Itawamba County, MS

[SingingAnalyst]

Itawamba, MS, birthplace of country singer Tammy "Stand By Your Man" Wynette (1942-1998), is perhaps where the Dems took the greatest tumble over any 12-year period. In 1956, Stevenson won 87% of the vote in this overwhelmingly white northeast MS county. Kennedy in 1960 got 63%, Johnson in 1964 got 34.5% (still his third best showing in the state) and in 1968, Humphrey got a mere 6.7%. In 1972, Nixon received 89.2%, the most for a Republican to date in the county.

After voting strongly for Carter in 1976, the county went narrowly for Reagan in 1980 and 63% for Reagan in 1984. Clinton narrowly lost the county in 1992 and 1996, and things went downhill again for the Dems afterward: Kerry got just 28%, Obama in 2008 got just 21%, and Hillary Clinton got just 11.5%; Trump got 87.2%.

Will Trump surpass Nixon's 89.2% in 2020? I say YES.

[DINGO Joe]

Hard to get real interested about what happens in Buttcrack, MS

[Calthrina950]

Hard to get real interested about what happens in Buttcrack, MS

"Those racist, "N*****"-hating, Bible-thumping, God-fearing, gay-bashing, do gooder, neo-Nazi, neo-Confederate, inbred, ignorant hillbilly bumpkins ain't worth our time!"

What this insuinates.

[DINGO Joe]

Hard to get real interested about what happens in Buttcrack, MS

"Those racist, "N*****"-hating, Bible-thumping, God-fearing, gay-bashing, do gooder, neo-Nazi, neo-Confederate, inbred, ignorant hillbilly bumpkins ain't worth our time!"

What this insuinates.

Except for do-gooder were on the same page.

[Politician]

Who cares

[mianfei]

Itawamba, MS, birthplace of country singer Tammy "Stand By Your Man" Wynette (1942-1998), is perhaps where the Dems took the greatest tumble over any 12-year period. In 1956, Stevenson won 87% of the vote in this overwhelmingly white northeast MS county. Kennedy in 1960 got 63%, Johnson in 1964 got 34.5% (still his third best showing in the state) and in 1968, Humphrey got a mere 6.7%. In 1972, Nixon received 89.2%, the most for a Republican to date in the county.

After voting strongly for Carter in 1976, the county went narrowly for Reagan in 1980 and 63% for Reagan in 1984. Clinton narrowly lost the county in 1992 and 1996, and things went downhill again for the Dems afterward: Kerry got just 28%, Obama in 2008 got just 21%, and Hillary Clinton got just 11.5%; Trump got 87.2%.

Will Trump surpass Nixon's 89.2% in 2020? I say YES.

It’s extremely obvious why the county trended away from northern Democrats after the Civil Rights Act: the poor whites knew they had lost privilege.

Vis-à-vis culturally similar coal country, the trend was much faster because upcountry Mississippi is less anti-war than coal country (Mississippi has vastly more military infrastructure than West Virginia) and because in coal country during the twentieth century powerful unions kept the region substantially loyal even to George McGovern. Consider that Nixon received only 34 percent in 1972 in Knott County in the heart of coal country (still the best by a Republican until 2004, although in three of the seven McGovern counties there Herbert Hoover in 1928 did better than Nixon in 1972) when receiving 90 percent in upcountry Mississippi.

Before 1965 – when they understood blacks would and must have zero say in the nation’s politics and receive zero aid from government – the upcountry would vote for economic populists who would help their constituents with infrastructure like the Tennessee Valley Authority.

[SingingAnalyst]

Hard to get real interested about what happens in Buttcrack, MS

"Those racist, "N*****"-hating, Bible-thumping, God-fearing, gay-bashing, do gooder, neo-Nazi, neo-Confederate, inbred, ignorant hillbilly bumpkins ain't worth our time!"

What this insuinates.

Except for do-gooder were on the same page.

Do-gooder or not, "hillbilly bumpkins" (or those who fit that description/stereotype) have helped elect or re-elect 13 of the last 15 Presidents (going back to 1928); Obama and the unelected Ford are the only exceptions. So yeah I think we should care at least a little.

If, as 12 of 16 Atlas voters so far believe, Trump breaks 89.2% here and still loses nationally, that would be unusual.

[Calthrina950]

Hard to get real interested about what happens in Buttcrack, MS

"Those racist, "N*****"-hating, Bible-thumping, God-fearing, gay-bashing, do gooder, neo-Nazi, neo-Confederate, inbred, ignorant hillbilly bumpkins ain't worth our time!"

What this insuinates.

Except for do-gooder were on the same page.

Do-gooder or not, "hillbilly bumpkins" (or those who fit that description/stereotype) have helped elect or re-elect 13 of the last 15 Presidents (going back to 1928); Obama and the unelected Ford are the only exceptions. So yeah I think we should care at least a little.

If, as 12 of 16 Atlas voters so far believe, Trump breaks 89.2% here and still loses nationally, that would be unusual.

Unusual, yes, but not unprecedented. Trump could very well do better in most rural areas throughout the country in 2020, win or lose, as the urban-rural divide continues to expand.

[Tintrlvr]

Almost certainly not.

1. Itawamba County is 6.47% black. This gives the Democrats a certain baseline performance that they will always get.
2. White voters even in the very most Republican Deep South counties are not 100% Republican. There are always a few Democratic teachers, trial lawyers, nurses, etc. enough to keep the white vote to 90-95% Republican at most. It's worth noting that Itawamba County white voters were more like 85% Republican in 2012, so there was still room for the Republicans to gain in 2016. That room is gone. Nowhere is the white vote more than the low 90s for the Republicans.
3. Trump doing 3 points better than 2016 in this county against the national trend is very unlikely. I certainly don't rule out swings to Trump in some places in 2020, but 3 points better is a significant swing, and areas with so little room to move (you're requiring basically the very last drops of non-Republican white voters switching to Trump) just don't swing like that against the national trend. This assumes of course that there isn't a swing to Trump nationally; if Trump does 3 points better nationally than he did in 2016, this argument is off. But I think we can all agree that's unlikely.

[Del Tachi]

I don't see MS swinging toward Trump in 2020, so I don't think so. 

This isn't even the most Republican county in Mississippi:  that would be George County, way down south (87.9% Trump, 85.0% Romney).