Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[mvd10]

Well, the poster made me like the ÖVP more but young male libertarian-ish right-wingers aren't going to get you a majority in Austria I'm afraid .

How does the ÖVP compare to other Christian democratic parties in Europe?

[mvd10]

Where does Kurz stand in the ÖVP? Is he on the right of the party? And is he a social conservative?

[mvd10]

14 billion? That's more than the VVD promised here (even in raw euros) while you'd expect the VVD to be more pro-tax cut than a Christian democratic party, Dutch GDP is higher than Austrian GDP and we were projected to have a 11 billion surplus while Austria has a budget deficit. This would require massive spending cuts and the budget still wouldn't be balanced (unless you cut spending even more). Now, I would love it (isn't Austrian spending pretty high, even by European standards?) but it would require massive spending cuts which aren't going to be popular.

Kern should attack him over this, tax cuts are popular but once voters realise where the money is going to come from they quickly become less popular. I'm not sure whether this is a smart move by Kurz, but atleast he isn't shifting to the centre on economic issues like other Christian democratic leaders. Kurz would be the best world leader since forever if he is elected

[mvd10]

Is it safe to say the next coalition will be ÖVP-FPÖ (if they have a majority) even if SPÖ gets more votes than ÖVP?

[mvd10]

The Pilz list would kill off any chance of an ÖVP-Greens-NEOS coalition right? Anyway I love his name. Reminds me of prins Pils

[mvd10]

What's the budgetary situation in Austria? In 2016 the deficit was 1.6% of GDP, is it projected to go down by much the coming years? Is balancing the budget a priority for voters and/or political parties?

[mvd10]

New Profil magazine poll about Strache as Chancellor and the FPÖ in government:

"Do you support or oppose Strache as Chancellor in an FPÖ-led government ?"

28% support
62% oppose

"Do you support or oppose the FPÖ being in the next government as junior partner ?"

41% support
48% oppose

* FPÖ being first and someone else as FPÖ-Chancellor was not asked, because Strache has always said that if the FPÖ wins the election, he wants to become Chancellor himself.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kanzler-strache-8231461

Remind me again: Strache is on the more mainstream wing of the party, relative to Hofer, correct?

No, it's the other way around: Hofer is the moderate one, Strache used to be the radical one and the attack dog. But recently he tries to be more calm like Hofer.

But wasn't Hofer's moderate image mainly caused by him being a calm and nice person?

Sebastian Kurz pulled the next top-level recruit on board today:



Maria Großbauer (37), organizer of the famous Vienna Opera Ball, classical musician, author and event manager.

She'll run as 6th on the ÖVP list. Großbauer (who will not become an ÖVP-party member) is a solid recruit for Kurz, because she serves as a role model for young women and because of her classical music background in Vienna she'll also attract a lot of Vienna's culture-loving older, wealthy bourgeoisie voters.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nr-wahl-oevp-listenplatz-fuer-opernball-organisatorin-grossbauer/275.633.549

Who did they vote for before this? Old, wealthy and bourgeoise screams ÖVP to me. Or are they like our "salonsocialisten" in the Grachtengordel (wealthy PvdA/social democratic voters)?

[mvd10]

Pils, pils alleen nog maar pils! (ironically I don't actually drink, but I still do all the stupid things people do when they're drunk, and I sang about beer in an airport once so I suppose that counts).

So Pilz is trying to capture the mythical sweet spot of culturally conservative social democrats? The new fiscally conservative socially liberal™ (in the sense that they might exist but decide they don't care about the issues their party is out of touch with them and still vote for their current party at the end of the day)? But I guess there is more potential for what Pilz is trying because culturally conservative social democrats might actually exist outside the internet. Pilz is doing a lot better than Monasch (Dutch politician who tried something similar and got 0.2% or something like that) and I also was wrong about there being no space for a right-wing party inbetween the centre-right and the PVV in the Netherlands so we'll see. Could Pilz try to bring SPÖ and FPÖ together?

[mvd10]

Will Kern stay on if he loses? He's pretty popular and it's clear that the SPÖ is losing despite him and not because of him. And he hasn't been Chancellor for very long. I imagine that someone who has been in power for 4 or 5 years doesn't want to become opposition leader anymore, but Kern might want another shot because his term lasted a year. But he still could win with a little help from the ÖVP (and maybe the Turkish government hehe). The VVD was at 16% in the polls a week before the election and they ended up at 22%. A similar jump for the SPÖ could make them the biggest party, but they still might end up in opposition in that case.

[mvd10]

Do you think there could be any "dementia taxes" in Kurz' platform? Isn't the 14 billion tax cut practically the only thing he released? I guess that has to mean unpopular spending cuts which could be controversial. But in the Netherlands the VVD's platform also included a massive tax cut and welfare cuts (they wanted to freeze all benefits except for the pensions) and nobody cared. Their proposal to invest more money in elderly care (paid for by other healthcare cuts) got more attention and nobody really cared about the spending cuts. Left-wing leaders tried to bring it up a couple of times but it didn't really work. Then again, the VVD's base basically is wealthy people while I suppose a Christian Democratic party has a much broader base which probably wouldn't appreciate a "Thatcherite" platform as much as the VVD base. Are there any polls on how people vote by education and income in Austria? I'd be interested in that.

[mvd10]

Sebastian Kurz = Night King = Euron Greyjoy = Daario Naharis = Night King = Bran Stark = Night King = Night's King = Some Stark 8000 years ago = Bran Stark = Daario Naharis



(I don't think mods would appreciate the actual mind=blown Oberyn image hehe)

[mvd10]

The posters do somewhat remind me of VVD campaign posters. But the VVD posters basically were policy proposals without any picture added, they did it to stand out because all other posters prominently featured the leaders of other parties (and a lot of people still weren't sure whether Rutte was PM material, it's pretty hilarious how the most successful VVD leader of all time was on track to become the least successful after 4 years as leader before things dramatically changed in 2010). But the messages in Kurz' posters are rather empty (the messages on the VVD posters were simplistic, but atleast they were concrete proposals). And you'd think all of the ÖVP campaign posters would prominently feature Kurz because their entire campaign seems to be based on Kurz.

[mvd10]

ÖVP. The world needs flawless beautiful Sebastian Kurz. I currently support an European superstate because KURZ would win every single election in a landslide and be our President until 2054. Seriously, Kurz would be as old as Trump currently is in 2057. He could still run for elections in the 2050s.

[mvd10]

Damn, your prediction that the ÖVP will outperform the CDU/CSU probably will come true. Congrats

[mvd10]

Boom!

But playing the Marx/Communism card usually is a sign that said liberals/conservatives are in trouble.

[mvd10]

VdB says he wants to block a blue Foreign Minister.

The FPÖ has said that Norbert Hofer would become their candidate for this post if they are in the next government.

That's especially interesting because the FM is usually the most popular cabinet member and Hofer said he wants to challenge VdB again in 2022 ...

https://m.kurier.at/politik/inland/bundespraesident-wuenscht-keinen-blauen-aussenminister/291.043.551

Will VdB even run for reelection in 2022? He will be 78 in 2022.

[mvd10]

There's actually another final SHOCK poll out today, which I'll post later.

Meinungsraum.at poll for GMX:

FPÖ pulls ahead !

Turnout projected at 80% (+5).



https://www.gmx.at/magazine/politik/wahlen/nationalratswahl/exklusive-umfrage-nationalratswahl-christian-kern-kompetentesten-sebastian-kurz-liebster-direktkandidat-32574458

I have a few problems with this poll: meinungsraum.at is an online panel only pollster and their support for small parties is between 5 and 9%, which is extremely unlikely.

Is it an established pollster? I remember those random Belgian polls which predicted a Mélenchon landslide in the first round of the French elections lol.

[mvd10]

How would you vote in the Winter Olympics referendum? What are the stances of the political parties? If Dutch politics is any indication I suppose the centre-right supports it while the left and the far-right oppose?

[mvd10]

Where will we be able to see the results by income/education/age?

[mvd10]

The low Green result is also a message from Austrian voters, who want checks-and-balances after their vote for the Green Van der Bellen last year.

Is this a parody on this goldmine?

[mvd10]

So what is Kern going to do? 27% is a lot better than expected.

[mvd10]

Does NEOS position itself as a right-wing liberal party (like the VVD and to a lesser extent the FDP) or are they more like those European social liberal/left-liberal parties? I always assumed they were more like the latter but you've called them right-wing a couple of times (and you obviously know a lot more about Austrian politics since you're Austrian ).