had also made Democrats weary of the dangers in low turnout races.

Fortunately for Sherrod Brown, Ohio had become a key region in the rebirth of the Democratic Party, and many of his fellow Democrats had been happy to stop by and campaign with him. With their own races apparently locked up, Brown had been visited by everyone from Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Though grateful for the help, Sherrod was also aware of their ulterior motivations in coming to Ohio. It would be a delegate-rich state relatively early on in the 2020 primaries, and its importance was even more stressed by the new focus of Democrats on reconnecting with white working-class voters.

For those reasons, many of the potential candidates had been gauging his interest in running for the nomination. However, Sherrod Brown had absolutely no interest in running for anything other than reelection. The presidency was not something he desired, and he had privately been urging other progressive candidates to run. His heart broke on the night Donald Trump won his state by eight points, and he believed there were plenty of other Democrats with the appeal necessary to bring it back into the Democratic column. Sherrod thought about his future over the next two years and all the work that would be necessary to put the country back on track. But first, he had to win reelection next month.

[Blackacre]

RIP Sherrod. I do like that you're using people who aren't running for President, though!

[The Other Castro]

RIP Sherrod. I do like that you're using people who aren't running for President, though!

Thanks, yeah I figured I might as well check in with potential candidates leaning against runs both to get their reasons and because they won't be as prevalent later on.

[BuckeyeNut]

RIP Sherrod. I do like that you're using people who aren't running for President, though!

Thanks, yeah I figured I might as well check in with potential candidates leaning against runs both to both get their reasons and because they won't be as prevalent later on.

I like this decision. It's nice world building.

Also: Go, go, Sherrod!

[The Other Castro]

Al (Part 1/2)

November 6th, 2018

Al Franken watched as Amy Klobuchar took the stage to proclaim victory in her fight for reelection. She had confided in him in the past, and he knew what her next moves would be. Television screens surrounding the stage showed election results coming in, as his colleague began her speech by talking about the repudiation offered that night to President Trump.

At first Al wondered why he only had access to the Senate results and not the results for Governor and House races as well. Then he remembered that he was a plot device character being used for midterm election exposition, and that the author did not want to waste all his work on just one point of view chapter. Comedians are very self-aware people like that. After that brief existential moment, Al Franken returned his gaze to the races. His internal monologue provided additional details about the notable races.

Arizona:
Still scorned by his lack of support in 2016, President Trump privately supported Senator Jeff Flake’s ousting by former State Rep. Kelli Ward in the primary, and with Treasurer Jeff DeWitt’s public support Ward became the nominee. Whether Flake could have defeated Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema was unknown, but that question for Kelli Ward was swiftly answered as Democrats gained a key Senate seat.

Kyrsten Sinema – 49% (D+1)
Kelli Ward – 46%

California:
After Senator Diane Feinstein announced her retirement, the Democratic field was dominated by billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer and former Congresswoman Linda Sanchez, who was running again after her 2016 loss. Once again, two Democrats advanced to the runoff, with Steyer defeating Sanchez in a similar fashion.

Tom Steyer – 58%
Linda Sanchez – 42%

Connecticut:
Chris Murphy – 62%
Augie Wolf – 36%

Delaware:
Senator Tom Carper decided to retire, and the entrance of Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester cleared the field and allowed her to easily coast to victory.

Lisa Blunt Rochester – 59%
Ken Simpler – 37%

Florida:
Term limited Governor Rick Scott entered the race against Senator Bill Nelson, and quickly secured the nomination. After spending millions of dollars of his own money, Scott made the race closer than expected but still came up short, giving Nelson a fourth term.

Bill Nelson – 51%
Rick Scott – 46%

Hawaii:
With the threat of a competitive primary looming over her, Senator Mazie Hirono decided to retire. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard joined the now open race and easily defeated perennial candidate John Roco.

Tulsi Gabbard – 71%
John Roco – 25%

Indiana:
Senator Joe Donnelly had been considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection, and his odds were not helped by the entrance of Congresswoman Susan Brooks. In one of the bright spots for Republicans that midterm, Brooks successfully defeated Donnelly for the first party flip of the night.

Susan Brooks – 49% (R+1)
Joe Donnelly – 45%

Maine:
Outgoing Governor Paul LePage had implied for months that he would challenge Senator Angus King, but at the last moment decided to retire from politics instead. Though the state had recently switched to a ranked voting system, a second round proved unnecessary after Democrats opted not to field a candidate and allowed King to easily defeat State Senator Eric Brakey in the first round.

Angus King – 61%
Eric Brakey – 33%

Maryland:
Ben Cardin – 60%
Chris Chaffee – 37%

Massachusetts:
With no other Republican daring to enter the race, Curt Schilling was left as the only Republican to challenge Senator Elizabeth Warren. As expected, Warren made a bloody sock out of the former pitcher.

Elizabeth Warren – 62%
Curt Schilling – 38%

[The Other Castro]

Al (Part 2/2)

November 6th, 2018

Michigan:
While initially thought of as a potentially competitive race, Senator Debbie Stabenow handily defeated her 2006 opponent Mike Bouchard as part of the overall backlash against Republicans in Michigan.

Debbie Stabenow – 57%
Mike Bouchard – 41%

Minnesota:
Amy Klobuchar – 55%
Erik Paulsen – 41%

Mississippi:
Roger Wicker – 62%
Bill Marcy – 35%

Missouri:
Senator Claire McCaskill had seen success in the midterms of 2006 and the Great Akin-ing of 2012, and Democrats hoped that she could replicate her previous victories. However, in the other major Republican gain of the night, McCaskill’s lucky streak finally ran out at the hands of Congresswoman Ann Wagner.

Ann Wagner – 49% (R+1)
Claire McCaskill – 47%

Montana:
With Congressman Ryan Zinke foregoing a run to lead the Interior Department, Senator Jon Tester faced a less formidable opponent in former Navy SEAL Rob O’Neill. Confirming Republican fears of a missed opportunity, Tester comfortably defeated O’Neill.

Jon Tester – 50%
Rob O’Neill – 43%

Nebraska:
In a long shot attempt to win a seat in deep Republican territory against Senator Deb Fischer, state Democrats had their own candidate back down in favor of now independent candidate Brad Ashford. Their plan failed after Ashford announced he would caucus with Democrats if elected, negating the appeal of his independence and leading to his defeat.

Deb Fischer – 58%
Brad Ashford – 40%

Nevada:
Senator Dean Heller had long been considered a vulnerable incumbent Republican that year, but the problem was that there were almost no Democrats to challenge him. After Congresswomen Dina Titus decided not to run, Nevada Democrats rejoiced when businessman Stephen Cloobeck entered the race at the last moment. With the Reid machine still functioning, Cloobeck won the other major Democratic gain of the night.

Stephen Cloobeck – 48% (D+1)
Dean Heller – 46%

New Jersey:
Though he had initially announced his plans to run again, Senator Bob Menendez decided to retire. Congressman Frank Pallone finally got his promotion after big name Republicans stayed out of the race, leaving only former State Assemblywoman Alison Littell McHose.

Frank Pallone – 57%
Alison Littell McHose – 41%

New Mexico:
Martin Heinrich – 54%
Richard Berry – 43%

New York:
Kirsten Gillibrand – 69%
Adele Malpass – 29%

North Dakota:
In another example of President Trump acting out of step with the best interests of Senate Republicans, Trump consistently retweeted Senator Heitkamp approvingly throughout the year as she tweeted about her own approval for some of his policy agendas. Even as Republicans celebrated their recruitment of Congressman Kevin Cramer, Trump’s implicit support of Heitkamp in a state he won by a landslide in 2016 allowed Democrats to avoid a crucial loss in the state.

Heidi Heitkamp – 51%
Kevin Cramer – 48%

Ohio:
With this rematch of 2012, Senator Sherrod Brown once again battled Treasurer Josh Mandel for the key Senate seat. A close race throughout the year though with a slight advantage for Brown, this election was a nailbiter until the end and set the record for most expensive election in Ohio history. Despite the heavy Republican trend in the 2016 election, Brown ended up defeating Mandel by nearly the exact same margin as six years before.

Sherrod Brown – 51%
John Mandel – 45%

Pennsylvania:
Bob Casey Jr. – 55%
Pat Meehan – 44%

Rhode Island:
Sheldon Whitehouse – 67%
Raymond McKay – 33%

Tennessee:
Bob Corker – 61%
Terry Adams – 34%

Texas:
Heading into the midterms, Democrats knew that a longshot bid at Cruz’s seat was necessary in any possible path toward a majority. At first, there was major potential at an upset with the entrances of Independent candidate Matthew Dowd and Democratic Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Though Dowd only ever polled in the single digits, it was enough to make the race competitive by November. In the end, however, Dowd’s impact was mostly negligible and Cruz defeated O’Rourke by a smaller but still sizable margin.

Ted Cruz – 50%
Beto O’Rourke – 42%
Matthew Dowd – 5%

Utah:
Though he had previously announced his retirement, Senator Orrin Hatch changed his mind and decided to run for one last term. Hatch was ripe for a takedown, but Republican Jon Huntsman and Democrats Jim Matheson and Ben McAdams all declined to run. A 2006 rematch with Democrat Pete Ashdown appeared likely until former Presidential candidate Evan McMullin announced an Independent run for the seat. Vowing to caucus with Republicans if elected, McMullin campaigned tirelessly on a daily basis in his efforts to knock out the longest serving Republican Senator in U.S. history. In a major upset, McMullin defeated Hatch and Ashdown by a slim plurality, and became the first Independent Republican elected to the Senate since James Buckley in 1970.

Evan McMullin – 38% (I+1)
Orrin Hatch – 33%
Pete Ashdown – 29%

Vermont:
Bernie Sanders – 70%
Bruce Lisman – 26%

Virginia:
Tim Kaine – 54%
Pete Snyder – 45%

Washington:
Maria Cantwell – 61%
Chris Vance – 39%

West Virginia:
Like with Tester and Heitkamp, Senator Joe Manchin was lent a hand by President Trump in the heart of coal country. Throughout 2017 and 2018, Manchin had resisted the persuasions of the Trump Administration to switch parties, but had still played along on key measures. He supported several cabinet appointments, voted for tax reform bills, and even cooperated with Senate Republicans on new solutions for replacing Obamacare. In turn, he was able to use this goodwill with the President to show his constituents that he had their interests at heart, and wasn’t just a partisan politician. Even against a strong opponent in Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, he managed to win by a larger margin than expected.

Joe Manchin – 51%
Patrick Morrisey – 45%

Wisconsin:
Tammy Baldwin – 53%
Sean Duffy – 44%

Wyoming:
John Barrasso – 72%
Rex Wilde – 23%

While they had not accomplished a net gain of seats, let alone a takeover of the Senate chamber, Democrats considered themselves winners that night. Al could see how this would be spun: Republicans would say that they succeeded in keeping the Senate 52-48 even in a midterm year with an unpopular president, while Democrat would say that they mostly held their own in deeply unfriendly territory while picking off two swing state Republicans.

In maintaining their at-risk seats, a winning Democratic nominee in 2020 could possibly come into office with the Senate and House on his or her side. Who that candidate would be, Al Franken had no idea. He did not completely understand the supposed hype around his own potential candidacy. Sure, an SNL-alum might make a great foil to the comic-book villain president, but at the same time he thought Democrats should be the ones to promote serious discussion in contrast to the absurdity of Trump. If he were to run, which he had already ruled out internally for 2020 in deference to his fellow Minnesotan, he wanted it to be on his merits as a United States Senator and not on his chops as a sketch comedian. Maybe next time.

As he watched Senator Klobuchar finish her victory speech, Al received a call from the celebrating Governor-elect Chris Coleman, who conveniently informed him of the results of the other elections taking place that night.

[BuckeyeNut]

Nice write up. Seems like RCV would be the perfect opportunity for ME Democrats to field a candidate against King. Not as if it was an issue for him in '12z

[hurricanehink]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Brilliant! 😝

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hilarious, and well-written!

[MAINEiac4434]

Nice write up. Seems like RCV would be the perfect opportunity for ME Democrats to field a candidate against King. Not as if it was an issue for him in '12z

While you'd think that, no one wants to risk their skin going up against a hugely popular Senator who's basically a Democrat already.

[The Other Castro]

Hilarious, and well-written!

Brilliant! 😝

Thank you!

[Oppo]

Keep up the good work!

[The Other Castro]

Kamala (Part 1/3)

November 7th, 2018

“…well I certainly hope so. Yes. Sounds great. Congratulations again Gavin, I’m sure you’ll make an excellent Governor. I look forward to speaking again soon.”

There was nothing quite like the wonderful morning that followed an incredible evening. It was nearly the exact opposite of how Democrats felt on election night in 2016. Though at the time she had just won a Senate seat, Kamala Harris found it difficult to get out of bed the morning after. This morning however, she practically sprang from her sheets with the energy of a cheetah on a sugar high. It felt good to win again.

Kamala saw the 2018 Senate results in a glass half full manner. She had been pretty pessimistic about Democrats’ chances after 2016, so she was pleasantly surprised when they had no net losses with such a horrible map to work with. That was not why she was giddy though. That honor would go to the results of the gubernatorial elections. She pulled up a Politico recap of those races on her laptop and relived the excitement of the previous night. She wasn’t even bothered by the fact that only some of the races went further into detail than others, and as a reader she felt that enough work had already been put into the article for publication.

Alabama:
Young Boozer – 59%
Sue Bell Cobb – 41%

Alaska:
Continuing their strange partnership, Independent Governor Bill Walker and Democratic Lt. Governor Byron Mallot ran for a second term. Despite much speculation, former Senator Mark Begich did not run as a Democrat for the governorship. Facing the reality of their beneficial alliance and not wanting to throw the race to a Republican, state Democrats once again backed Walker instead of running a candidate of their own. With relatively high job approval numbers, Walker comfortably defeated Republican State Senator Charlie Huggins.

Bill Walker – 51%
Charlie Huggins – 43%

Arizona:
After Arizona’s surprisingly close results in 2016, Democrats thought they had a serious chance to take down Governor Doug Ducey. However, their preferred candidate Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton chose to sit out the race, leaving State Senator Steve Farley as the nominee. A well run campaign that avoided being thrown off message allowed Ducey to win a second term even as the Senate seat fell to Democratic hands.

Doug Ducey – 52%
Steve Farley – 43%

Arkansas:
Asa Hutchinson – 54%
Conner Eldridge – 43%

California:
With Governor Jerry Brown being term limited out of office, the race focused on Democrats Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villarigosa, and Republican Kevin Faulconer. At one point venture capitalist Peter Thiel considered entering the ring as a Republican, but ultimately decided against it. Lt. Governor Newsom finished first in the blanket primary as expected, but second place was awarded to San Diego Mayor Faulconer after he finished just ahead of former Los Angelas Mayor Villaraigosa. Though he ran a hard fought campaign, Faulconer was simply no match for the Democratic power in the Golden State and was crushed by Newsom in the general election.

Gavin Newsom – 62%
Kevin Faulconer – 38%

Colorado:
Ed Perlmutter – 51%
George Brauchler – 44%

Connecticut:
As one of the most unpopular governors in the country, Dan Malloy answered the prayers of many Connecticut Democrats when he announced that he would not run for a third term. Such a declaration was expected for some time, and his own fellow party member Middletown Mayor Dan Drew had already entered the race months earlier. The announcement was immediately followed by Democratic entrances of Comptroller Kevin Lembo, Environmental Lawyer Dan Esty, Senate President Pro Tem. Kevin Looney, and Consumer Protection Commissioner Jonathan Harris. The Republican side was even more crowded with State Rep. Prasad Srinivasan, Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst, attorney Peter Lumaj, Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, State Sen. Tony Hwang, and State Sen. Rob Kane all running. After being whittled down by the conventions and the primaries, the number of candidates shrank to two as Kevin Lembo was pitted against Tim Herbst. The race was relatively close, as it had been in previous elections, but once again Connecticut’s Democratic lean kept the statehouse away from Republicans.

Kevin Lembo – 52%
Tim Herbst – 47%

Florida:
Florida Democrats initially celebrated when former Congresswoman Gwen Graham agreed to run for Governor, but they were shocked when she was defeated by attorney John Morgan in the primary. In a manner representative of the Florida Democratic Party, they felt scorned by the primary defeat of their preferred candidate and failed to fully back up Morgan in his race with Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. Despite their inactivity, or perhaps because of it, Morgan managed to win anyway in the closest race of the night.

John Morgan – 49% (D+1)
Adam Putnam – 48%

Georgia:
Along with Arizona, Georgia was another Republican state that Democrats were inspired to fight for after its relative closeness in 2016. The entrances of Republican Lt. Governor Casey Cagle and Democratic House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams cleared the fields for both parties, and allowed for a long general election campaign to begin even before the primaries. While Democrats failed to take down Ducey in Arizona, the open seat in Georgia along with the state’s Democratic trend combined with Trump’s unpopularity to send a Democrat to the Governor’s mansion for the first time in 20 years.

Stacey Abrams – 50% (D+1)
Casey Cagle – 47%

Hawaii:
David Ige – 98%
Write-ins – 2%

Idaho:
Russ Fulcher – 54%
A.J. Balukoff – 41%

Illinois:
Incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner had pledged to personally spend several million dollars in his campaign, so Democrats decided that the best course of action would be to nominate a billionaire of their own. Having flirted for months with a run, venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker entered the race with a promise to self-fund his campaign. After a long and negative battle, and one of the most expensive governor races in American history, Rauner’s stint in the deeply Democratic state was cut short.

J.B. Pritzker – 51% (D+1)
Bruce Rauner – 45%

Iowa:
Kim Reynolds – 53%
Andy McGuire – 44%

Kansas
Kansas was potentially ripe for the picking after eight years of a deeply unpopular Brownback Administration, but Democrats struggled in finding good candidates to run. While they could not persuade 2014 nominee Paul Davis to run again, they did at least get what they considered a somewhat decent recruit in former U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom. On the Republican side, a tough battle between Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach eventually ended in victory for the controversial Kobach. Kansas Democrats fought tirelessly to prevent Kobach, a man they hated with a passion, from becoming Governor, but that is exactly what happened in November. In the end, Kris Kobach successfully distanced himself from Governor Brownback’s unpopularity while taking advantage of the Republican lean in the state.

Kris Kobach – 52%
Barry Grissom – 44%