Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[TheSaint250]

Hol' up, Austria. If we have all elections this year, the coming three years will be incredibly boring.

We'd still have Italy.

[TheSaint250]

Meanwhile, Ö24 reports some "insider information" they received:

Kurz will take over the ÖVP on Sunday, when their federal committee will meet - and end the coalition with the SPÖ.

Snap elections in September or October are very likely now.

How would the FPÖ do? They seem to have declined in the polls but remain pretty high.

[TheSaint250]

Also, looking at the polls, Kurz would lead ÖVP to victory, correct?

[TheSaint250]

How would the FPÖ do? They seem to have declined in the polls but remain pretty high.

if kurz is the ÖVP candidate and recent polls are correct, the fpö would still do good (compard to historic levels) but fall about 5-8 points, while the ÖVP would surge massively, stealing voters from both FPÖ and SPÖ.

Ok. It seems like right-wing populist parties fall in the polls closer to elections, so I assume ÖVP would take more from FPÖ than shown right now.

[TheSaint250]

If Kurz wins, OVP-FPO likely ?

It could be. I read that Kurz is hardline on Turkey and refugee crisis, so he could probably attract and form a coalition with the FPÖ.

[TheSaint250]

The FPÖ has meanwhile consulted the other opposition parties today about a common meeting to discuss the date of the early elections.

September 24 would be nice (together with Germany), because you could argue that if Austria votes on Oct. 1 or Oct. 8, our election would be influenced by the outcome of the German one.

So, better hold it on the same day.

Or maybe before.  I would feel as though they would be largely independent from each other, but having them on the same day seems like too much, and if one should come before the other, the Austrian election most likely wouldn't majorly influence the German election.

[TheSaint250]

i am btw at a loss at this point, where the many voters of the SPÖ are coming from....

according to local polls, the SPÖ has become a minor party inf upper austria and salzburg, has lost big-scale in styria, wasn't big to start with in the west and lower austria and there are not a lot of citizens in carinthia and burgenland.

according to new polls, even vienna is trending hard to the fpö and still the spö seems - according to national polls - totally able to reach at least the second place and finish closer to 30 than 20 points.

if this is all kern's work, he is a real political talent.

A big city trending towards a right-wing party is such a foreign thought to me haha

but really though is kern attracting some spo voters or is he just consolidating so much of the fpo vote that he is taking a huge lead

[TheSaint250]

Kern, Kurz, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Van der Bellen and Schwarzenegger are all heavily attacking Trump for pulling out of the Paris climate agreement.

FPÖ? Why? In order to look sensible/responsible? Don't believe they truly support Paris.

Marine Le Pen said the decision to pull out is regrettable. Some right wing populists are in favor of stopping climate change

[TheSaint250]

Is Van Der Bellen doing any campaigning?

[TheSaint250]

The desperate FPÖ has found a new campaign gimmick: a 10% surplus-tax for refugees who found work.

http://derstandard.at/2000059504125/FPOe-fordert-zehnprozentige-Sondersteuer-fuer-Fluechtlinge

Not only do constitutional experts think this is unconstitutional, but it also reminds me of the Jewish wealth tax that was introduced by the Nazis.

Also, this is what Norbert Hofer said a few days ago in an interview:

"On the whole we do not like new taxes," Hofer said, adding that since the inheritance tax plan was aimed at funding public healthcare, that could be achieved through savings instead.

"There is great potential in terms of possibilities to make means available by better organizing the state," he added.

How do you think this will be received?

[TheSaint250]

Does it look like FPÖ will come in second, and if so, would that be the first time post-WWII that one of the two main parties came in third (or worse, if possible)

[TheSaint250]

Does it look like FPÖ will come in second, and if so, would that be the first time post-WWII that one of the two main parties came in third (or worse, if possible)

No, all current polls show the FPÖ has fallen back to 3rd place again with 25% - after being first with 35% for most of 2016.

And if anything, the FPÖ will likely keep losing during the campaign because SPÖ and ÖVP are hunting their voters. I guess 22-24% will be the end result for the FPÖ.

Ok thanks. Some of the polls have been confusing, with some showing FPÖ in second and others showing it in third

[TheSaint250]

The biggest anti-Semitic march (a total disgrace) took place in Vienna:

http://derstandard.at/2000059767075/Al-Quds-Tag-Israelfeindliche-Demo-zog-durch-Wien

It's the so-called "Al-Quds" march, in which mostly hundreds of Arabs (and a few Neo-Nazis) marched against Zionism and Israel, shouting "Zionism is Fascism".

Small 5-year old children in uniforms were also present, waving anti-Israel flags.

Anti-Fa counter protesters were also in the hundreds.

Do I...do I actually agree with Antifa on something?

[TheSaint250]

@Tender Branson I love your posts.  It's like reading Austrian news minus the German.

[TheSaint250]

The Team Stronach just announced that it won't run in the election. No name-change, no more financing from Frank.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Team-Stronach-gibt-endgueltig-auf/288952343

http://derstandard.at/2000059894099/Team-Stronach-kandidiert-nicht-mehr

One of their MPs could still run with a list on their own, but would need 2 others to enable a candidacy.

rip

[TheSaint250]

The Team Stronach just announced that it won't run in the election. No name-change, no more financing from Frank.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Team-Stronach-gibt-endgueltig-auf/288952343

http://derstandard.at/2000059894099/Team-Stronach-kandidiert-nicht-mehr

One of their MPs could still run with a list on their own, but would need 2 others to enable a candidacy.

rip

Nobody here will miss them.

lol

So, what's next for you ?

You need to change your signature ... NEOS, FPÖ, ÖVP ?

Not sure, gotta think about it.  I'm kinda open to all three (for as weird as that sounds). I might go with ÖVP, though, because Kurz seems to be all right.

[TheSaint250]

Is austria also like Germany in that you have to get 5% or more to be in parliament?

[TheSaint250]

Sebastian Kurz just had an A+ performance during the PULS 4 summer interview.

More tomorrow ... (pretty drunk right now because partying for my 30th birthday today just ended -> need bed).

Lol well happy birthday

[TheSaint250]

Is this evidence of Pilz taking FPÖ votes? Also could any coalitions be formed using that poll?

[TheSaint250]

Thank you!

[TheSaint250]

FPÖ will most likely underperform.  As you said, it's been happening everywhere with those right-wing populist parties.  They will probably come below the SPÖ.  I get this feeling that there might be another grand coalition.

Just a note: ever since Brexit all of my predictions have been horribly off.  FPÖ might end up get over 50% of the vote for all I know XD

[TheSaint250]

  Also isn't the fact that Kurz is fairly close to the FPO on its signature issue of migration a big reason for FPO voters going to OVP.  So in a way that's a FPO victory, not for the party itself, but for actually accomplishing something meaningful in that other parties might be starting to adopt some of its policies.

You're right on that

[TheSaint250]

What are some of his core issues that would classify him as a left-wing populist?

[TheSaint250]

Any response from Strache?

[TheSaint250]

Any response from Strache?

Hübner himself has sent out a statement, calling the accusations against him "a witchhunt by the usual suspects to fill the summer-hole". But he said the comments he made are true.

The accusations were brought up by the left-liberal "Standard" newspaper, which often releases accusations against the FPÖ. They have tapes of the far-right event.

No word from Strache yet. Will be interesting what happens. Strache ordered a strict semitic policy within the party (travelling to Israel etc.) in the last years and kicked out everyone who said anti-semitic stuff. On the other hand, Hübner was mentioned as a possible cabinet member in a future government, so ... this should be interesting.

Huh. Didn't know that about Strache. It's good that he did that.