MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

O'Neill the most electable Republican? Come on, guys... he'd almost certainly lose, maybe even in a good year for Republicans.

[Figueira]

Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

[Pandaguineapig]

Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

Zinke has been actively recruiting him and his appearances on Fox news suggests that he is fairly conservative. Also Tammy Duckworth shows that an inspiring military background can help overcome a lack of political skills

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tim Fox or Greg Gianforte would certainly make this a Tossup as well. Tester is still quite vulnerable. And barring a disastrous Trump presidency, Democrats aren't going to win MT-AL.

Edit: Whoa, now that I think about it... Gianforte running for Senate in 2018 and Fox running for governor in 2020 would kinda make sense.

Gianforte who underperformed Donald Trump by 27 points this year... yeah okay.

That's not how this works. Bullock is a popular incumbent who wasn't going to be beaten by any Republican. Fox MIGHT have done one or two points better, but that's about it. Popular Democratic incumbent governors in Montana don't lose reelection. Gianforte was not a perfect candidate, but he didn't really run a BAD campaign either. Had this been an open seat, Gianforte probably would have won the election.

Also try to find a better Republican candidate.... other than maybe Tim Fox, there really isn't one.

Gianforte lost b/c he ran a piss-poor campaign.

[Figueira]

Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

Zinke has been actively recruiting him and his appearances on Fox news suggests that he is fairly conservative. Also Tammy Duckworth shows that an inspiring military background can help overcome a lack of political skills

I don't think Duckworth proved that. She underperformed in her election to the House, and she only beat Kirk in a landslide because he made a racist comment and it's Illinois.

[publicunofficial]

Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

Zinke has been actively recruiting him and his appearances on Fox news suggests that he is fairly conservative. Also Tammy Duckworth shows that an inspiring military background can help overcome a lack of political skills

I don't think Duckworth proved that. She underperformed in her election to the House, and she only beat Kirk in a landslide because he made a racist comment and it's Illinois.

What does Duckworth have to do to prove herself, at this point?

[Figueira]

Do we know anything about O'Neill's politics or political skills?

Zinke has been actively recruiting him and his appearances on Fox news suggests that he is fairly conservative. Also Tammy Duckworth shows that an inspiring military background can help overcome a lack of political skills

I don't think Duckworth proved that. She underperformed in her election to the House, and she only beat Kirk in a landslide because he made a racist comment and it's Illinois.

What does Duckworth have to do to prove herself, at this point?

I'm just saying that Duckworth didn't prove that having a cool military story automatically wins elections, which is what pandaguineapig implied.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I mean technically Zinke could still run. It's not unheard of for people to be in the cabinet for two years and then move on.

[Figueira]

I mean technically Zinke could still run. It's not unheard of for people to be in the cabinet for two years and then move on.

The fact that he's actively encouraging someone else to run makes me suspect he's not interested, though.

[MT Treasurer]

I love how Atlas thinks that every candidate who lost in a purple state must have run a terrible campaign. Again, Democratic incumbent governors in Montana don't lose reelection. Tim Fox wouldn't have beaten Bullock either.

[KingSweden]

I mean technically Zinke could still run. It's not unheard of for people to be in the cabinet for two years and then move on.

The fact that he's actively encouraging someone else to run makes me suspect he's not interested, though.

Yeah, that's my read too...

[houseonaboat]

Among the five most vulnerable Dems up for reelection in 2018 (Tester, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, Manchin), Tester is by far the most skilled politically. His populism works incredibly well in Montana and lets him differentiate himself from Republicans while still being conservative enough on issues like guns rights and environmental protection to survive a statewide election. He's a very talented politician and I think running any candidate besides Zinke makes it very hard for the GOP to win this seat.

[The Other Castro]

White Nationalist Richard Spencer thinking of running.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-congress_us_58540839e4b0b3ddfd8c2f4b?khc1yynjws7qr529

[Heisenberg]

White Nationalist Richard Spencer thinking of running.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-congress_us_58540839e4b0b3ddfd8c2f4b?khc1yynjws7qr529

No no please please no.

[Gass3268]

White Nationalist Richard Spencer thinking of running.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-congress_us_58540839e4b0b3ddfd8c2f4b?khc1yynjws7qr529

With Trump winning the Presidency I won't discount anything, but it would be nice for Montana 2018 to become the Colorado of 2016.

[Figueira]

White Nationalist Richard Spencer thinking of running.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-congress_us_58540839e4b0b3ddfd8c2f4b?khc1yynjws7qr529

Hopefully a non-Nazi Republican beats him, and then loses to a Democrat. We don't need to mainstream those views.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I heard a rumor the guy who shot Bin Laden might run.

I think Fox wants to be Governor

Zinke was trying to recruit that guy to run against Tester.  But he hasn't shown any interest (I doubt he's even a Republican).

[Heisenberg]

I heard a rumor the guy who shot Bin Laden might run.

I think Fox wants to be Governor

Zinke was trying to recruit that guy to run against Tester.  But he hasn't shown any interest (I doubt he's even a Republican).

O'Neill is a Republican, he shows up at Republican events, endorsed fellow SEAL Eric Greitens, and I also hear he appears on FOX News.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I heard a rumor the guy who shot Bin Laden might run.

I think Fox wants to be Governor

Zinke was trying to recruit that guy to run against Tester.  But he hasn't shown any interest (I doubt he's even a Republican).

O'Neill is a Republican, he shows up at Republican events, endorsed fellow SEAL Eric Greitens, and I also hear he appears on FOX News.

I read more about the guy and it sounds like it is disputed that he was the one who shot Bin Laden.  He has also been criticized as an attention seeker by many Navy SEALs for coming out and claiming he was the one who did it. 

[I’m not Stu]

Tim Fox or even Denny Rehberg would likely beat Spencer.

[mds32]

State Senator Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) has become the first contender to jump into the race for MT-AL.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ed-buttrey-becomes-first-candidate-to-announce-for-replacing-zinke/article_1b37cd40-565e-58fc-b340-1f553c7aff4e.html

[MT Treasurer]

State Senator Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) has become the first contender to jump into the race for MT-AL.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ed-buttrey-becomes-first-candidate-to-announce-for-replacing-zinke/article_1b37cd40-565e-58fc-b340-1f553c7aff4e.html

Nice. Certainly hope he gets the nomination.

[KingSweden]

State Senator Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) has become the first contender to jump into the race for MT-AL.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ed-buttrey-becomes-first-candidate-to-announce-for-replacing-zinke/article_1b37cd40-565e-58fc-b340-1f553c7aff4e.html

Nice. Certainly hope he gets the nomination.

Where does he fall along the MT GOP's spectrum?

[Young Conservative]

State Senator Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) has become the first contender to jump into the race for MT-AL.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ed-buttrey-becomes-first-candidate-to-announce-for-replacing-zinke/article_1b37cd40-565e-58fc-b340-1f553c7aff4e.html

Nice. Certainly hope he gets the nomination.

He's a moderate. He supported Medicaid expansion in Montana and sponsored it. With that record, it'll be tough to avoid a stiff primary challenge. If a true conservative jumps in, expect a lot of money to pour in.

Where does he fall along the MT GOP's spectrum?

[I’m not Stu]

State Senator Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) has become the first contender to jump into the race for MT-AL.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ed-buttrey-becomes-first-candidate-to-announce-for-replacing-zinke/article_1b37cd40-565e-58fc-b340-1f553c7aff4e.html

Nice. Certainly hope he gets the nomination.

He's a moderate. He supported Medicaid expansion in Montana and sponsored it. With that record, it'll be tough to avoid a stiff primary challenge. If a true conservative jumps in, expect a lot of money to pour in.

Where does he fall along the MT GOP's spectrum?

I would like him to get the nomination too.