Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[DavidB.]

What is Hofer's future within the FPÖ?

[DavidB.]

Any news regarding the "majority bonus" for the biggest party? If there's a snap general election this year, is it more possible to beheld with or without these bonus?

I'm sure that the SPÖVP coalition will break in the next week(s) and we get that election. SPÖ can only win: By now, Kern is popular, Strache not Hofer will be FPÖ leader, ÖVP will not burn Kurz. This could be different in 2018. With Kern not being "new" anymore, Hofer as FPÖ leader and Kurz as ÖVP leader, it could be a blowout for SPÖ.

Nevertheless, if FPÖ can't convert the current situation into a 33%+ first place finish, then they don't deserve to govern. It's like playing Soccer with one goal up and the other team being one man down. If you can't win, you're uterly stupid.

The "Majority Bonus" is only part of Kern's "Plan A", which he outlined in his speech.

Like in Greece? Yikes!

[DavidB.]

makes greece's government stable....even if you don't like the parties who are winning.

It's not as if you guys have a problem with too many parties in the government. Greece has a two-party government and so does Austria. Here in the Netherlands, that reasoning would perhaps be justified (even if we currently happen to have a two-party government too), but I don't think it makes sense in Austria.

[DavidB.]

let's say, if i hear about a non-existing or really low entry barrier, i don't think about the netherlands....but about italy and israel and both countries are creating nightmares for me.

Israel nowadays has a 3.25% threshold, almost as high as Austria's. But yeah, in the past it was worse.

[DavidB.]

Now lunch and at 3pm the SPÖVP government will offer their resignation.

What?

[DavidB.]

* Salafists and radical Muslims will be banned to sell the Koran on the streets

Lol, sell them? They hand them out for free here in the city.

Anyway, if the SPÖ agree to this it's going to be hard to come up with objections to an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition...

[DavidB.]

It is likely that the facial veil ban in public that was agreed on will also apply to tourists (and there are thousands of Arab tourists every year alone here in Zell am See - with fully covered women), who will be fined. But it also means that teachers, lawyers, nurses, kindergarten workers, judges etc. for example won't be allowed to wear kippas or crosses. Crosses will also be removed out of classrooms and courtrooms, if the law is passed.

What the hell. And the ÖVP is responsible for this?

[DavidB.]

Don't know why you say "primarily for teachers" since this question seems to be solely about teachers wearing headscarves, not about pupils.

[DavidB.]

Don't know why you say "primarily for teachers" since this question seems to be solely about teachers wearing headscarves, not about pupils.

True, but I guess support for a student headscarf ban would be similar (or higher).

Why? There is a clear difference to me. Teachers should be neutral. Pupils don't have to. I definitely think teachers in public, non-religious schools shouldn't wear headscarves (or kippot, or crosses), but I think it's okay for pupils to wear them.

Totally not appropriate, and not even in grounds with mainstream theology.

Deciding for others what's part of their religion and what's not strikes me as really problematic.

[DavidB.]

Maybe for you, but not for Austrians. They generally oppose any form of headscarves, no matter in public, for teachers or for students.

That claim remains unsubstantiated as long as there is no poll on this.

[DavidB.]

With Kurz:

If this happens, will Kurz prefer a coalition with the FPÖ or a continuation of the grand coalition?

[DavidB.]

It's really hard to say what turnout will look like because of the fact that sometimes turnout will be even lower than the percentage of people that say they are sure to vote  (Dutch referendum 2016) and sometimes a lot of people in the likely category show up (general election 2017). I usually expect people in the "sure to vote" category to turn out and only, say, 20% of the likely category (which is the socially acceptable answer for those who doubt they will vote), but due to fluctuations you can't really say anything meaningful about it. All the Dutch pollsters expected turnout to be about as high as in 2012, and the pundits expected an all-time low.

That said, across Western Europe we now see turnout is often higher than before due to the refugee crisis, Trump, Brexit, unrest in the Middle East, domestic policy and policymakers being more controversial, etc. It's hard to say anything meaningful about turnout in the next Austrian GE, especially while we're this far out of the election, but I would intuitively expect turnout in Austria to be higher.

[DavidB.]

Damn, that's pretty extreme. Are the young Greens that ideologically different, or is this solely because of their call on the party leader to resign?

[DavidB.]

The guy still looks like a total creep to me.

Sounds like a bizarre overreaction for the Greens to kick out their youth wing. Isn't being ridiculously ideological rebels the raison d'être for all political youth organizations? I understand that extreme cases cannot be tolerated (such as the Sweden Democrats' youth organization's descent into Nazism) but for the most part political youth organizations can, are and should simply be ignored.

[DavidB.]

Wow, inappropriate!

[DavidB.]

If a party leader cares this much about a statement by their youth organization it is clear that their position is weak.

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, VdB says his comments about headscarves for all women can be compared with the situation of Jews in Denmark, who were deported to concentration camps. Because they were wearing the yellow badges with "Jew" on them, many non-Jewish Danes became solidaric with the Jews and started to wear the badges themselves.

According to VdB, all Austrian women should now wear headscarves in solidarity with Muslim women wearing them, because they are constantly harassed in public like the Jews back then.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/service/newsticker/5207346/KopftuchAeusserung-bringt-Van-der-Bellen-Kritik-ein

What an idiot.

[DavidB.]

Hol' up, Austria. If we have all elections this year, the coming three years will be incredibly boring.

[DavidB.]

How do the Austrian authorities know which Austrian citizens have Turkish (or any other second) citizenship?

[DavidB.]

How do the Austrian authorities know which Austrian citizens have Turkish (or any other second) citizenship?

they don't.

they know shouldn't be allowed to get one and who may have voted.

I'm sorry, what do you mean by this?

[DavidB.]

Very distasteful, but, apart from the Anne Frank comments, nothing I haven't encountered in certain Whatsapp groups (and yes, of course I tell people who do this to f**k off). That's not "neo-Nazi activity" or even real antisemitism, it's misplaced edginess. It shouldn't be laughed off, but it shouldn't be taken too seriously either. Good for Kurz to disavow this though.

[DavidB.]

Exciting!

[DavidB.]

President Van der Bellen says "goodbye" to Eva Glawischnig

Very independent.

University students are such lazy fu**ers !

Turnout in university elections is often similar here and I don't bother to go and vote either. That's not laziness, it's because university elections are utterly pointless and the people standing in them are pretentious job hunters.

[DavidB.]

Dude must be extremely narcissistic, even by politicians' standards.

[DavidB.]

The state of Upper Austria, which has a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, will introduce a constitutional debt brake starting with the 2018 budget.

It means that Upper Austria's future budgets cannot have more outlays than revenues - every budget has to be balanced. Exceptions are only made for natural disasters or a significant recession (like the one after 2007/08).

ÖVP+FPÖ have 70% of seats in state parliament and therefore enough to change the state constitution with a 2/3 vote.

http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2846076

Great idea.