Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

When does poll close and any link to results ?

Here is the official results page of the BMI (Interior Ministry), which will be activated at 5pm (11 am Eastern) when all polls have closed:

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at (For 2013 results, go here: http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at)

The ORF will also have a results page, as will all the other TV channels and newspapers.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ out with a last mobilization effort, warning of a renewed ÖVP-FPÖ coalition and a cabinet of horrors:



Meanwhile, I talked with my other brother (the one who usually never votes) and he'll vote for Kurz this time ...

[mgop]

are there any polls by state?

[Tender Branson]

So far in my immediate family, there are 2 SPÖ voters (myself, my sister), 2 ÖVP voters (my brothers) and 1 FPÖ voter (my mom). The neighbour of my mom said he'll vote NEOS.

One of my uncles will vote for Kurz, one for Strache. My aunt for the ÖVP. In my company, those who I talked with are pretty mixed, but there's a strong love for Strache/FPÖ in the production/truck driver section of the company (nothing surprising really). In the office part of the company, Kurz seems to be ahead.

[Tender Branson]

are there any polls by state?

Meaningless, old ones.

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Also:



http://www.fes.de/de/strategy-debates-global/strategy-debates-austria

PILZ is missing, but they would be in the left-libertarian corner (to the NW of the SPÖ).

[TheSaint250]

So ÖVP is more to the right than FPÖ?

[Polkergeist]

Are there any exit polls? Are they any good?

[Boomer sooner]

So ÖVP is more to the right than FPÖ?

It’s normal for Nationalist conservative parties to be more economically left wing then the standard Conservative party. You see the same thing with trump, the National front and the AFD.

[Tender Branson]

Are there any exit polls? Are they any good?

Austria doesn't have exit polls. But there is an election weekend survey by SORA for the ORF which analyzes how subgroups voted.

The first projection after 5pm is based on already counted precincts and historically this projection is very good. The FPÖ is usually overrated by about one percent though.

Also: it is ELECTION DAY and past 6am in the morning and the first polls have already opened at airports, train stations and overzealous towns. Most precincts will open between 7am and 9am. Most close at 5pm but the Swiss minded state of Vorarlberg will already close at 1pm.

A notice about postal ballots: about 890.000 were requested, of which some 780.000 will be cast. The vast majority of postal ballots will be counted on Monday, but some 50.000 will also be counted on Thursday. That has to do with the mail-in vote (this will be counted on Monday) and Austria's three tier system of counting seats at the district, state and federal level. Take me for example: I'm a resident of Zell am See, but I could for example be on vacation in Vienna and cast my postal ballot there. But my vote has to be counted in the district of Zell am See for seat calculation purposes ! Therefore votes that are cast in districts other than your own will have to be brought back to the district of origin, protocollized and counted there.

[Tender Branson]

Just 1 vote missing to 100 in the poll on top !

Also: my sister has Whatsapped me that she and her boyfriend just voted.

Plus: a first turnout report for Vienna (10am) should come at 11am. The increase in postal ballots in Vienna is worth 3.5%, so if turnout at 10am is the same as in 2013 - it would already be higher.

[rob in cal]

  I'll be interested to see how well the FPO does among the blue collar workers of Austria, most likely the FPO will continue the trend of working class voters=nationalist/populist electoral outcome.  Historic day in the offing.  Would be fascinating to see the Pilz list overtake the Greens as well.

[Tender Branson]

 I'll be interested to see how well the FPO does among the blue collar workers of Austria, most likely the FPO will continue the trend of working class voters=nationalist/populist electoral outcome.  Historic day in the offing.  Would be fascinating to see the Pilz list overtake the Greens as well.

For the FPÖ's performance among blue-collar workers, several working-class districts in Vienna, such as Simmering, Favoriten in the South and Donaustadt, Floridsdorf in the North are worth watching.

Other than that, look for good FPÖ-performances in Upper Styria (which has a big steel and mining industry) and the Linz-Wels suburbs (VOEST steel works) in Upper Austria.

Also, the Graz suburbs (car manufacturing cluster, MAGNA etc.)

[Tender Branson]

Plus: a first turnout report for Vienna (10am) should come at 11am. The increase in postal ballots in Vienna is worth 3.5%, so if turnout at 10am is the same as in 2013 - it would already be higher.

Sry ... I forgot that the Constitutional Court ruled against releasing turnout (or any early vote reports) last year, because many precincts already close before 5pm.

[Dutch Conservative]

Austrians: enjoy your vote and lead the way in Europe! Very exciting day, i'm hoping the polls will proof to be right.

[DavidB.]

So no info whatsoever today before polls close? SAD!

[Tender Branson]

So no info whatsoever today before polls close? SAD!

Just came back home and no, so that voters are not influenced by these "news".

[Tender Branson]

Voting day pictures:

[Tender Branson]

Officially, I shouldn't post it, but because this is a US Forum I probably still can:

According to several Twitter reports from polling officials, turnout in Vienna and elsewhere is up by a lot compared with 2013.

[mgop]

when can we expect first results?

[Tender Branson]

when can we expect first results?

Polls close at 5pm.

5:10pm is when SORA will release their first projection.

This projection is already based on counted precincts and usually quite accurate (even though they tend to overestimate the FPÖ by about 1% in their first projection).

The first projection is also including an estimate for postal ballots, even though they are only counted tomorrow.

ORF live stream (should work abroad), which starts at 4:30pm:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-17-Die-Hochrechnung/13934392

[mgop]

when can we expect first results?

Polls close at 5pm.

5:10pm is when SORA will release their first projection.

This projection is already based on counted precincts and usually quite accurate (even though they tend to overestimate the FPÖ by about 1% in their first projection).

The first projection is also including an estimate for postal ballots, even though they are only counted tomorrow.

ORF live stream (should work abroad), which starts at 4:30pm:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-17-Die-Hochrechnung/13934392

thanks!

[Tender Branson]

The Green-leader in Vorarlberg and polling officials in Tyrol (which also has the 2026 Winter Olympics Referendum today) are also reporting a mega-turnout.

Hopefully it is true.

[Tender Branson]

I'm updating my turnout forecast to 79-83%, based on the reports of polling officials on Twitter.

[mvd10]

How would you vote in the Winter Olympics referendum? What are the stances of the political parties? If Dutch politics is any indication I suppose the centre-right supports it while the left and the far-right oppose?

[Tender Branson]

How would you vote in the Winter Olympics referendum? What are the stances of the political parties? If Dutch politics is any indication I suppose the centre-right supports it while the left and the far-right oppose?

I'd probably vote for it as long as the proposal is economical and ecological, but I'm not a resident of Tyrol.

Basically all parties (except FRITZ) are in favour, some more, some less, but no party has given a clear endorsement. Also, the Greens in Innsbruck are against - while the state Greens are slightly in favour.