Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[windjammer]

So it appears FPO fails to capitalize lol

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol there's an Austrian denk? Have they realised Austria has a threshold?

[Tender Branson]

So it appears FPO fails to capitalize lol

IMO, the FPÖ's best days are now over. They had their chances between the start of the mid-2015 immigration wave and Norbert Hofer's 49.7% result in the May 2016 presidential runoff (and almost won a stunning upset if Faymann didn't resign a few weeks earlier).

Since then, the FPÖ is on the way down again. Trump's election victory played a role, which also led to a decline in other European far right-wing parties. Kurz and to a small extent Kern are eating into the FPÖ's vote and even Pilz could by attracting some protest voters. And even the small parties, if they are on the ballot could be bad for the FPÖ. If all of them get some 0.3%, they would cost the FPÖ some seats. In fact, nothing political that came from the FPÖ recently improved their chances. For example, it was the killing of an old Austrian couple by a Tunisian Muslim IS-sympathizer and his FPÖ-hatred that plays into the hands of the FPÖ ...

Lol there's an Austrian denk? Have they realised Austria has a threshold?

A very meaningless small-party IMO (which is also close to the Turkish AKP). They have no funding really and only exist in rudimentary form in Vorarlberg and Vienna. Most people with a migration background vote for the established parties anyway. If they make it onto the ballot, they won't get more than 0.3% of the vote ...

[Tender Branson]

Next weekend, at least 3 new polls will be released:

* Research Affairs (Friday)
* Unique Research (Sat.)
* The first NEWS magazine poll (Sat.)

[Tender Branson]

A new internal ÖVP-poll by GfK, reported by the Kurier newspaper (n=1000, July 11-12):



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/spoe-startet-mit-pech-und-pannen/275.307.045

[TheSaint250]

Is this evidence of Pilz taking FPÖ votes? Also could any coalitions be formed using that poll?

[Tender Branson]

Is this evidence of Pilz taking FPÖ votes? Also could any coalitions be formed using that poll?

It's an internal ÖVP-poll, so take it with some caution.

We need to wait a little longer (for example until next weekend, when 3 new polls are out).

I think Pilz would attract votes from all parties, yes. He's attractive for protest voters, which usually vote for the FPÖ. And he could get a significant amount of previous non-voters.

For coalitions, it's too early to tell.

[TheSaint250]

Thank you!

[Tender Branson]

It's important to note that the FPÖ has lost 13% since the election of Trump in November and the runoff loss by Hofer in early December - when they were polling at 35%.

But the Greens lost too: They were at 14-15% then and they are down to 7.5%.

So, FPÖ+Greens lost a combined 20% in the past 9 months. Probably a reflection of the strong FPÖ+Green mobilisation in the presidential campaign at that time, followed by a less dominant immigration situation and the collapse of the Greens over the past half year.

In the meantime, most of the 20% has gone to the ÖVP which gained 13% since late last year and to the proposed Pilz list. It seems protest voters are shifting away from the far-right and left fringes and back to the center ...

[TheSaint250]

FPÖ will most likely underperform.  As you said, it's been happening everywhere with those right-wing populist parties.  They will probably come below the SPÖ.  I get this feeling that there might be another grand coalition.

Just a note: ever since Brexit all of my predictions have been horribly off.  FPÖ might end up get over 50% of the vote for all I know XD

[rob in cal]

  Also isn't the fact that Kurz is fairly close to the FPO on its signature issue of migration a big reason for FPO voters going to OVP.  So in a way that's a FPO victory, not for the party itself, but for actually accomplishing something meaningful in that other parties might be starting to adopt some of its policies.

[TheSaint250]

  Also isn't the fact that Kurz is fairly close to the FPO on its signature issue of migration a big reason for FPO voters going to OVP.  So in a way that's a FPO victory, not for the party itself, but for actually accomplishing something meaningful in that other parties might be starting to adopt some of its policies.

You're right on that

[Tender Branson]

  Also isn't the fact that Kurz is fairly close to the FPO on its signature issue of migration a big reason for FPO voters going to OVP.  So in a way that's a FPO victory, not for the party itself, but for actually accomplishing something meaningful in that other parties might be starting to adopt some of its policies.

It's still better if these people vote for centrist parties such as the ÖVP, rather than the FPÖ. Some might also vote for Pilz. Besides, the sentiment has always been there for a tough policy against criminal immigrants or only accepting a small number of (economic) migrants and asylum seekers. This is not a new thing. Of course there are 3 major factors which played into the hands of the FPÖ in recent years: The economic meltdown after 2008, which increased unemployment not just in Austria but everywhere and the number of people in precarious employment. Then, the immigration wave in 2015 which resulted in a loss of control by the government and a huge distrust against the established parties. This is getting better now: the economy in Austria is on solid footing again, growing by 2.5% in the first half this year, unemployment and immigration is down. Wages are up. In the end, it was not an FPÖ-victory that voters and mainstream parties took up some of their policies, it was a natural reaction to socio-economic developments during the last decade.

[Tender Branson]

Ulrike Lunacek's summer interview on PULS 4 will start in a few minutes.

Will post the results of her performance (according to the OGM live poll) tomorrow, but I guess her results won't be too hot - after the Green's self-destruction mode in the recent months ...

[Tender Branson]

Ulrike Lunacek's summer interview on PULS 4 will start in a few minutes.

Will post the results of her performance (according to the OGM live poll) tomorrow, but I guess her results won't be too hot - after the Green's self-destruction mode in the recent months ...

IMO, Lunacek's performance was OK, she's a good debater.

But the overall picture of the Greens is still epic fail.

[Tender Branson]

Ulrike Lunacek's summer interview on PULS 4 will start in a few minutes.

Will post the results of her performance (according to the OGM live poll) tomorrow, but I guess her results won't be too hot - after the Green's self-destruction mode in the recent months ...

IMO, Lunacek's performance was OK, she's a good debater.

But the overall picture of the Greens is still epic fail.

Poll results:

Only 1/3 said she has leadership qualities.

Just 29% said she was convincing on the issues.

Only 26% said Lunacek represents their values and positions.

27% said Lunacek convinced overall in the debate.

Convincing by party supporters:

29% SPÖ
16% ÖVP
  3% FPÖ
63% Greens
57% NEOS

[Kingpoleon]

New Profil magazine poll about Strache as Chancellor and the FPÖ in government:

"Do you support or oppose Strache as Chancellor in an FPÖ-led government ?"

28% support
62% oppose

"Do you support or oppose the FPÖ being in the next government as junior partner ?"

41% support
48% oppose

* FPÖ being first and someone else as FPÖ-Chancellor was not asked, because Strache has always said that if the FPÖ wins the election, he wants to become Chancellor himself.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kanzler-strache-8231461

Remind me again: Strache is on the more mainstream wing of the party, relative to Hofer, correct?

[Tender Branson]

New Profil magazine poll about Strache as Chancellor and the FPÖ in government:

"Do you support or oppose Strache as Chancellor in an FPÖ-led government ?"

28% support
62% oppose

"Do you support or oppose the FPÖ being in the next government as junior partner ?"

41% support
48% oppose

* FPÖ being first and someone else as FPÖ-Chancellor was not asked, because Strache has always said that if the FPÖ wins the election, he wants to become Chancellor himself.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kanzler-strache-8231461

Remind me again: Strache is on the more mainstream wing of the party, relative to Hofer, correct?

No, it's the other way around: Hofer is the moderate one, Strache used to be the radical one and the attack dog. But recently he tries to be more calm like Hofer.

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz pulled the next top-level recruit on board today:



Maria Großbauer (37), organizer of the famous Vienna Opera Ball, classical musician, author and event manager.

She'll run as 6th on the ÖVP list. Großbauer (who will not become an ÖVP-party member) is a solid recruit for Kurz, because she serves as a role model for young women and because of her classical music background in Vienna she'll also attract a lot of Vienna's culture-loving older, wealthy bourgeoisie voters.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nr-wahl-oevp-listenplatz-fuer-opernball-organisatorin-grossbauer/275.633.549

[mvd10]

New Profil magazine poll about Strache as Chancellor and the FPÖ in government:

"Do you support or oppose Strache as Chancellor in an FPÖ-led government ?"

28% support
62% oppose

"Do you support or oppose the FPÖ being in the next government as junior partner ?"

41% support
48% oppose

* FPÖ being first and someone else as FPÖ-Chancellor was not asked, because Strache has always said that if the FPÖ wins the election, he wants to become Chancellor himself.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kanzler-strache-8231461

Remind me again: Strache is on the more mainstream wing of the party, relative to Hofer, correct?

No, it's the other way around: Hofer is the moderate one, Strache used to be the radical one and the attack dog. But recently he tries to be more calm like Hofer.

But wasn't Hofer's moderate image mainly caused by him being a calm and nice person?

Sebastian Kurz pulled the next top-level recruit on board today:



Maria Großbauer (37), organizer of the famous Vienna Opera Ball, classical musician, author and event manager.

She'll run as 6th on the ÖVP list. Großbauer (who will not become an ÖVP-party member) is a solid recruit for Kurz, because she serves as a role model for young women and because of her classical music background in Vienna she'll also attract a lot of Vienna's culture-loving older, wealthy bourgeoisie voters.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nr-wahl-oevp-listenplatz-fuer-opernball-organisatorin-grossbauer/275.633.549

Who did they vote for before this? Old, wealthy and bourgeoise screams ÖVP to me. Or are they like our "salonsocialisten" in the Grachtengordel (wealthy PvdA/social democratic voters)?

[Tender Branson]

New Profil magazine poll about Strache as Chancellor and the FPÖ in government:

"Do you support or oppose Strache as Chancellor in an FPÖ-led government ?"

28% support
62% oppose

"Do you support or oppose the FPÖ being in the next government as junior partner ?"

41% support
48% oppose

* FPÖ being first and someone else as FPÖ-Chancellor was not asked, because Strache has always said that if the FPÖ wins the election, he wants to become Chancellor himself.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kanzler-strache-8231461

Remind me again: Strache is on the more mainstream wing of the party, relative to Hofer, correct?

No, it's the other way around: Hofer is the moderate one, Strache used to be the radical one and the attack dog. But recently he tries to be more calm like Hofer.

But wasn't Hofer's moderate image mainly caused by him being a calm and nice person?

Sebastian Kurz pulled the next top-level recruit on board today:



Maria Großbauer (37), organizer of the famous Vienna Opera Ball, classical musician, author and event manager.

She'll run as 6th on the ÖVP list. Großbauer (who will not become an ÖVP-party member) is a solid recruit for Kurz, because she serves as a role model for young women and because of her classical music background in Vienna she'll also attract a lot of Vienna's culture-loving older, wealthy bourgeoisie voters.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nr-wahl-oevp-listenplatz-fuer-opernball-organisatorin-grossbauer/275.633.549

Who did they vote for before this? Old, wealthy and bourgeoise screams ÖVP to me. Or are they like our "salonsocialisten" in the Grachtengordel (wealthy PvdA/social democratic voters)?

Yeah. They always voted ÖVP but in recent years also for NEOS and the LIF. And some for the Greens.

This might help to win them back and improve the historically bad position of the ÖVP in Vienna.

[Tender Branson]

Ex-Green "investigator" Peter Pilz will announce as early as this weekend what he'll do. According to him, he received thousands of emails with support messages over the last few weeks and a couple thousand volunteers are ready to campaign or run for his left-populist list.

Yesterday, he met with a core of 20 supporters to talk about how such a list might look like.

http://derstandard.at/2000061403231/Peter-Pilz-lernt-seine-Kandidaten-kennen

Another sign that he'll jump in is that his personal website is now down and being re-organized:

www.peterpilz.at

The potential of a left-populist "Peter Pilz List" is somewhere between 5-15%, according to polls.

[TheSaint250]

What are some of his core issues that would classify him as a left-wing populist?

[Tender Branson]

The "Krone" is reporting a new IMAS poll, which has the following result:

35% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
11% Greens
  3% NEOS
  2% Others

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/umfrage-prophezeit-kurz-einen-erdrutschsieg-35-prozent-fuer-oevp-chef-story-579214

---

Meanwhile, the OÖN newspaper is reporting a new internal ÖVP poll for Upper Austria - which is the most important battleground state in Austria. The party that wins Upper Austria also wins Austria as a whole.

The results:

32.5% ÖVP (+7)
28.5% SPÖ (+1)
24.5% FPÖ (+3)

The poll has Greens and NEOS losing relative to 2013.

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/VP-Umfrage-Blau-hinter-Rot-in-Oberoesterreich;art383,2626925

[Tender Branson]

What are some of his core issues that would classify him as a left-wing populist?

Peter Pilz was once a Marxist during his student years and later an activist, protesting against environmental destruction near Vienna and a founding member of the Greens. Later he became a key investigator against several high-profile corruption cases. On social issues, he's a regular Green or leftist. But when it comes to political Islam and extremist Muslims, he's not turning a blind eye to the issues like the delusional, naive "Remnant Greens". He's willing to expose the problems  with the Islamic Community, the financing from outside (Turkey/Saudi Arabia) and he's willing to strip illegal Turkish citizens of their Austrian citizenship.

Summed up: Peter Pilz is like me, someone who dared to speak about nasty developments when it comes to Muslims and immigrants, increasing crimes like murders and rapes and the indoctrination of Muslim kids in kindergartens with racist, sexist, anti-semitic propaganda. And someone who got alienated from the delusional, naive "Remnant Greens".