MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gravis polled five Hispanics and four of them were Republicans.

I'm aware this may not have been meant seriously, but the crosstabs indicate that 2% of Hispanics are undecided on Trump - disapproval is at 18% and approval is at 80%. To get those numbers they would have needed to survey 50 Hispanics or more.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Other than Obama in 2008, I can't find a statewide race since 2000 where it picked the wrong winner.  

Lake County is kind of a bizarre bellwether.  Most of it is on the Flathead Indian Reservation, and it's 22% Native American.  Its demographics are not reflective of the rest of Montana.

Whatever it's demographics are, it's still a decent bellwether as Miles said.

[Holmes]

Gravis polled five Hispanics and four of them were Republicans.

I'm aware this may not have been meant seriously, but the crosstabs indicate that 2% of Hispanics are undecided on Trump - disapproval is at 18% and approval is at 80%. To get those numbers they would have needed to survey 50 Hispanics or more.

Yeah. It's bull.

[cinyc]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Other than Obama in 2008, I can't find a statewide race since 2000 where it picked the wrong winner.  

Lake County is kind of a bizarre bellwether.  Most of it is on the Flathead Indian Reservation, and it's 22% Native American.  Its demographics are not reflective of the rest of Montana.

Whatever it's demographics are, it's still a decent bellwether as Miles said.

I'm not doubting it's a decent bellwether - but it isn't one because it reflects the demographic makeup of the state.

[MT Treasurer]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Also watch the margin in Lewis+Clark and especially Yellowstone. These counties tend to come in earlier than Lake, I believe.

I just checked the 2016 coverage of the gubernatorial race again, and Lake actually came in early as well. So yeah, with all of these important counties coming in early, we will probably know relatively soon where the race stands. But again - please keep in mind that the early returns (almost all early vote) always favor Democrats, so Quist might be ahead in Yellowstone and Lake at the beginning, kinda like Republicans always lead in Londoun County in VA in the early returns.

And yeah, Lake's record is pretty impressive.

[cinyc]

Gravis polled five Hispanics and four of them were Republicans.

I'm aware this may not have been meant seriously, but the crosstabs indicate that 2% of Hispanics are undecided on Trump - disapproval is at 18% and approval is at 80%. To get those numbers they would have needed to survey 50 Hispanics or more.

Wrong.  Gravis is likely weighting their crosstabs, as most pollsters do.  Any number of respondents could get you an 80-18 split.  Even 3 repondents, in theory.  

Suppose Gravis overpolled female seniors, and they were weighted very low because there are so many of them.  She was undecided.  Next, they polled a 50 year old, and he was pro-Quist and somewhat low weighted, since there were a lot of 50-year old males in the sample.  Then, they polled a 18 year old female, who picked Gianforte.  Because there were so few millenial females in the sample, the weight was high.  Put the three together, and you could theoretically get to 80-18-2.

They probably polled more than 3 Hispanics, but it doesn't need to be 50.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Also watch the margin in Lewis+Clark and especially Yellowstone. These counties tend to come in earlier than Lake, I believe.

I just checked the 2016 coverage of the gubernatorial race again, and Lake actually came in early as well. So yeah, with all of these important counties coming in early, we will probably know relatively soon where the race stands. But again - please keep in mind that the early returns (almost all early vote) always favor Democrats, so Quist might be ahead in Yellowstone and Lake at the beginning, kinda like Republicans always lead in Londoun County in VA in the early returns.

And yeah, Lake's record is pretty impressive.

Most of the voting in this election is early voting.

[MT Treasurer]

Most of the voting in this election is early voting.

I am aware of that. Just don't freak out if Quist is ahead by 3-5 with 25% of the vote in, lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Most of the voting in this election is early voting.

I am aware of that. Just don't freak out if Quist is ahead by 3-5 with 25% of the vote in, lol.

Fair point.

[heatcharger]

Will Montana be quick to count since most of the vote is by mail? I'm not trying to go to sleep at an unreasonable time, I have stuff to do the next day lol.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Bahahahaha. What a legitimately pathetic pollster. I have no doubt they pulled the numbers out of their ass at the last minute.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bahahahaha. What a legitimately pathetic pollster. I have no doubt they pulled the numbers out of their ass at the last minute.

True dat.

[mattocaster6]

The Gravis poll claims that Steve Bullock has a +6 approval rating and Jon Tester has a -5% approval rating. According to MorningConsult (A more reliable pollster) Steve Bullock's approval rating is +31% and Jon Tester's approval rating is +25%.

In other words, this Gravis poll is trash and is massively over-polling people who don't like democrats.

[Chief Justice Keef]

On a bigger note, why didn't any respectable pollsters get a read on this race? All we got was Gravis and a bunch of Google surveys.

[KingSweden]

On a bigger note, why didn't any respectable pollsters get a read on this race? All we got was Gravis and a bunch of Google surveys.

Montana state law makes it prohibitive to poll. I believe they require live callers

[cinyc]

On a bigger note, why didn't any respectable pollsters get a read on this race? All we got was Gravis and a bunch of Google surveys.

We also got an Emerson College poll showing Gianforte up 15 in mid-April.  Not that that improves things much.

As KingSweden said, Montana requires live dialers, which increases polling costs.

[krazen1211]

Bullock approval: 40-34 (+6)
Tester approval: 36-40 (-4)
Trump approval: 50-42 (+8)

Gianforte - 49%
Quist - 35%
Wicks - 8%
Undecided - 9%

Democrat - 26%
Republican - 37%
Independent/Other - 37%

Dominating!

[MT Treasurer]

Will Montana be quick to count since most of the vote is by mail? I'm not trying to go to sleep at an unreasonable time, I have stuff to do the next day lol.

The last time I believe it took 20 minutes or so until the first big vote dump came in. After that, it really depends. It's nowhere near as quick as Florida, but if either candidate wins by 4 or more, we should know the outcome of the race relatively soon. If it's decided by 2 points or less than that, it'll be a long night for sure, lol.

According to MorningConsult (A more reliable pollster) Steve Bullock's approval rating is +31% and Jon Tester's approval rating is +25%.

Yeah, no. Just because this poll is nonsense and Gravis is a bad pollster doesn't mean that we should pay attention to Morning Consult, lol. These numbers are obviously inflated.

[Beet]

I stick to the same 10 point Gianforte win prediction I've had since the beginning. The only difference is I now adjust it to 53-43 to account for Wicks.

[Maxwell]

Also House polls are generally pretty bad.

[Chief Justice Keef]

LMAOOOO

[The Other Castro]

Wtffffffffffffffffff

[mattocaster6]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/866878503911915520

When weighed to be 2014 turnout (54.6%) instead of 90.04% turnout Gianforte's lead is slashed to 8 points in the Gravis poll.

[The Other Castro]

Seems to support the theory that they just made these numbers up.

[MT Treasurer]

Is there any link to this mysterious GOP internal that has Gianforte up 2?