MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Skill and Chance]

can someone sum up this race now that it's March 6?  

Well, yesterday the Democrats chose Rob Quist (somewhat famous songwriter, singer and guitarist) to be their nominee for the special election. Today the Republicans will chose their nominee at the convention, it looks like it will be Greg Gianforte (businessman and candidate for governor in 2016). The general election should be quite competitive, this is definitely a race to watch.

The special election will be held on May 25.

The Republican SuperPACs are definitely treating Quist like someone with a 30% chance, not someone with a 3% chance.  It surprises me that they would tip their hands this early.

[Pandaguineapig]

can someone sum up this race now that it's March 6?  

Well, yesterday the Democrats chose Rob Quist (somewhat famous songwriter, singer and guitarist) to be their nominee for the special election. Today the Republicans will chose their nominee at the convention, it looks like it will be Greg Gianforte (businessman and candidate for governor in 2016). The general election should be quite competitive, this is definitely a race to watch.

The special election will be held on May 25.

The Republican SuperPACs are definitely treating Quist like someone with a 30% chance, not someone with a 3% chance.  It surprises me that they would tip their hands this early.

What I've heard is that both party's polling shows this race is much more competitive than ga-6. Quist also the folksy populist who could play well here, which explains why the gop has acted quickly to reveal his ties to the far-left in the democratic party

[MT Treasurer]

Always told you so. The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here, this is such a stupid strategy.

[The Other Castro]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Agreed on your points about GOP problems, but calling this any more than Tilt R feels very generous to Democrats.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

[Xing]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

That's not exactly a fair comparison. KS and UT were caucus states, while MT had a primary after AP declared Clinton had clinched the nomination.

TN Vol, any reason why you think Quist is favored? I don't doubt that he'll make it competitive, but it seems like Montana hasn't had a Democratic House representative in a long time.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

That's not exactly a fair comparison. KS and UT were caucus states, while MT had a primary after AP declared Clinton had clinched the nomination.

TN Vol, any reason why you think Quist is favored? I don't doubt that he'll make it competitive, but it seems like Montana hasn't had a Democratic House representative in a long time.

Not to mention that every single Sanders staffer not a victim of the April 27th downsizing was in California at the time.


@MT Treasurer/TNVol - thoughts on Quist's gun control policy? Is anyone going to pay enough attention to policy positions for it to matter?

[JMT]

Anyone know what time voting starts for GOP convention?

[MT Treasurer]

First round ballots are being counted right now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

MT in your opinion is the reason you think Quist could win is Gianforte comes off as a bit phony an just wanting this seat to pad his resume for another shot at Bullock? Cause he kinda rubs me that way an I want to see if that is a general prescription

[Heisenberg]

BTW, anywhere I can watch/stream this?

[Skill and Chance]

MT in your opinion is the reason you think Quist could win is Gianforte comes off as a bit phony an just wanting this seat to pad his resume for another shot at Bullock? Cause he kinda rubs me that way an I want to see if that is a general prescription

IMO, his problems are:

1. Technocratic software executive with CA and NJ connections running in a very rural, populist state.
2. Too socially conservative for the Mountain West.

Quist vs. Gianforte is basically a test case of what Democratic Trump vs. Republican Clinton would look like.

[BuckeyeNut]

Okay, saying that he is "favored" might be a bit too much (even though my gut feeling tells me he is), but it's a Tossup for sure. I might be a bit biased since I like many of Quist's stances (especially on education and foreign policy) much more than Gianforte's, but I'm afraid that he will abandon them once he is in Congress. He's generally a good, likeable person and I'd gladly trade Tester for Quist any day. If Quist were a bit more socially conservative or even pro-life, he'd be the ideal Democrat for me who I would vote for in a heartbeat.

If you're the platonic ideal of the opposition party, so much so that a loyal opposition party member would vote for you eagerly, you're not a good candidate for your party. (Which is to say I'm glad Quist wouldn't make you jump for joy.)

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And the MT GOP is nominating the worst of the bunch?

[The Other Castro]

Gianforte wins on the 1st ballot.

[Lachi]

What is your take on the race now?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

@TNVOL: Saying Tester isn't a moderate is just stupid.

[Figueira]

@TNVOL: Saying Tester isn't a moderate is just stupid.

When did he say that in this thread?

[publicunofficial]

Gianforte would be one of the richest people in Congress if elected, I believe (Still nowhere close to Issa)

[MT Treasurer]

@TNVOL: Saying Tester isn't a moderate is just stupid.

Anyway...

Libertarians nominated cattle rancher and writer Mark Wicks today

So it's Gianforte (R) vs. Quist (D) vs. Wicks (L)

[cinyc]

FYI - I just decided to run a Google Surveys poll for this race.

I have no idea how to weight the results, though.  Weighting to the 2012 GE electorate wouldn't make much sense, since turnout will be lower.  Does anyone have any ideas?  Weight to 2014 mid-terms (if there were any in MT), perhaps?  Last I checked, the 2016 CPS voter survey results weren't available yet, so that's not an option.

[Heisenberg]

FYI - I just decided to run a Google Surveys poll for this race.

I have no idea how to weight the results, though.  Weighting to the 2012 GE electorate wouldn't make much sense, since turnout will be lower.  Does anyone have any ideas?  Weight to 2014 mid-terms (if there were any in MT), perhaps?  Last I checked, the 2016 CPS voter survey results weren't available yet, so that's not an option.

Weigh it to 2014 House/Senate turnout. That's the best.

[cinyc]

FYI - I just decided to run a Google Surveys poll for this race.

I have no idea how to weight the results, though.  Weighting to the 2012 GE electorate wouldn't make much sense, since turnout will be lower.  Does anyone have any ideas?  Weight to 2014 mid-terms (if there were any in MT), perhaps?  Last I checked, the 2016 CPS voter survey results weren't available yet, so that's not an option.

Weigh it to 2014 House/Senate turnout. That's the best.

The 2014 November CPS seems to have data for Montana.  I guess that's the way I'll go.  As usual, I'll report both the weighted and unweighted numbers.

Google accepted the survey, so we're in the field right now.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, thanks for doing this! Really looking forward to the results. I wouldn't underestimate Democratic turnout here, though. Generally, the difference between the composition of a midterm and presidential year electorate isn't that significant in Montana, but still...

[cinyc]

Wow, thanks for doing this! Really looking forward to the results. I wouldn't underestimate Democratic turnout here, though. Generally, the difference between the composition of a midterm and presidential year electorate isn't that significant in Montana, but still...

None of my weighting will be by party.  It will only be by sex and age.  As you may remember, my Google Survey polls are one-question affairs with no screening questions.  The question asked this time is:

"Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. If this special election were held today, for whom would you vote?"

The choices are (in random order, except the last option):
"-Democrat Rob Quist
-Republican Greg Gianforte
-Libertarian Mark Wicks
-I am not likely to vote in this election"

I'm going to have to recreate how I created the 2012 weights to do them for 2014 - that's a bit of a project for the next few days.  Hopefully, I'll figure it out before the poll ends.  I don't remember exactly what I did the last time.  But we're going to need the 2014 weights for the 2018 midterms, anyway.  Now is as good a time to start that as any.

[Heisenberg]

^Do they allow two questions? I'm interested in a hypothetical Tester vs. Fox Senate matchup, but that should probably wait until after May 25.