Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Good riddance.

To the Greens (I guess) ?

[TheSaint250]

Is there any chance that NEOS will enter the coalition?

No, but they could vote with an ÖVP/FPÖ government for a constitutional deficit and debt brake, which all 3 parties strongly want.

Ah ok

[JonHawk]

It is official:

The Greens have been obliterated by the Austrian voter and will not be represented in the next parliament.

Couldn't have happened to nicer party. Lets hope the Swedish Greens end up the same way

[DavidB.]

It appears as if all postal ballots have now been counted. Preliminary result:

ÖVP: 31.5 (+7.5), 62 seats (+15)
SPÖ: 26.9 (+0.1), 52 seats (+/-)
FPÖ: 26.0 (+5.5), 51 seats (+11)
NEOS: 5.3 (+0.3), 10 seats (+1)
Pilz: 4.4, 8 seats
Greens: 3.8 (-8.7), 0 seats (-24)


Turnout 79.4% (+4.5%)

[Tender Branson]

It appears as if all postal ballots have now been counted. Preliminary result:

ÖVP: 31.5 (+7.5), 62 seats (+15)
SPÖ: 26.9 (+0.1), 52 seats (+/-)
FPÖ: 26.0 (+5.5), 51 seats (+11)
NEOS: 5.3 (+0.3), 10 seats (+1)
Pilz: 4.4, 8 seats
Greens: 3.8 (-8.7), 0 seats (-24)

Turnout 79.4% (+4.5%)

Not all postal ballots:

The Standard reports that on Thursday some 36.800 ballots will be counted (as stated by election law) that were cast in electoral districts other than the own.

That means turnout will end up at 79.99% (lol) - because 38.000 votes would be needed to pass 80% ...

[Tender Branson]

The final result will be declared at some point on Thursday and President VdB will instruct Kurz to form a new government on Friday.

The new parliament will convene on November 9th.

[DavidB.]

How long does government formation in Austria usually take? How detailed are coalition agreements?

[Tender Branson]

How long does government formation in Austria usually take? How detailed are coalition agreements?

Could take 2 weeks or a month, or maye into January.

Nobody really knows.

For previous new governments it usually took no longer than a month (except for ÖVP-FPÖ in 1999 because the SPÖ won the election and was first to start talks). This formation took 4 months.

Usually, the coalition contract of common projects for the next term is vast, some 200-300 pages.

[Tender Branson]

A couple maps I made of the results.

(...)

My basemap had sh**tty border for Braunau am Inn, and I only realized it halfway through.

Thx, but would you be so kind to create new maps on Thursday when the final results are out ?

Your maps do not include postal ballots, which are almost 20% of the total vote and some district results changed.

Thx.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, I've got two other questions:

1.) Is NEOS' policy more like the Pirates' or more like the FDP's?
2.) Are Peter Pilz' political views (and that's his real name - wow) comparable with Boris Palmer's or Oswald Metzger's?

1. More like the FDP' (= virtually identical). The PP is way too left on social issues and the economy.

2. Don't know about Palmer and Metzger's views really.

[Tender Branson]

The Saxony AfD got a better result (27%) than the FPÖ (26%) ...

[palandio]

[...]
2.) Are Peter Pilz' political views (and that's his real name - wow) comparable with Boris Palmer's or Oswald Metzger's?

[...]
2. Don't know about Palmer and Metzger's views really.

Metzger was/is fiscally/economically conservative.
Palmer yesterday was a guest in the German talkshow hart aber fair, where he stated that Pilz was much more left-wing on welfare and economic issues than he (Palmer) himself.

Altogether I would say that Pilz is further to the left than Metzger and Palmer on most issues, particularly welfare/economy. But at the same time he managed to appeal to some "realo Green" voters better than the Greens because they could culturally identify better with him than with the original Greens.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, I don't know if you saw my previous post but do you have any insight into the various rural areas won by the SPO, places like Hallstat, that cluster of north central Styria, and areas surrounding Linz.  I'm guessing southern Carinthia has to do with the Slovenes?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What is Kurz's stance on social issues?

[Tender Branson]

Green Party leader Ingrid Felipe steps down as party leader.

Green Party frontrunner Ulrike Lunacek steps down from all her offices in the Green Party, including resigning her seat in the EU parliament. She's calling the Green defeat (= thrown out of parliament) a "disaster", but she'll continue to work for Green causes as a "private citizen".

Meanwhile, all 150 Green MPs and parliamentary aides have been registered at the AMS (the Austrian Labour Market Agency) so they can claim unemployment benefits ...

Secretly, the FPÖ is laughing somewhere today ...

[Tender Branson]

Austria as a whole voted for the Right by a 63-36 margin (GILT & Whites are neither right nor left).

Tyrol was the most right-wing state (70%), Vienna was tied (49.5 vs. 49.5)

Basically all states voted about 2/3 for the Right, except for Vienna.

In other words: If Vienna and some other big cities are left out, Austria's rural areas voted 70% for the Right.

[Tender Branson]

What is Kurz's stance on social issues?

What "social issues" are you talking about ?

[Tender Branson]

 Tender, I don't know if you saw my previous post but do you have any insight into the various rural areas won by the SPO, places like Hallstat, that cluster of north central Styria, and areas surrounding Linz.  I'm guessing southern Carinthia has to do with the Slovenes?

Austria on the district level has roughly the same electoral pattern since about the past 100 years.

The SPÖ is historically stronger than average in Carinthia and Upper Styria, Linz and suburbs, in and around Vienna and Gmunden (Hallstatt). This has been the case in the 1920s and is the case now.

Hallstatt (Gmunden) can be explained with many retired people and (like in other SPÖ-strongholds), employment in manufacturing (and historically not that much agriculture, which shaped the ÖVP areas).

Carinthia can partly be explained with the Slovene minority, yes.

[Tender Branson]

Strache (FPÖ) today: "We want to take responsibility in the country and we won't make the mistakes that we made in 2000".

Meanwhile, the SPÖVP government (traditionally) offered to resign today, which President VdB (traditionally) refused to accept. SPÖVP will therefore remain in office until a new government is sworn in.

[palandio]

Some of the areas Rob mentioned are not rural in the sense of historically agricultural.
Upper Styria's population is concentrated in the Mürz valley, which is historically heavily industrial (steel, railway, mining).
Linz and its suburbs have steel and other heavy industry as well.
The Hallstatt area has a mining tradition plus a protestant minority (which are historically related and both bad for the ÖVP).

But Tender is right. Electoral patterns go back at least 100 years, for SPÖ (SDAPDÖ), ÖVP (Christian Socials) and FPÖ (German Nationals, Rural Federation).

[mgop]

Green Party leader Ingrid Felipe steps down as party leader.

Green Party frontrunner Ulrike Lunacek steps down from all her offices in the Green Party, including resigning her seat in the EU parliament. She's calling the Green defeat (= thrown out of parliament) a "disaster", but she'll continue to work for Green causes as a "private citizen".

Meanwhile, all 150 Green MPs and parliamentary aides have been registered at the AMS (the Austrian Labour Market Agency) so they can claim unemployment benefits ...

Secretly, the FPÖ is laughing somewhere today ...

well this is just too good to be truth, perfect

[Tender Branson]

http://derstandard.at/2000066198328/Welche-Waehlergruppen-wohin-gewechselt-sind

Blue-collar workers had a shift of 26% to the FPÖ between 2013 and 2017, women shifted 6% more to the FPÖ.

Among people with a university degree, the FPÖ support dropped by 9%.

The Greens lost a ton of university- and highschool degree holders to the SPÖ and ÖVP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Tender Branson]

Thx for the map

Here is the clickable APA map in case you missed it (updated with postal ballots now):

https://static.kurier.at/elections/nr17/index.map.html

Go on Hochburgen to see support for each party.

[Famous Mortimer]

I see the Communist Party of Austria ran with some expelled Greens called the Young Greens. Was that the whole youth wing of The Greens that got expelled or just some? and why were they expelled?