MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

Quist is done

Pulling my Predict shares...

Too early to tell, but if things continue at this rate (I'm not talking about the nudity thing, btw), it'll be Gianforte's race to lose. Quist would do best if he localized the race as much as possible and focused on education, public lands, social security, etc.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

but I'd imagine that Western Montana is more conservative socially than fiscally (plus some parts, like Missoula, aren't even conservative at all), and Eastern Montana is more fiscally conservative than socially conservative. The west/east divide is pretty big.

I honestly can't tell if this part was meant to be serious or if you are just memeing.  Nice subtle trolling if so.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

With regard to Emerson, here is a poll from February saying Americans trust Trump more than they trust the media.  Take that as you will.

[Maxwell]

With regard to Emerson, here is a poll from February saying Americans trust Trump more than they trust the media.  Take that as you will.

but if you ask them SPECIFIC media sources, every poll has shown that Americans trust CNN more than Trump, even the failin' New York Times more than Trump. If you ask them about "the media", people think of their own ghoulish impressions of it (even from a left perspective) and pick Trump.

[Figueira]

With regard to Emerson, here is a poll from February saying Americans trust Trump more than they trust the media.  Take that as you will.

but if you ask them SPECIFIC media sources, every poll has shown that Americans trust CNN more than Trump, even the failin' New York Times more than Trump. If you ask them about "the media", people think of their own ghoulish impressions of it (even from a left perspective) and pick Trump.

They also didn't ask people to pick one or the other. I mean, I wouldn't say I really trust either, but if forced to choose, I'd obviously say the media is more truthful.

[publicunofficial]

Does the DCCC not understand how to respond to attack ads, or do they just not care?

[cinyc]

Does the DCCC not understand how to respond to attack ads, or do they just not care?

The DCCC (smartly, in my opinion - the less actual ties to Pelosi, the better for Quist) thus far gave  money to the state party to spend on the race.  I don't think they are directly involved in advertising.  It's up to Quist and the state party to respond to attack ads.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Does the DCCC not understand how to respond to attack ads, or do they just not care?

Both.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Does the DCCC not understand how to respond to attack ads, or do they just not care?

They also appear to not know how to do oppo research :/

Unless the presumption is that Bullock somehow got all of the dirt on Gianforte and used it in the governor's race.

[Maxwell]

Look - Democrats don't have to care about electing Rob Quist to the House. They should be energized to oppose god damn Greg Gianforte, of carpet bagging, sales tax instituting, creation museum creating, public land selling fame. He's a genuine HP who deserves to be beat and beat badly.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Look - Democrats don't have to care about electing Rob Quist to the House. They should be energized to oppose god damn Greg Gianforte, of carpet bagging, sales tax instituting, creation museum creating, public land selling fame. He's a genuine HP who deserves to be beat and beat badly.

All they need to do is cut an ad about how Gianforte doesn't think you should be able to retire. Quist would win by more than 10 points.

[publicunofficial]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

[Beet]

If the Democrats are afraid of nationalizing the race, then they've already lost by admitting what they're standing for nationally can never win in Montana.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

Seriously.

If you're so worried about it, give money to a Super PAC and cut ads oriented around local sensibilities and issues.

If the Democrats are afraid of nationalizing the race, then they've already lost by admitting what they're standing for nationally can never win in Montana. Then maybe they need to reevaluate what they stand for nationally.

I mean, the sad thing is that they're probably right. The Democratic "brand" is terrible right now if you're not a resident of the core of a major megalopolis.

[Figueira]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

Except they are giving him money?

[cinyc]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

Except they are giving him money?

Yes.  The DCCC gave an undisclosed six-figure amount to the Montana Democratic Party for the MT-AL race.  That the DCCC is not advertising directly probably makes tactical sense.  Let the state party do it.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

roughly 50k voters are being diverted from their customary polling places due to the unusual date and manner of the election

[cinyc]

roughly 50k voters are being diverted from their customary polling places due to the unusual date and manner of the election

Why did Governor Steve Bullock schedule this election for the Thursday before Memorial Day weekend, anyway?  He couldn't find a Tuesday that worked better?  Were his hands tied on the timing?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

Except they are giving him money?

Yes.  The DCCC gave an undisclosed six-figure amount to the Montana Democratic Party for the MT-AL race.  That the DCCC is not advertising directly probably makes tactical sense.  Let the state party do it.

That's only a small fraction of what the Montana Democratic party laundered for the Hillary Victory Fund. Sad!

[MT Treasurer]

Um, you people realize that Bullock ran tons of attack ads against Gianforte in 2016, right? It's not like they have much more stuff to use. This is a big reason why Gianforte is going negative that early and wants to define Quist as soon as possible.

Right now all I'm hearing is "GIANFORTE IS FROM NEW JERSEY!!1!", which is not a winning strategy. Sorry. Their last presidential candidate moved to New York to win a Senate race, but Gianforte moving to Montana 20 years ago is a big deal?

And yeah, I agree that it's the best for Quist not to be associated too much with the national Democratic party.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Um, you people realize that Bullock ran tons of attack ads against Gianforte in 2016, right? It's not like they have much more stuff to use. This is a big reason why Gianforte is going negative that early and wants to define Quist as soon as possible.

Right now all I'm hearing is "GIANFORTE IS FROM NEW JERSEY!!1!", which is not a winning strategy. Sorry. Their last presidential candidate moved to New York to win a Senate race, but Gianforte moving to Montana 20 years ago is a big deal?

And yeah, I agree that it's the best for Quist not to be associated too much with the national Democratic party.

I tend to agree although I think that some of the 2016 attacks can certainly be recycled effectively (not all of them, but some like Gianforte's awful quote about social security, his views on minimum wage increases, etc; it's not hard to paint him as a Romney-style out-of-touch plutocrat because that's pretty clearly what Gianforte is and he's not great at hiding it imo).  I am also a bit less bullish about this race than I had been a few weeks ago.  Quist can probably still win, but between the unanswered opposition research dumps and the KS-4 results (as has been noted by others, the rural parts of the district showed far less of an anti-Trump backlash than Wichita and the nearby areas), I can understand the rationale for being cautious about spending too much money here (especially given that Montana's a pretty cheap state) even if I don't necessarily agree with the decision.  At the very least, the DCCC was clearly right about GA-6 being an infinitely better opportunity. 

I'd like to see the DCCC put a bit more money here, but I also think we should wait for the actual results before whipping out the pitch-forks.  We also don't know what the DCCC's internal polling is showing. 

[Figueira]

The "Wichita had a much bigger anti-Trump backlash than the rest of the district" thing is basically a myth.

[Chief Justice Keef]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

WHICH IS SOMETHING REPUBLICANS DO ANYWAYS. They've already cut attack ads that portray Quist as a pawn of Pelosi.

It's because it doesn't fit their narrative. They want to win in GA-6 with Ossoff because it'll show that their "trade a blue collar vote for a white suburban vote" strategy was actually right all along, and having a populist win wouldn't contribute anything to that.

[heatcharger]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

WHICH IS SOMETHING REPUBLICANS DO ANYWAYS. They've already cut attack ads that portray Quist as a pawn of Pelosi.

It's because it doesn't fit their narrative. They want to win in GA-6 with Ossoff because it'll show that their "trade a blue collar vote for a white suburban vote" strategy was actually right all along, and having a populist win wouldn't contribute anything to that.

Do you even read this forum? cinyc's link shows that the DCCC dumped a six-figure sum into the MT Democratic Party.

[Chief Justice Keef]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

WHICH IS SOMETHING REPUBLICANS DO ANYWAYS. They've already cut attack ads that portray Quist as a pawn of Pelosi.

It's because it doesn't fit their narrative. They want to win in GA-6 with Ossoff because it'll show that their "trade a blue collar vote for a white suburban vote" strategy was actually right all along, and having a populist win wouldn't contribute anything to that.

Do you even read this forum? cinyc's link shows that the DCCC dumped a six-figure sum into the MT Democratic Party.

That's only a small fraction of what the Montana Democratic party laundered for the Hillary Victory Fund. Sad!