Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Oryxslayer]

First Vienna Result is the 1st inner City.

Greens get 5.6%, 11.6% down on 2013.

[DL]

I suppose the new Pilz party would also have eaten into the Green vote

[Tender Branson]

New SORA projection:

ÖVP: 31,6 %
SPÖ: 26,9 %
FPÖ: 26,0 %
NEOS: 5,1 %
Pilz: 4,3 %
Greens: 3,9 %
Others: 2,2 %

[Tender Branson]

Tyrol Referendum on the 2026 Winter Olympics:

50.8% currently say NO

A big surprise.

[Oryxslayer]

I a shock, the ÖVP won the direct vote in Styria by .31% over the FPÖ. Di you think it's possible for the FPÖ to make up the vote in portals?

[Tender Branson]

93% of the precincts in Vienna are already counted.

Shouldn't take long until all of Austria is counted for today.

Postal ballots tomorrow and on Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

In a shock, the ÖVP won the direct vote in Styria by .31% over the FPÖ. Do you think it's possible for the FPÖ to make up the vote in postals?

Nope. The ÖVP historically gains with postal votes, the FPÖ loses a lot.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Disgusting results.  Kurz or whatever his stupid name is is as racist and xenophobic as FPO, if not worse.

[Tender Branson]

If Styria is any indicator for Austria as a whole, turnout will end up between 79-81% after all postal ballots are counted.

[DL]

What is more likely now? A OVP FPO coalition or an OVP SPO coalition?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is more likely now? A OVP FPO coalition or an OVP SPO coalition?

There is very little chance of a grand coalition after the disastrous collapse of the government and dirty election. Heck, an SPÖ/FPÖ government is likelier.

[Tender Branson]

Zell am See (district) fully counted:

39% ÖVP (+12%)
27% FPÖ (+4%)
22% SPÖ (-5%)
  4% NEOS (+1%)
  2% Pilz (+2%)
  2% Greens (-8%)
  2% FLÖ (+2%)
  1% Others

72% for right-wing parties.

This will change a bit with the postal count, but still ... wow ! Plus: LOL @ the 2% for the Greens.

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg (state) fully counted:

38% ÖVP (+11%)
26% FPÖ (+5%)
22% SPÖ (-1%)
  5% NEOS (+1%)
  4% Greens (-11%)
  3% Pilz (+3%)
  1% FLÖ (+1%)
  2% Others

Turnout likely some 80% with postal ballots.

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia fully counted:

33% FPÖ (+15%)
29% SPÖ (-3%)
26% ÖVP (+11%)
  4% NEOS (n.c.)
  3% Pilz (+3%)
  2% Greens (-10%)
  2% Others

[Hydera]

I hope the greens end up staying out but its likely with postal ballots they'll make it just barely.

[America Needs R'hllor]

These results are much better than expected! It looks like the SPO overperformed, no?

[Tender Branson]

Vienna now fully counted:

35% SPÖ (+3)
23% FPÖ (+3)
21% ÖVP (+6)
  7% Pilz (+7)
  6% NEOS (-2)
  5% Greens (-11)
  3% Others

After postal votes, you can expect FPÖ to lose 1.5% and the ÖVP to gain 1%, Pilz, Greens and NEOS will also gain a bit.

[Tender Branson]

Only 2 cities remain to be counted in Tyrol and we have a final result for today.

The other 2098 cities are all counted.

[Tender Branson]

The ballot initiative for hosting the 2026 Winter Olympics in Tyrol was rejected by a 53-47 margin.

This is surprising, because almost all parties were more-or-less for hosting them.

[Tender Branson]

All 2100 cities are now fully counted, the last city in Tyrol (=> Kufstein) has come in 5 minutes ago.

The Interior Ministry still has to update their page though:

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at

[Tender Branson]

FINAL result (without the 800.000 returned postal ballots which are counted tomorrow and on Thursday):

31.4% ÖVP (will rise to 32% with postal ballots)
27.4% FPÖ (will drop to 26%)
26.7% SPÖ (will remain at 27%)
  5.0% NEOS (will rise a bit)
  4.1% PILZ (will rise a bit)
  3.3% Greens (will rise, but it will be a cliffhanger if they make the 4% threshold)
  2.1% Others

Turnout will rise to some 80% with the postal ballots.

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at

[Tender Branson]

The pollster OGM (which has historically been the best pollster), has nailed it once again:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Austrian_legislative_election,_2017

They only overestimated the ÖVP by 1% and underestimated the FPÖ by 1% - but absolutely nailed every other party.

[palandio]

 3.3% Greens (will rise, but it will be a cliffhanger if they make the 4% threshold)

Given that there are only ca. 800,000 postal votes vs. ca. 4.3 million precinct votes, the Green vote share of the postal votes would have to be more than double their vote share in the precincts. So I think that it is almost safe to assume that they are out.

[Tender Branson]

With the Greens currently out of parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS would have a 2/3 majority in parliament, a constitution-changing supermajority. By 1 seat.

In parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS recently voted YES on a proposal to introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake (but in the outgoing parliament they had no supermajority).

So it will depend on the Greens if their 1-seat supermajority holds ...

[palandio]

I find it more likely that the FPÖ loses more due to postal votes than the ÖVP wins and that therefore one seat would go from the FPÖ toward SPÖ, NEOS or PILZ.