MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Maxwell]

Obviously we can't have a reasonable or semi-intelligible conversation about this race other than "lol left wing populism doesn't work" or "shut up DINOs" and other people empty quoting one another. Gross.

[Adam Griffin]

[Suburbia]

Take it easy, folks.

[Dr. Arch]

Obviously we can't have a reasonable or semi-intelligible conversation about this race other than "lol left wing populism doesn't work" or "shut up DINOs" and other people empty quoting one another. Gross.

Honestly, I'm not sure how we can have an intelligent conversation when one side is literally gloating that an assaulter won a congressional seat.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I guess I can't explain it any better after all.

I thought you explained it well.

[136or142]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Doesn't really fit here, but a fetus is not a human.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm thinking Buttrey or Sales would have won by much more, in hindsight. Think this is two subpar candidates and the state's form showing

Nah, Sales wouldn't have done better, but Buttrey might have won by 2 points more or so. Gianforte really wasn't an awful candidate before #Assaultgate, so I'm not sure why everyone keeps saying that.

[Beet]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

Yes because you are hardcore Republican who wouldn't take anything for granted in Wyoming, either. I should have stuck with my original 10 point prediction; Atlas got me gaslighted again.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Obviously we can't have a reasonable or semi-intelligible conversation about this race other than "lol left wing populism doesn't work" or "shut up DINOs" and other people empty quoting one another. Gross.

Honestly, I'm not sure how we can have an intelligent conversation when one side is literally gloating that an assaulter won a congressional seat.

Hey, he just body slammed someone. It's not like he grabbed a woman's crotch or mocked a disabled reporter.

[Adam Griffin]

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

>Proceeds to repeat religious claptrap
>Says we don't need religion dictating our candidates' behaviors

[Matty]

So G is up 6.5 right now with around 305,000 votes counted.

How many votes are left to be counted?

[Thomas Jackson]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

"And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed – if all records told the same tale – then the lie passed into history and became truth. "Who controls the past," ran the Party slogan, "controls the future: who controls the present controls the past." And yet the past, though of its nature alterable, never had been altered. Whatever was true now was true from everlasting to everlasting. It was quite simple. All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory. "Reality control," they called it: in Newspeak, "doublethink.""

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

And, we're not trying to elect our pastor

Funny how the "Christian" right touts that meme every time they nominate scumbags.

America sold its soul to the devil ages ago.

[Thomas Jackson]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Doesn't really fit here, but a fetus is not a human, moron.

After all... human women give birth to monkeys, sea urchins, dolphins and all sorts of things.

[Suburbia]

The Democratic Party has a problem with rural voters right now. Also, Cynthia McKinney used to scuffle in Washington, DC, and no one had a problem.

[Adam Griffin]

10k votes just dumped; 50.4-43.7.

BTW the MT SOS seems to be ahead of DDHQ now: http://mtelectionresults.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

[Beet]

Yes because you are hardcore Republican who wouldn't take anything for granted in Wyoming, either. I should have stuck with my original 10 point prediction; Atlas got me gaslighted again.

K, lol.

Care to name any MT Democrats you support?

[Chief Justice Keef]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

This is the easy answer. Instead of looking at vast swaths of the country disappearing from Democratic control over the course of a decade, and Republican governments in states like Wisconsin and Kansas utterly DECIMATING the livelihoods of their voters, it's far easier to say that either you've just lost one giant group of voters forever and/or that rural folk just decided to become anti-establishment for no apparent reason besides spite. It can't possibly be that Democrats lost their way with rural voters and fell out of touch when it wouldn't support the policies that would alleviate their economic stress.

If the answer for the Democratic Party's future lies in suburban "Panera bread" districts, then it has no future. As soon as Trump's out of office, most likely before or after 2020, these anti-Trump Republicans that are voting for guys like Ossoff are going to go back to voting Republican. That could happen as soon as 2022. Suburban voters don't support liberal policies. They don't even support centrist policies like Obamacare that tried to balance private health insurance with Medicare. Suburban voters have, throughout history, been some of the biggest breeders of fascism in multiple countries including our own.

[Antonio the Sixth]

7 points and growing.

[Nyvin]

Gianforte:  50.6%
Quist: 46.6%
Wicks: 3.8%

Just sayin...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well, as a liberal that sucked to watch. That was over embarrassingly early. RIP Quist, thank you for giving it your all. While I thought Quist would win, I knew Gianforte could for sure also win. But at least I was right that it was not by some ridiculous 14 point margin either way.

[Beet]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

This is the easy answer. Instead of looking at vast swaths of the country disappearing from Democratic control over the course of a decade, and Republican governments in states like Wisconsin and Kansas utterly DECIMATING the livelihoods of their voters, it's far easier to say that either you've just lost one giant group of voters forever and/or that rural folk just decided to become anti-establishment for no apparent reason besides spite. It can't possibly be that Democrats lost their way with rural voters and fell out of touch when it wouldn't support the policies that would alleviate their economic stress.

If the answer for the Democratic Party's future lies in suburban "Panera bread" districts, then it has no future. As soon as Trump's out of office, most likely before or after 2020, these anti-Trump Republicans that are voting for guys like Ossoff are going to go back to voting Republican. That could happen as soon as 2022. Suburban voters don't support liberal policies. They don't even support centrist policies like Obamacare that tried to balance private health insurance with Medicare. Suburban voters have, throughout history, been some of the biggest breeders of fascism in multiple countries including our own.

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

[Matty]

Any idea yet how quist is doing with election day voters?

[MT Treasurer]

The AP still hasn't called it, but NY Times has projected GF as the winner. I'm also calling it for the GOP.

Also, we should probably NEVER ever take Google Consumer Surveys seriously. Or Gravis polls, for that matter.