Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15
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Poll
Question: How would you vote in the Oct. 15 election ?
#1
SPÖ
#2
ÖVP
#3
FPÖ
#4
Greens
#5
NEOS
#6
PILZ
#7
KPÖ+
#8
FLÖ
#9
G!LT
#10
Whites
#11
For a small regional party
#12
I'd vote invalid
#13
I'd stay home
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15  (Read 192159 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1625 on: October 15, 2017, 02:10:53 PM »

With the Greens currently out of parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS would have a 2/3 majority in parliament, a constitution-changing supermajority. By 1 seat.

In parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS recently voted YES on a proposal to introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake (but in the outgoing parliament they had no supermajority).

So it will depend on the Greens if their 1-seat supermajority holds ... Tongue
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palandio
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« Reply #1626 on: October 15, 2017, 02:13:05 PM »

I find it more likely that the FPÖ loses more due to postal votes than the ÖVP wins and that therefore one seat would go from the FPÖ toward SPÖ, NEOS or PILZ.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1627 on: October 15, 2017, 02:13:44 PM »

Because of that it can be fairly said that the RIGHT clearly won this election.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1628 on: October 15, 2017, 02:15:07 PM »

I find it more likely that the FPÖ loses more due to postal votes than the ÖVP wins and that therefore one seat would go from the FPÖ toward SPÖ, NEOS or PILZ.

Hopefully, the ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS supermajority holds. I really like the idea of a constitutional deficit and debt break, like the Swiss have it.
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Hydera
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« Reply #1629 on: October 15, 2017, 02:20:35 PM »

Tender regarding immigration what was FPÖ platform on the issue? Considering the  FPÖ would likely give the ÖVP most of what it wants on economic issues in return for them supporting their measures on immigration.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #1630 on: October 15, 2017, 02:21:06 PM »

New sites reporting that the OVP underwent a revamp to make it more anti-immigrant and euroskeptic. I thought just the opposite. I thought they were trying to ape Macron. Is there some truth to these claims or is it just the media trying to make every story conform to their narrative of the "the far right rising"?

Still want an answer to this question. Also, what is the difference between the Greens and PILZ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1631 on: October 15, 2017, 02:22:19 PM »

I find it more likely that the FPÖ loses more due to postal votes than the ÖVP wins and that therefore one seat would go from the FPÖ toward SPÖ, NEOS or PILZ.

The SORA/ORF projection including the postal ballots still have a 123/183 seat majority (67.2%) for ÖVP-FPÖ-NEOS though.

But yeah, it will really come down to the Greens crossing the 4% or not and if the FPÖ loses a lot in the postal ballot count. I think it is unlikely that the Greens make it, because Pilz will also gain a good share in that count. But will he get an additional seat ? Don't know.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1632 on: October 15, 2017, 02:27:16 PM »

Tender regarding immigration what was FPÖ platform on the issue? Considering the  FPÖ would likely give the ÖVP most of what it wants on economic issues in return for them supporting their measures on immigration.

Being hard-line against further illegal immigration (they want zero immigration from economic migrants and swift deportations of criminal migrants) and a huge welfare cut for foreigners to zero (only a roof over the head in shelters, food and basic medical treatment).

That is something the ÖVP could work with, after Kurz adapted most of the FPÖ's platform in the past months.

New sites reporting that the OVP underwent a revamp to make it more anti-immigrant and euroskeptic. I thought just the opposite. I thought they were trying to ape Macron. Is there some truth to these claims or is it just the media trying to make every story conform to their narrative of the "the far right rising"?

Still want an answer to this question. Also, what is the difference between the Greens and PILZ?

See my post above.

The differences between the Greens and Pilz are not all too big, with the main difference being that Pilz is not as naive as the Greens on illegal immigration and the threat of political Islam in Austria.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1633 on: October 15, 2017, 02:31:08 PM »

Vote movement analysis between 2013 and 2017:

http://orf.at/wahl/nr17/#migration
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1634 on: October 15, 2017, 02:34:48 PM »

Election Day Survey (= our "Exit Poll") in English:



http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2017_aut-national-election_charts.pdf

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1635 on: October 15, 2017, 02:56:49 PM »

Kurz to deliver his victory speech soon.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1636 on: October 15, 2017, 02:58:42 PM »

Of 583k Green voters in 2013, 147k voted for the Greens again. 161k went to SPÖ, 84k to the ÖVP (!!), 67k to Pilz and 57k to NEOS.
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Hydera
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« Reply #1637 on: October 15, 2017, 03:04:35 PM »

Of 583k Green voters in 2013, 147k voted for the Greens again. 161k went to SPÖ, 84k to the ÖVP (!!), 67k to Pilz and 57k to NEOS.

My guess is that the Greens in Austria in 2013 was more similar to the german greens where there was a leftwing faction and a progmatic environmentalist centrist faction that had support from well to do/middle class voters. But the green campaign this year apparently turned them off so they decided to split to other parties.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1638 on: October 15, 2017, 03:25:47 PM »

Of 583k Green voters in 2013, 147k voted for the Greens again. 161k went to SPÖ, 84k to the ÖVP (!!), 67k to Pilz and 57k to NEOS.

Judgement Day.

PS: according to the ORFs Special 10pm news report, the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition will come quickly.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1639 on: October 15, 2017, 04:12:10 PM »

Of 583k Green voters in 2013, 147k voted for the Greens again. 161k went to SPÖ, 84k to the ÖVP (!!), 67k to Pilz and 57k to NEOS.

Judgement Day.

PS: according to the ORFs Special 10pm news report, the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition will come quickly.

Any news about adding NEOS?
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Boomer sooner
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« Reply #1640 on: October 15, 2017, 04:56:26 PM »

What exactly would the 3 parties of the right want to change in the Constitution? And could they all agree to change it?
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The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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« Reply #1641 on: October 15, 2017, 05:00:44 PM »

Nothing bad ever happens when you put a xenophobic Austrian in charge, right?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1642 on: October 15, 2017, 05:03:53 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2017, 05:08:52 PM by Acting Southern Delegate The Saint »

Nothing bad ever happens when you put a xenophobic Austrian in charge, right?

Wow
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1643 on: October 15, 2017, 05:48:00 PM »

Nothing bad ever happens when you put a xenophobic Austrian in charge, right?

#HotTake
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mvd10
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« Reply #1644 on: October 15, 2017, 06:03:44 PM »

So what is Kern going to do? 27% is a lot better than expected.
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JonHawk
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« Reply #1645 on: October 15, 2017, 06:41:12 PM »

Nothing bad ever happens when you put a xenophobic Austrian in charge, right?

L M A O


Anyway seems the FPO underperform slightly according to polls but might get record amount of seats... looks close seat-wise to 1999
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1646 on: October 15, 2017, 09:53:46 PM »

A couple maps I made of the results.

















My basemap had sh**tty border for Braunau am Inn, and I only realized it halfway through.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1647 on: October 15, 2017, 10:04:09 PM »

A far right nut is in power? I wonder what could go wrong...
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1648 on: October 16, 2017, 09:45:37 AM »

I always thought that is virtually impossible in parliamentary systems that the smaller party in a coalition government can outright win an election so that the roles just change.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1649 on: October 16, 2017, 11:30:17 AM »

Nothing bad ever happens when you put a xenophobic Austrian in charge, right?
maek u thnk
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