MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, calling the race at this point would be...uh... a very bad idea.

Dude, Quist toast. Are you trying to give Democrats false hopes?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Greg Gianforte (Republican)    49.9%   119,188
Rob Quist (Democratic)    44.3%   105,796
Mark Wicks (Libertarian)    5.7%   13,655

GG +5.6% over RQ

What % in?

It's from DDHQ so...idk

[heatcharger]

Who was the last Republican to carry Big Horn County in a federal or gubernatorial race? Even Bush in '04 lost it by 4.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What is Schweitzer up to these days?

Recalibrating his gaydar.

[Beet]

Steve Bullock approval rating (Morning Consult) May-Sept. 2016

Approve 66%
Disapprove 19%

https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-rankings-september-2016/

If Larry Hogan has those numbers next year I'd expect him to do better than Bullock did last year.

[MT Treasurer]

Who was the last Republican to carry Big Horn County in a federal or gubernatorial race? Even Bush in '04 lost it by 4.

Racicot in 1996, I believe.

[Technocracy Timmy]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

Interior plains rural voters are quite different than the ones in the rust belt. The former have been reliably republican for decades.

[ApatheticAustrian]

going to bed now, mister MT treasurer has pulled my leg long enough ;-p

fun as usual!

[Angrie]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Maybe cause they knew it really wasn't winnable?

Bullock won the state against Gianforte as Clinton lost by 20 points. Jon Tester got elected twice here.

1) Those two are more moderate than Quist

2) The media markets aren't even comparable

3) Hillary did better in GA-6 than MT-AL by about eighty miles.

Not every seat deserves equal funding. Sorry. Georgia-6 was always, always more winnable than MT-AL.

Why do Democrats keep saying this about seats they lose by a whisker (MT, KS-4)?

Because Democrats really really like to get their hopes up and then get them quashed. It happens with basically every single election.

[Badger]

Why do Democrats keep saying this about seats they lose by a whisker (MT, KS-4)?

Huge margin shifts in such a short time can't be discounted.

There were rumblings on the ground for a month before the KS 4 vote. I was reading stories in the national media about the race being unexpectedly competitive weeks beforehand.  MT was predicted to be competitive for months. To the supposed professionals at the DNCC who had only a handful of races to watch, this wasn't exactly crystal ball or reading tea leaves territory.

[Maxwell]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters. 

uh I was agreeing with you that the DCCC is not to blame?

why can't anyone on this forum read?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So I guess the only chance for Quist to win is to close the gap in Billings+get remaining Missoula precincts+Silver Bow+favorable election day vote overall.  

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Greg Gianforte (Republican)    50.1%   121,036
Rob Quist (Democratic)    44.2%   106,791
Mark Wicks (Libertarian)    5.7%   13,876

GG + 5.9% over RQ

[Angrie]

Remember, Bullock was an incumbent who had 60+ approval ratings barely coasted by-- only won by 4 points. Otherwise he would have been toast.

So you are saying this is a pretty good performance, and the Democrats ought to nominate Berniecrats for everything. Message received!

[Technocracy Timmy]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters. 

uh I was agreeing with you that the DCCC is not to blame?

why can't anyone on this forum read?

Americans don't read.

[heatcharger]

Who was the last Republican to carry Big Horn County in a federal or gubernatorial race? Even Bush in '04 lost it by 4.

Racicot in 1996, I believe.

And that was a giant landslide. Makes this current result even more astounding. I'm sure the tribe leaders have real sway, but I don't know what Gianforte or Quist did to pull them that far away from their typical voting pattern.

[MT Treasurer]

So I guess the only chance for Quist to win is to close the gap in Billings+get remaining Missoula precincts+Silver Bow+favorable election day vote overall.  

Pretty much. It is unlikely to happen, but we'll have to see.

[The_Doctor]

So did the scandal have any impact? Or did Republicans just close ranks around Gianaforte?

[Beet]

Remember, Bullock was an incumbent who had 60+ approval ratings barely coasted by-- only won by 4 points. Otherwise he would have been toast.

So you are saying this is a pretty good performance, and the Democrats ought to nominate Berniecrats for everything. Message received!

The Berniecrat just lost to a criminal. Very successful brand of politics to be selling. Where's jfern?

[RI]

More from the west coming in. Quist is doing better there. Projected margin now at ~5 points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we at least expect Crazy Greg's lead to stabilize now? If it gets over 10 this will be beyond pathetic.

[Xing]

Apparently, all the precincts in Liberty county are reporting, and Wicks got 16.6% there! Any reason why he'd do so well there specifically?

[MT Treasurer]

Who was the last Republican to carry Big Horn County in a federal or gubernatorial race? Even Bush in '04 lost it by 4.

Racicot in 1996, I believe.

And that was a giant landslide. Makes this current result even more astounding. I'm sure the tribe leaders have real sway, but I don't know what Gianforte or Quist did to pull them that far away from their typical voting pattern.

Well to be fair, only 6/19 precincts have reported so far and there is a lot of vote still left to be counted. Quist should win it in the end.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Greg Gianforte (Republican)    49.9%   116,730
Rob Quist (Democratic)    44.3%   103,601
Mark Wicks (Libertarian)    5.8%   13,509

GG +5.6% down from 5.9% over RQ

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Remember, Bullock was an incumbent who had 60+ approval ratings barely coasted by-- only won by 4 points. Otherwise he would have been toast.

So you are saying this is a pretty good performance, and the Democrats ought to nominate Berniecrats for everything. Message received!

The Berniecrat just lost to a criminal. Very successful brand of politics to be selling. Where's jfern?

The flawed, first time candidate berniecrat is currently 5.2 pts down (according to NYT) against someone who was charged with assault after most ballots had already been cast. Calm your jets.