Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Kevinstat]

With the Greens currently out of parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS would have a 2/3 majority in parliament, a constitution-changing supermajority. By 1 seat.

In parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS recently voted YES on a proposal to introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake (but in the outgoing parliament they had no supermajority).

So it will depend on the Greens if their 1-seat supermajority holds ...

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS keep their parliamentary 2/3 majority with 123/183 seats.

Would a deficit and debt brake be considered "Gesamtänderung" (and require a referendum, like Austria's accession to the EU in 1995)?  Or would it just require a 2/3 vote in parliament and is thus basically a done deal now?

[Tender Branson]

With the Greens currently out of parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS would have a 2/3 majority in parliament, a constitution-changing supermajority. By 1 seat.

In parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS recently voted YES on a proposal to introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake (but in the outgoing parliament they had no supermajority).

So it will depend on the Greens if their 1-seat supermajority holds ...

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS keep their parliamentary 2/3 majority with 123/183 seats.

Would a deficit and debt brake be considered "Gesamtänderung" (and require a referendum, like Austria's accession to the EU in 1995)?  Or would it just require a 2/3 vote in parliament and is thus basically a done deal now?

From what I understand, there would be no referendum.

But it would need 2/3 approval in the Nationalrat and in the 2nd chamber - the Bundesrat, which is made up based on party strength in recent state elections. They don't have a 2/3 majority there and the SPÖ will very likely block it now. But there are 4 major state elections early next year which could change the composition of the Bundesrat.

[palandio]

[...]
2.) Are Peter Pilz' political views (and that's his real name - wow) comparable with Boris Palmer's or Oswald Metzger's?

[...]
2. Don't know about Palmer and Metzger's views really.

Metzger was/is fiscally/economically conservative.
Palmer yesterday was a guest in the German talkshow hart aber fair, where he stated that Pilz was much more left-wing on welfare and economic issues than he (Palmer) himself.

Altogether I would say that Pilz is further to the left than Metzger and Palmer on most issues, particularly welfare/economy. But at the same time he managed to appeal to some "realo Green" voters better than the Greens because they could culturally identify better with him than with the original Greens.

Exactly. Palmer is regularly attacked by the Antifa. that terrorist organization even managed to have his FB shut down for a short time because he used the word Mohrenkopf.
In May, he took a pic of a group of refugees waiting at a train station, who didn't buy a ticket. Later they were caught dodging the fare. Palmer uploaded the pic on FB, commenting with the words if it is racists to "describe that traveling by train has changed in the last years" and if it is "xenophobic to feel uneasy by doing so".

Link to focus.de

He also wrote a book called We cannot help everybody, which was heavily criticized by his Green party colleagues, and just recently he wrote a commentary on The European in which he stated that family reunification of refugees would lead to a decrease in quality of education and that that in return would lead to less acceptance of the welcoming culture among middle-class intellectuals.

http://www.theeuropean.de/boris-palmer/12954-qualitaetsproblem-in-grundschulen-durch-fluechtlinge

Yes, I know about Palmer's political views on unrestricted immigration. I thought your question was aimed at a more comprehensive picture. Regarding immigration, Pilz wrote an internal discussion paper (Austria first) in 2016 which was leaked to the press by some Greens a few weeks before the recent election and then promoted as representing the official Pilz List position by Pilz and his list themselves. The paper is quite to the right of the Green consensus. I think that on immigration Pilz and Palmer are not too far apart, what separates them is that economically Pilz is much further to the left.

[Tender Branson]

Today, President VdB has officially instructed the winner of the election - Sebastian Kurz - to form a new government.

VdB and Kurz also talked for ca. 1 hour.

Next important dates:

Oct 31: the FEC will certify the election results, parties can challenge the results until then (very unlikely this time)

Nov 9: the new parliament will convene and members are sworn in

[Tender Branson]

Today, President VdB has officially instructed the winner of the election - Sebastian Kurz - to form a new government.



VdB and Kurz also talked for ca. 1 hour.

Kurz is already going to work ...

In the afternoon, he talked with NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz - mostly about securing their support for constitutional issues such as introducing the debt/deficit brake. Strolz also wanted a big cut in public party funding for next year.



Tomorrow, Kurz will talk with Peter Pilz at 11am, H.C. Strache at 1pm and with Kern (as the last one) at 7pm. But Kern has already said that he thinks ÖVP-FPÖ is like 99.9% sure ...

Kurz has said he will already decide early next week who his coalition choice will be and will start intensive coalition talks with this party next week as well.

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/nationalratswahl/5306365/Kurz-traf-Strolz_Erstes-Ausloten-bei-Themen-die

[Tender Branson]

I personally think we'll get ÖVP/FPÖ within one month, plus some backup support from NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

Life gives:



Life takes:

[Tender Branson]

So, Strolz (NEOS) said today that the constitutional debt/deficit brake could come in the first half of 2018 - together with the budget for 2018, which is due in April (because of the election).

In early 2018, there will also be 4 state elections which are shaking up the composition of the Bundesrat.

My guess for the new composition is: 22 ÖVP, 19 SPÖ, 18 FPÖ, 2 Greens. ÖVP+FPÖ would be one seat short of a constitutional majority.

Unlike in the Nationalrat, in which they have a 2/3-majority by one vote: 123/183 seats.

The constitutional debt/deficit brake could be a first major test for ÖVP/FPÖ in the new year. This thing is usually quite popular with voters, because people think the government is only piling up debts anyway. So, even if ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS lose this battle - they can still point to the SPÖ as being the ones who pile up the debt and who cannot save.

BTW: Upper Austria, which already has a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, already passed such a debt brake.

[Tender Branson]

Today, tanks patrolled through Vienna:

[Boomer sooner]

Today, tanks patrolled through Vienna:

Is it a Military parade? Exercises?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today, tanks patrolled through Vienna:

Is it a Military parade? Exercises?

It's happening!!!!

[Kevinstat]

With the Greens currently out of parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS would have a 2/3 majority in parliament, a constitution-changing supermajority. By 1 seat.

In parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS recently voted YES on a proposal to introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake (but in the outgoing parliament they had no supermajority).

So it will depend on the Greens if their 1-seat supermajority holds ...

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS keep their parliamentary 2/3 majority with 123/183 seats.

Would a deficit and debt brake be considered "Gesamtänderung" (and require a referendum, like Austria's accession to the EU in 1995)?  Or would it just require a 2/3 vote in parliament and is thus basically a done deal now?

From what I understand, there would be no referendum.

But it would need 2/3 approval in the Nationalrat and in the 2nd chamber - the Bundesrat, which is made up based on party strength in recent state elections. They don't have a 2/3 majority there and the SPÖ will very likely block it now. But there are 4 major state elections early next year which could change the composition of the Bundesrat.

Oh I see, thanks.  I had looked up the Austrian Constitution and the amendment process on Wikipedia, but I had forgotten about the Bundesrat when it mentioned that most constitutional amendments just have to get a 2/3 majority in Parliament.

[Tender Branson]

Today, tanks patrolled through Vienna:

Is it a Military parade? Exercises?

It's the Latvian Army invading, see the flag in the center of the tank ...

Seriously: the tanks rolled through Vienna because of our National Holiday next Thursday, in which the army will have a big equipment show for the public.

[Tender Branson]

A comparison of the 1930 and 2017 federal elections (and ... not a lot has changed):



2017 by winning party:



1930 by winning party:



1930 Christian-Socials:



1930 Socialists:



1930 Right-wingers:

[Tender Branson]

Kurz continues his early coalition talks today.

He talked already with Peter Pilz at 11am for an hour, but it's pretty clear that Pilz and his list won't be a coalition partner for Kurz.

Pilz talked to journalists after the meeting and called his relationship with Kurz "good", but also said that he expects an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition soon and that his list will be the "movement of control in the opposition".

Kurz is talking with Strache (FPÖ) right now and with Kern at 7pm. Kurz didn't answer to journalists when asked if the FPÖ is his preferred coalition partner before the meeting.



Meanwhile, a new "profil" magazine poll shows that 35% of Austrians favour a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, with other coalitions far behind:



http://derstandard.at/2000066432866/Laut-Umfrage-sind-35-Prozent-fuer-schwarz-blaue-Koalition

[Tender Branson]

The "Standard" has a cool visualisation about how Austria voted, shown in continent/island vs. water/ocean style:

ÖVP-FPÖ:



ÖVP-FPÖ 2013:



SPÖ-FPÖ:



ÖVP-SPÖ:



The Left is made up of only a few islands:



https://derstandard.at/2000065832774/Schwarz-Blau-ist-ein-Land-ohne-Staedte

[Tender Branson]

The Kurz/Strache meeting ended and the Standard writes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Translation:

Kurz said that his meeting with Strache "was extremely positive and he got the impression that the FPÖ has changed for the better and wants to work for the country".

Kurz also said "that the FPÖ represents a party that has been significantly strenghtened in the election and that they talked about how to shape the future of the country".

Strache said he's "extremely confident" that Kurz will invite him and the FPÖ to intensive coalition talks starting next week.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) says that ÖVP-FPÖ is the most realistic coalition right now - because the SPÖ "doesn't know what it wants":

http://derstandard.at/2000066457846/FPOe-Vizechef-Hofer-sieht-derzeit-nur-OeVP-als-realistische-Koalitionsoption

The article also mentions more direct democracy as part of the next coalition: The ÖVP campaign platform says that if a petition drive is signed by at least 10% of eligible voters, it would lead to a referendum, while the FPÖ campaign platform says 4% of eligible voters. Excluding of course topics that are against human rights, so there will be no referendum on the death penalty for example (which of course even the FPÖ strongly opposes).

[Tender Branson]

The Kurz/Strache meeting ended and the Standard writes:

Kurz's girlfriend (left) and Strache's wife (right) are already BFF too:

[Tender Branson]

Here's a chart of how long previous government formations took (in days):

[mileslunn]

Here's a chart of how long previous government formations took (in days):

I am guessing this will be one of the shorter ones, an OVP-FPO coalition seems pretty straightforward so would be surprised if it takes over 50 days.

[Tender Branson]

The Kurz/Kern meeting just ended a few minutes ago.

After their meeting, Kern gave a short press statement in which he said that "starting tomorrow, the SPÖ will begin the process of preparing for the opposition role."

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/wahl/kurz-und-kern-trafen-sich-zu-letztem-sondierungsgespraech/293.647.187

It is expected that Kurz will announce in the next days already that he'll start intense coalition talks with the FPÖ and will also inform President Van der Bellen about his choice.

And yeah, I guess the new government should be in place rather quickly, I'd say a month from today.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz to meet with President VdB in the afternoon to tell him that he's gonna form a coalition with the FPÖ.

Kurz will announce it to the public tomorrow and the intensive talks will start on Wednesday or Friday.

http://derstandard.at/2000066499065/Regierungsbildung-Kurz-informiert-Van-der-Bellen-ueber-weiteres-Vorgehen

[Tender Branson]

Kurz to meet with President VdB in the afternoon to tell him that he's gonna form a coalition with the FPÖ.

Kurz will announce it to the public tomorrow and the intensive talks will start on Wednesday or Friday.

http://derstandard.at/2000066499065/Regierungsbildung-Kurz-informiert-Van-der-Bellen-ueber-weiteres-Vorgehen

The big unknown now is ... Van der Bellen.

The Standard writes that VdB has "big concerns" about handing over the Interior and Foreign Minister posts to the FPÖ (which means he could refuse to swear in an Interior Minister Strache or a Foreign Minister Hofer).

We'll see what he does ... maybe he's just barking, but not biting.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern will become the SPÖ's opposition leader in parliament, after a meeting of the SPÖ today in which he received almost full support. He'll also remain party leader.

http://derstandard.at/2000066507961/SPOe-Spitzen-bekennen-sich-vor-Sitzung-zu-Kern