MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's becoming a vicious cycle at this point. National Democrats don't support progressive Democrat enough compared to Republican opponent, progressive Democrat loses in an underdog race against Republican opponent by single-digits, and moderate Democrats regardless toss it aside as a reason why populism can't work.

If anyone really thinks this race wasn't winnable and the DCCC was right all along, you're being naive. Sure, Quist was a flawed candidate. But that doesn't mean he couldn't have beaten Gianforte if he had received more support from the party, not just outside grassroots organizations.


If you care so much about data and which races are "winnable" or not, look at this graph and see that Democrats aren't supporting their candidates as much as Republicans.

Quist got more then enough funding.

Let me guess, if he had been a pathetic empty suit like Ossof, you would think he needs another $10 million?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

F**k, it's gonna be a 10+ margin isn't it?

I've thought since yesterday the bodyslam would double Gianforte's margin and that seems to be the case.

Yep, this was obvious to anyone who understands people. Of course The Guardian teamed up with him to steal the people's seat. Really sick tactics. Sadly, you never see Dems with the guts to do this.

[The_Doctor]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

My gut says no, thanks to polarization.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

I guess in hindsight "Very Strong Man Bodyslams News Reporter w/ Glasses" was a good look for Republican voters

[InheritTheWind]

If MT chooses to elect a criminal congressman, then they deserve him. It's a sad thing to witness.

This is why you lost.

Montana's newly elected congressman may have assaulted someone, but a Democratic poster said voters deserve who they vote for, and I found that mean, so Democrats are the real bad guys!!!!

SO MUCH FOR THE TOLERANT LEFT AM I RIGHT

[NOVA Green]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

Montana's political bench for both sides is notoriously thin and both candidates are immensely flawed. Recruitment isn't to blame for this race's failure on the side of Democrats.

Words of wisdom from Silent Cal----

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I don't know if this was mentioned here earlier, and I didn't learn about this until just now, but the Free Beacon botched the selective service scandal.

[Kamala]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

[Matty]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

I don't give a sh*t if it is "elitist" but that is deplorable

[Ronnie]

DDHQ calls it.


LMAO at the prediction thread.

I really should have stuck with my first prediction, in which I thought Gianforte would win by 9, lol.

Anyway, I can't speak for other Democrats, but I've personally never thought of these special elections as referendums on Trump.  It's just too early for that–particularly in Montana and Kansas, which Trump won by large margins–because Trump hasn't really done anything of note yet.  Dems should panic if GOP does well in the 2018 midterms, but not before then.

[136or142]

I don't know if this was mentioned here earlier, and I didn't learn about this until just now, but the Free Beacon botched the selective service scandal.

Like every Republican propaganda outfit, the Free Beacon has no interest in being factual.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Well, we could talk about DWS threatening a police chief instead. Would that cheer you up?

[Kamala]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Well, we could talk about DWS threatening a police chief instead. Would that cheer you up?

I don't follow.

[136or142]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

I don't give a sh*t if it is "elitist" but that is deplorable

Donald Trump is the real elitist, the rest is just lies from elitist Republicans that get their idiot supporters riled up.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

Stay classy Montana.

""""""""""""""""""""Christian nation""""""""""""""""""""

[Virginiá]

jfern, anti-jfern peeps, plz cut it out thanks

[rbt48]

Gianforte lead just dropped from 23K to 16K.  Maybe he won't top 50%.

[Matty]

It says a lot about how low the opinion of the democratic party is in rural areas of middle america when a reality tv star and a man who beats up reporters defeat democrats.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Agreed.

[MAINEiac4434]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

[Hoosier_Nick]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Agreed.

[rbt48]

He slammed ONE reporter.

Probably in the next race, the left should get a female reporter to harass the Republican candidate.  That would have swung many more votes than occurred here.

[136or142]

It says a lot about how low the opinion of the democratic party is in rural areas of middle america when a reality tv star and a man who beats up reporters defeat democrats.

I think it says a lot more about Republican voters and how few of them have any ethics, morality or intelligence.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Unity for what? More platitudes like "leading with our values"?

I'm getting sick and tired of moderates punching left and coming back with "now we need to unite, get behind us". Bullcrap. Quist was not a great candidate but he could've won, just like Thompson could've won in April. But Democrats don't have enough confidence in themselves to chin up and make the right calls.

If there was the same amount of energy nationwide for this race as there is in Georgia and Quist had still lost I might be saying different. But there wasn't, and leaders like Tom Perez certainly didn't do enough to drum up interest.