MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Heisenberg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs

Not my kind of guy!

Lol, chill. He will vote for gun restrictions, etc. once he is in Congress. This is part of the shtick, we saw this with Tester and Kander as well.

Quist is not a moderate, and neither is Gianforte.

Yeah, he'll likely just be another Pelosi puppet. Time for Gianforte and the NRA to fire back.

[publicunofficial]

Apparently Gianforte ALSO has an ad involving guns and the shooting of TV's.

[Figueira]

I'm feeling slightly better about Quist now than I was yesterday.

[Doimper]

Reading Gianforte's Wikipedia page:

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Is this real? Wow.

[Dr. Arch]

Reading Gianforte's Wikipedia page:

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Is this real? Wow.

...

[publicunofficial]

Gianforte asks the tough questions: Would Jesus have approved of overtime pay? I think the answer is an obvious no.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Reading Gianforte's Wikipedia page:

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Is this real? Wow.

Literally evil. Reading that sent a shiver down my spine.

[MAINEiac4434]

Reading Gianforte's Wikipedia page:

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Is this real? Wow.

Has to be someone trolling...right?

Please Christ let quist win

[Shadows]

In just over 6 weeks, Rob’s campaign raised $2 million from mainly small donations. Nearly 40,000 individuals have donated to the campaign with an average contribution of $32.

Tina Olechowski, spokesperson for Rob Quist’s campaign - “Montanans across party lines are supporting Rob, because they know he will stand up for everyday working people, not corporate special interests.” Unlike his opponent, New Jersey multi-millionaire Greg Gianforte, Rob does not accept donations from lobbyists or corporate PACs and supports a Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.

http://robquist.org/momentum-builds-behind-rob-quist-campaign-hits-2-million-campaign-contributions/

Money flowing into Quist campaign from small donors since the Our-Revolution endorsement!

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm sorry, but how is "Gianforte doesn't think you should be able to retire" not an attack ad yet?

[Shadows]

As national attention turns to the special election in Montana, the super PAC backed by House GOP leadership is deploying House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in a new TV attack on Democratic nominee Rob Quist. The ad, which will debut Friday on broadcast and cable, marks the start of an $800,000 media buy from Congressional Leadership Fund. The super PAC ran its first TV ad against Quist last month, using many of the same attacks. 

“Rob Quist talks folksy,” the narrator says, opening the spot. “But his record is more Nancy Pelosi than Montana,” the narrator says. “Whether it’s cuts to the military or doubling down on a health care system more expensive than Obamacare, Rob Quist continues to prove he is more in-tune with Nancy Pelosi than Montana,” CLF executive director Corry Bliss said in a statement.

- See more at: http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/rob-quist-gop-montana#sthash.keVfiS8c.dpuf

Holy crap, close to 1M in attack ads through Super pacs !

[Beet]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs

Not my kind of guy!

Lol, chill. He will vote for gun restrictions, etc. once he is in Congress. This is part of the shtick, we saw this with Tester and Kander as well.

Quist is not a moderate, and neither is Gianforte.

Tester? I can't find his NRA rating... some left-wing sources claims he has an A-? I know he voted for background checks, but didn't support some of Obama's proposals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs

Not my kind of guy!

Lol, chill. He will vote for gun restrictions, etc. once he is in Congress. This is part of the shtick, we saw this with Tester and Kander as well.

Quist is not a moderate, and neither is Gianforte.

Tester? I can't find his NRA rating... some left-wing sources claims he has an A-? I know he voted for background checks, but didn't support some of Obama's proposals.

Tester's web site says he has an A rating from the NRA.  http://www.jontester.com/issues/protecting-gun-rights/

[Shadows]

Gianforte has a new ad Grab attacking Quist for the automatic gun registry thing, distorting it with all rifles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlcwuaMeW8w

How are Democrats this dumb? Attack Gianforte as a Special Interest candidates who wants to eliminate Social Security, Medicare & sell off public lands. They are butchering Quist with negative ads !

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm sorry, but how is "Gianforte doesn't think you should be able to retire" not an attack ad yet?

Chill. He only just got D-Trip money. I'm sure something will come soon.

Though Montana is definitely more of a retail state, and less of a media state, as far as I can tell.

[Gass3268]

Quist is starting to get money that would make some Senatorial campaigns blush:

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[Chief Justice Keef]

Gianforte has a new ad Grab attacking Quist for the automatic gun registry thing, distorting it with all rifles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlcwuaMeW8w

How are Democrats this dumb? Attack Gianforte as a Special Interest candidates who wants to eliminate Social Security, Medicare & sell off public lands. They are butchering Quist with negative ads !

God, what a hack.

[MT Treasurer]

An interesting thing to watch in this race will be the East-West divide. Basically all GCS polls so far have shown the gap to be unbelievably high (sometimes even more than 40 points), with Quist leading in the Western part of the state and Gianforte in the East. I doubt it will be that dramatic on election day, but we'll see.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the early returns are skewed toward Democrats. So please... don't freak out when Quist leads 55-40 with 5% in. Oh wait, this is Atlas, why am I even saying this.

[Figueira]

An interesting thing to watch in this race will be the East-West divide. Basically all GCS polls so far have shown the gap to be unbelievably high (sometimes even more than 40 points), with Quist leading in the Western part of the state and Gianforte in the East. I doubt it will be that dramatic on election day, but we'll see.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the early returns are skewed toward Democrats. So please... don't freak out when Quist leads 55-40 with 5% in. Oh wait, this is Atlas, why am I even saying this.

Given that it's an entire state, with some very unpopulated counties, we should get some full county totals relatively early in the night, which should help us make an educated guess as to how the race is going (although again, we need to watch out for the East-West divide).

[GlobeSoc]

An interesting thing to watch in this race will be the East-West divide. Basically all GCS polls so far have shown the gap to be unbelievably high (sometimes even more than 40 points), with Quist leading in the Western part of the state and Gianforte in the East. I doubt it will be that dramatic on election day, but we'll see.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the early returns are skewed toward Democrats. So please... don't freak out when Quist leads 55-40 with 5% in. Oh wait, this is Atlas, why am I even saying this.

Given that it's an entire state, with some very unpopulated counties, we should get some full county totals relatively early in the night, which should help us make an educated guess as to how the race is going (although again, we need to watch out for the East-West divide).

Does thé east or the west report first?

[Webnicz]

Quist being from Kalispell , Does anyone think he can win in his conservative home of flathead county?

[cinyc]

An interesting thing to watch in this race will be the East-West divide. Basically all GCS polls so far have shown the gap to be unbelievably high (sometimes even more than 40 points), with Quist leading in the Western part of the state and Gianforte in the East. I doubt it will be that dramatic on election day, but we'll see.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the early returns are skewed toward Democrats. So please... don't freak out when Quist leads 55-40 with 5% in. Oh wait, this is Atlas, why am I even saying this.

Yeah, every single Google Survey poll I've had access to (including the one currently in the field) had a big East/West Gap.  The weighted and raw numbers:

3/12 to 3/14   Overall: Q+17 (Q+14 Raw); West: Q+33 (Q+29); East: G+9 (G+10) Gap: 42
3/14? to 3/16   Overall: Tie (Tie); West:Q+15 (Q+11); East: G+20   (Q+18) Gap: 35
3/18 to 3/20   Overall: Q+8 (Q+8); West: Q+14 (Q+13); East: G+6 (G+5) Gap: 20
4/6 to 4/8         Overall: G+1 (Q+2); West: Q+13 (Q+20); East: G+22 (G+26) Gap: 35
4/19 to 4/?       TBD

A 20-point gap is possible in Montana.  The 35/42 gaps are probably overselling the east-west divide.

[cinyc]

My Google Survey is now complete.  I put it into the field on April 19. It completed today, April 21. The question asked was:

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The choices were: (randomized) Democrat Rob Quist, Republican Greg Gianforte, Libertarian Mark Wicks and "I am not likely to vote in this election" (always last). As expected about 33% of the 533 respondents chose the "not likely to vote" option. Among the 356 respondents to answer with one of the candidates, the weighted results were as follows:

Gianforte 51%
Quist 41%
Wicks 8%

These results were weighted for sex and age to the percentage of those subgroups who reported voting in the 2014 November CPS survey. The raw results were Gianforte 49%, Quist 42%, Wicks 9%.  Google weighted to the Internet Audience, it is Gianforte 48%, Quist 42%, Wicks 10%.

As I've seen in the other recent Google Surveys of the race (more on this above), there is a huge divide between Eastern and Western Montana: Quist leads by 2 points (weighted)/9 points (unweighted) in Western Montana (n=188); Gianforte leads by 24 points (weighted)/23 points (unweighted) in Eastern Montana (n=160).

Eastern Montana is slightly overrepresented in the poll results. It makes up about 41% of the electorate in your typical election and 46% in the poll. I estimate that controlling for this would cause the poll to move about 2 points toward Quist.

There was no large gender gap in the raw results. Men were about 3 points less likely to choose Quist, but about 4 points more likely to choose Wicks. Suburbanites were much more likely to vote for Quist Q+6 (raw) than Rural residents G+30 (raw). Montana has very few urbanites, according to the poll. 87% of respondents earned $25,000-$49,999 per year, making discerning an income gap difficult.

[Babeuf]

Thanks for putting a poll in the field cinyc!

If we take the trend in the Google surveys seriously, then it seems like the attacks on Quist have made an impact. Unfortunate, but not surprising.

[cinyc]

Thanks for putting a poll in the field cinyc!

If we take the trend in the Google surveys seriously, then it seems like the attacks on Quist have made an impact. Unfortunate, but not surprising.

Or Google Surveys are trash.  Consider that Castro ran a Google Survey immediately after my Quist +17 likely outlier, and found the race tied.