Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017

[Njall]

If chosen as leader and elected in 2019, Schweitzer will roll the minimum wage back from $15/hr to $12.20/hr.

[mileslunn]

If chosen as leader and elected in 2019, Schweitzer will roll the minimum wage back from $15/hr to $12.20/hr.

Even if economically a smart idea (which depending on whom you ask different people will say different things) I cannot see that helping the UCP.  If they promised to freeze it at $15/hour and consult with the business community before allowing any more rises or check the results in other jurisdictions that would be more sellable.  I personally do not support raising the minimum wage to $15/hour (I think $12 to $13/hour is reasonable) but I think cutting the minimum wage especially when you have 20% of Albertans making below $15/hour is going to be a very tough sell.  That being said his chances of winning are low so he is probably more throwing out ideas to get attention and depending on the public response Kenney or Jean (whichever of the two wins) can gage best on that whether it is a good or bad idea to proceed on.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can already see the NDP ads now.

"Doug Schweitzer and the UCP want to take your hard earned money away."

"Doug Schweitzer and the UCP think you don't deserve a raise. And as a matter of fact, he wants to take money out of your pockets."

"Doug Schweitzer and the UCP think you don't deserve the money you already make, and h wants to reduce your wages even more."

[Hatman 🍁]

It's all moot, because Doug Schweitzer is not going to win.

[mileslunn]

It's all moot, because Doug Schweitzer is not going to win.

Good point, Kenney said he opposes the increases in minimum wage, but will not roll it back if he wins.  I suspect Brian Jean the only one who might be able to beat Kenney will probably say a similar thing.  While Jason Kenney is the favoured to win the UCP leadership race, I believe Brian Jean would perform better in a general election than Kenney.  Kenney does well in Calgary, while Rural Alberta will vote massively UCP no matter what, in Edmonton Jean is within striking distance of the NDP while Kenney is well back.  Otherwise with Kenney I think the NDP would sweep Edmonton whereas Jean would probably at least win a few seats in the city.

[Njall]

Three more endorsements from the UCP Caucus came out today. MLAs Jason Nixon (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre) and Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays) have endorsed Jason Kenney, while MLA Wayne Drysdale (Grande Prairie-Wapiti) has endorsed Doug Schweitzer.

Nixon has stepped down as caucus Whip in order to make this endorsement, and Deputy Leader Mike Ellis will be taking over the Whip's duties for now (which theoretically are minimal, since the Legislature doesn't even sit until after the leadership election). Nixon also stated that it is likely that him and McIver will be stepping down as caucus representatives on the party's Interim Joint Board.

Of note, Drysdale was the only sitting PC MLA to endorse Richard Starke over Jason Kenney in the recent PC leadership election.

[mileslunn]

Do you think the fact the polls show Jean would fare better against Notley and has a more positive approval rating than Kenney will have any impact.  It seems Kenney is the favourite within the party, but they would do better in a general election with Jean than Kenney.

[Njall]

Do you think the fact the polls show Jean would fare better against Notley and has a more positive approval rating than Kenney will have any impact.  It seems Kenney is the favourite within the party, but they would do better in a general election with Jean than Kenney.

I doubt it. I've seen spin on those polls from the Kenney camp that it's a bad thing that Jean does better amongst the general public because he would supposedly attract some (small-l) liberal support, and the Kenney supporters would rather back a "true" conservative.

Jean's getting character-assassinated by both the Kenney and Callaway camps, and I think Kenney's brought in too many people who are loyal to him personally for Jean to pull off a victory.

[mileslunn]

Do you think the fact the polls show Jean would fare better against Notley and has a more positive approval rating than Kenney will have any impact.  It seems Kenney is the favourite within the party, but they would do better in a general election with Jean than Kenney.

I doubt it. I've seen spin on those polls from the Kenney camp that it's a bad thing that Jean does better amongst the general public because he would supposedly attract some (small-l) liberal support, and the Kenney supporters would rather back a "true" conservative.

Jean's getting character-assassinated by both the Kenney and Callaway camps, and I think Kenney's brought in too many people who are loyal to him personally for Jean to pull off a victory.

But don't they realize even in Alberta going too far to the right is a way to lose what should be an easily winneable election.  Alberta is Canada's most conservative province but is a slightly right of centre, not hard right one.  More than half the population are in the two largest cities and you don't win in either by tacking too much to the right.  Now to be fair since Kenney is from Calgary, I don't think it will make too much difference in Calgary on whom they choose, it will more be Edmonton and some of the smaller urban centres elsewhere as well as suburbs in the Capital region where it matters.  Both will face an uphill battle in Edmonton but I think with Jean they could win a few seats there while Kenney would likely ensure another shutout.

[Njall]

The UCP held their first leadership debate last night. If anyone's interested in watching it, the video feed is available on the UCP Facebook page.

Also: UCP MLA Rick Fraser (Calgary-South East), formerly a PC, is leaving the UCP caucus to sit as an independent.

[harpercanuck]

Jason Kenney is the best choice for leader of UCP in Alberta. A solid social conservative and economic conservative. His experience in Ottawa serving every top cabinet job and he appeals to immigrant voters.
Kenney for Premier

[Njall]

I've been neglecting to update this over the last month or so, but today is the big day, so I figured I'd post a quick re-cap of the race:

UCP members have been able to vote since Thursday morning, and polls are open for about 3.5 more hours (until 5:00pm MDT). Around 60,000 of the UCP's approximately 110,000 members registered to vote, and an update from the UCP last night said that around 80% of registered members had voted by that point.

I don't believe that this was previously mentioned, but little known leadership candidate and former WRP President Jeff Callaway dropped out of the race a number of weeks ago to back Jason Kenney. This was a surprise to almost no one, as it had always seemed that Callaway's sole purpose in the race was to attack Brian Jean from the former WRP part of the UCP.

Members are voting with preferential ballots between the three remaining leadership candidates: Brian Jean, Jason Kenney, and Doug Schweitzer.

To be quite frank, nothing super serious has happened on the policy end of things. Fiscally/economically-speaking, all three favour more-or-less the same outcomes, although their personal blueprints for getting there may have slight variations. The candidates are most differentiated by their stances, both real and publicly-perceived, on social issues, with Kenney being the most conservative, Schweitzer being the most progressive (though he insists on calling himself a "social moderate"), and Jean taking a vaguely libertarian stance.

It is widely thought that Kenney has the race sewn up. If this proves to be true, it would likely prove to be the best outcome for parties opposing the UCP, as Kenney is a much more publicly-polarizing figure than Jean or Schweitzer.

In terms of caucus endorsements, Jean and Kenney are tied at 11 MLAs each. Schweitzer has one MLA endorsement, while three MLAs have remained "neutral" due to holding caucus leadership positions (I put neutral in quotation marks because at least two of the three are thought to be quietly backing Kenney). For those interested, caucus endorsements break down as follows:

Jean:

• Leela Aheer (Chestermere-Rocky View)
• Wayne Anderson (Highwood)
• Dave Hanson (Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills)
• Todd Loewen (Grande Prairie-Smoky)
• Don MacIntyre (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
• Ron Orr (Lacombe-Ponoka)
• Angela Pitt (Airdrie)
• Dave Schneider (Little Bow)
• Pat Stier (Livingstone-Macleod)
• Glenn van Dijken (Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock)
• Tany Yao (Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo)

Kenney:

• Drew Barnes (Cypress-Medicine Hat)
• Scott Cyr (Bonnyville-Cold Lake)
• Prab Gill (Calgary-Greenway)
• Grant Hunter (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
• Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays)
• Jason Nixon (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre)
• Prasad Panda (Calgary-Foothills)
• Dave Rodney (Calgary-Lougheed)
• Mark Smith (Drayton Valley-Devon)
• Rick Strankman (Drumheller-Stettler)
• Wes Taylor (Battle River-Wainwright)

Schweitzer:

• Wayne Drysdale (Grande Prairie-Wapiti)

Neutral:

• Nathan Cooper (Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills ; Interim Leader)
• Mike Ellis (Calgary-West ; Deputy Leader)
• Richard Gotfried (Calgary-Fish Creek ; House Leader)

The federal Conservative caucus has also largely made their voices heard in the race with endorsements. Of the 29 Conservative MPs, 24 have made endorsements, and 23 of those endorsements have gone to Kenney. Only Blaine Calkins (Red Deer--Lacombe) has backed Jean. The only MPs who have not made endorsements are: Zaid Aboultaif (Edmonton Manning), Stephanie Kusie (Calgary Midnapore), Mike Lake (Edmonton--Wetaskiwin), Len Webber (Calgary Confederation), and David Yurdiga (Fort McMurray--Cold Lake).


Finally, I'll note that results will be announced shortly after the polls close at 5:00pm. I imagine the UCP will be live-streaming on Facebook.

[mileslunn]

My prediction is Kenney wins it, but I think Jean would be a better choice in terms of electability.

[RogueBeaver]

Kenney has won 61-31.

[mileslunn]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

[Hatman 🍁]

Very good news for the NDP in the 2023 election.

[DC Al Fine]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

[adma]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

The implication being: he could be another Jim Prentice?

[DC Al Fine]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

The implication being: he could be another Jim Prentice?

Possibly.

Being leader during an election campaign requires a unique skill set. You pick people you think will succeed, but sometimes their abilities don't quite transfer over.

[mileslunn]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

The implication being: he could be another Jim Prentice?

Definitely possible although the anger at the NDP is pretty strong so they will have to improve considerably in popularity to have a shot.  Many who voted NDP last time did so as a protest vote not realizing they might actually win, in many ways similar to the NDP win in 1990 in Ontario.  That being said Kenney's overconfidence and the fact he is more right wing than past PC leaders were could make it more competitive than some might imagine.

[Hatman 🍁]

The difference being the NDP government in Alberta is 1000x more competent than the one we had in Ontario. Albertans are spoiled rotten.

[mileslunn]

The difference being the NDP government in Alberta is 1000x more competent than the one we had in Ontario. Albertans are spoiled rotten.

I think the rapid rise in the debt though is a big concern.  It was $19 billion when they came to office will be $70 billion by 2019 and will almost certainly go over $100 billion if re-elected so there are very legitimate concerns the NDP is not showing any kind of fiscal restraint.  Off course many may not like the slash and burn either and in some ways the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party are trying to offer a middle of the road plan to balance the budget without big spending cuts.  That being said Harper even in 2015 got 59.5% so the NDP will need to win over a sizeable number of those who voted Conservative federally to have a shot again.  That being said I think Kenney will do worse than that, I am guessing he will get in the low 50s while the NDP around 30% but wouldn't be surprised if things are even tighter. 

I've found in politics people generally tend to vote for parties that are philosophically similar to them and in Alberta unlike most provinces more people lean right than lean left thus the advantage to the UCP.  Yes that is changing as millennials in Alberta like elsewhere are more progressive than conservative, but with Boomers being about a 70/30 split in favour of conservatism that is too big a margin to overcome so I think once the boomers start to die off you will see progressive parties winning more often in Alberta not just provincially but also federal seats too.