MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 230438 times)
Figueira
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« Reply #500 on: April 17, 2017, 10:12:34 AM »

If Quist wins or just comes closer than Ossoff, that will have profound implications for the Bernie strategy vs. the Clinton strategy, particularly if KS-04 ends up closer than GA-06.  In other words, if Ossoff actually is mired in the 30's, it should be taken as an early indication Clinton's massive overperformance in the Sunbelt suburbs was a one-time thing.  The KS and MT races being close would suggest it is possible to get enough rural voters back.

It should be noted that Thompson in KS-04 did terribly in the rural areas. He mostly made up territory for Dems in urban/suburban Wichita. Democrats do need a better rural strategy--with one we may have, in fact, won KS-04. The rural South and Plains, however, are going to continue to be deadzones. If we can consolidate control in the Pacific West and Northeast; make progress in traditionally conservative urban/suburban areas like GA-06, GA-07, TX-32, and TX-07; and hold our own in the rural West and rust belt, that, it seems to me, is the best route to a majority.

This either Hillary OR Bernie strategy stuff is nonsense. It has to be BOTH suburban D-growth areas like Orange County (CA) AND populist ancestrally Democratic areas like rural Minnesota/Wisconsin.

If Quist wins MT-AL, it will show that a populist Sanders-oriented strategy may work. While Thompson was certainly more of a Sanders Democrat, his performance relied more on a Hillary+ coalition than something Sanderseque.

Actually Thompson's swing from Trump in Sedgwick County was almost exactly the same as his swing from Trump in the district as a whole.
Sedgewick county has like 70% of the vote in the district, so it would be very surprising if its swing didn't closely match the overall district's swing.

My point is that he didn't do any worse (compared to Trump) in the rural counties than in Sedgwick.

If we look at Dem performance in KS-04, a good point of comparison is the 2014 gubernatorial race. Paul Davis lost Sedgwick. Meanwhile, Brownback did not receive 70% in any county in the district. Estes exceeded 70% of the vote in 10 of the 17 counties in the district. Davis reached 46% in Cowley and 42% in Sumner, compared to 42% and 35%, respectively, for Thompson.

If we go back to Sebelius' gubernatorial campaigns in 2006 and 2012, Thompson bested her 2002 Sedgwick performance and did marginally worse than she did in 2012. But Sebelius did really well in a number of rural counties, receiving well over 50% in Pratt and Cowley both years.

Clinton underperformed typical Democratic performance in rural counties. A more-or-less uniform swing for Thompson (and presumably other Dems in upcoming midterms/specials) on Clinton's performance indicates a continuation of the Clinton-Trump voting pattern.

This is disappointing because Dems would hope to see a swing in rural areas back to Dems that is STRONGER than the swing in urban/suburban areas where Hillary tended to hold closer to (or even do better than) typical Dem performance.

I hope that Dems can figure out how to win some of these ancestral Dem voters back... a left-wing coalition reliant on wealthy, well-educated suburbanites doesn't seem sustainable...

Now that's a fair point.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #501 on: April 17, 2017, 12:40:07 PM »

If Quist wins or just comes closer than Ossoff, that will have profound implications for the Bernie strategy vs. the Clinton strategy, particularly if KS-04 ends up closer than GA-06.  In other words, if Ossoff actually is mired in the 30's, it should be taken as an early indication Clinton's massive overperformance in the Sunbelt suburbs was a one-time thing.  The KS and MT races being close would suggest it is possible to get enough rural voters back.
It should be noted that Thompson in KS-04 did terribly in the rural areas. He mostly made up territory for Dems in urban/suburban Wichita. Democrats do need a better rural strategy--with one we may have, in fact, won KS-04. The rural South and Plains, however, are going to continue to be deadzones. If we can consolidate control in the Pacific West and Northeast; make progress in traditionally conservative urban/suburban areas like GA-06, GA-07, TX-32, and TX-07; and hold our own in the rural West and rust belt, that, it seems to me, is the best route to a majority.

This either Hillary OR Bernie strategy stuff is nonsense. It has to be BOTH suburban D-growth areas like Orange County (CA) AND populist ancestrally Democratic areas like rural Minnesota/Wisconsin.

If Quist wins MT-AL, it will show that a populist Sanders-oriented strategy may work. While Thompson was certainly more of a Sanders Democrat, his performance relied more on a Hillary+ coalition than something Sanderseque.

Actually Thompson's swing from Trump in Sedgwick County was almost exactly the same as his swing from Trump in the district as a whole.
Sedgewick county has like 70% of the vote in the district, so it would be very surprising if its swing didn't closely match the overall district's swing.

My point is that he didn't do any worse (compared to Trump) in the rural counties than in Sedgwick.
More accurately the "bookend" counties in the west and east had a negative trend between Davis and Thompson while the rural and small town areas south of Wichita south of Wichita had a positive trend. Wichita/Sedgwick were right in the middle of the trend.
This probably has more to do with elasticity between state and federal elections than anything else.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #502 on: April 17, 2017, 03:27:40 PM »

Sanders is apparently going to campaign for Quist. Good for him or bad?

http://www.kpax.com/story/35167743/bernie-sanders-to-campaign-for-rob-quist-across-montana
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #503 on: April 17, 2017, 03:46:17 PM »


I don't think any undecideds are going to go against Quist because Sanders is out there. If anyone has heard anything about this race, it's that Gianforte is an "out of state" billionaire, and Quist is an in-debt single payer supporter.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #504 on: April 19, 2017, 09:44:10 AM »

If Quist does pull it out in the special, how much of it will be Gianforte's fault as a flawed candidate? And how likely would he be to lose come 2018?

(Dems get worked up about KS-04, but a lot of that was seemingly Brownback blowback, not necessarily a straight aversion to Trump.)
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Holmes
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« Reply #505 on: April 19, 2017, 12:10:02 PM »

Gianforte being a crappy candidate definitely does play a big factor in this race. Republicans have been lining up real stinkers lately. Estes, Gianforte, Handel...
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #506 on: April 19, 2017, 06:55:30 PM »

Here come the good ole Karl Rove dirty tricks:

Lmao I'm just imagining Bliss' bowtie spinning as he garbles that out of his mouth
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #507 on: April 20, 2017, 01:53:28 PM »

DCCC putting $$$ into MT-AL:

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rob-quist-montana-democrats_us_58f8d7e6e4b018a9ce58eb82?hzp
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #508 on: April 20, 2017, 02:03:35 PM »


Freakin finally
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #509 on: April 20, 2017, 02:25:57 PM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist likes guns and doesn't like TVs
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Holmes
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« Reply #510 on: April 20, 2017, 02:26:40 PM »


Not my kind of guy!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #511 on: April 20, 2017, 02:30:37 PM »

I give his ad an A+. Total Boss.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #512 on: April 20, 2017, 03:17:38 PM »

Cute use of a Winchester repeater XD

Hopefully it reads well, if you want to dissect it the editing makes it look like he doesn't actually shoot the TV, but I doubt anyone who doesn't desperately want to discredit Quist is gonna try that hard.

In other news, I'm quickly discovering that I might like the MT Dems most out of any state party in the country.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #513 on: April 20, 2017, 03:24:45 PM »


Outrageous. This man has the audacity to shoot a TV? Unendorsed.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #514 on: April 20, 2017, 03:30:37 PM »

Quits has now raised over 2 million https://mobile.twitter.com/alyssaaroberts/status/855153155872628736
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #515 on: April 20, 2017, 03:31:38 PM »

Great ad.

"...while a millionaire from New Jersey..."  Drag him, Rob!
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #516 on: April 20, 2017, 03:44:05 PM »


Love the ad, but some of the left won't. Cenk Uygur in particular hated Grimes's shotgun ad.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #517 on: April 20, 2017, 03:56:25 PM »

i get headache from progressives dissing blue dogs or at least gun-loving abortion-critics doing their thing in ruby red districts.

even worse than alabama freedom caucusers bashing massachussetts republican moderates, cause there are far more potential seats in red states than the other way aroumd.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #518 on: April 20, 2017, 04:11:53 PM »


Outrageous. This man has the audacity to shoot a TV? Unendorsed.

Don't underestimate stupid stunts like this. It saved Joe Manchin in 2010. Remember, he was even down in the polls before that ad.

It was the "hicky" casting call that cost Raese his lead.
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Skunk
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« Reply #519 on: April 20, 2017, 04:13:14 PM »

Kander had the better gun ad.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #520 on: April 20, 2017, 04:15:25 PM »


Kander is a trained military marksman; Quist has his family Winchester from his ranch upbringing. They're gonna be different.
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Holmes
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« Reply #521 on: April 20, 2017, 04:16:38 PM »


I don't think that's a distinction that he'll lose easily. I think Democrats in the Trump era will become more pro-gun. Not because of pols changing minds but because I can see a decent amount of Democrats being elected in gun-friendly districts next year.
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cinyc
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« Reply #522 on: April 20, 2017, 04:16:48 PM »

RRH is trying to raise money to poll this race.  Due to the robocall ban, they need about $2000.  Yikes.  If I had only known yesterday, before I decided to put my crappy Google Survey into the field...
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Holmes
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« Reply #523 on: April 20, 2017, 04:19:06 PM »


Lol, chill. He will vote for gun restrictions, etc. once he is in Congress. This is part of the shtick, we saw this with Tester and Kander as well.

Can't support his anti-TV views.
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Skunk
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« Reply #524 on: April 20, 2017, 04:34:12 PM »


I don't think that's a distinction that he'll lose easily. I think Democrats in the Trump era will become more pro-gun. Not because of pols changing minds but because I can see a decent amount of Democrats being elected in gun-friendly districts next year.

Oh I'm not saying what effect this will have on the race (if any) with that comment, I'm just saying Kander's ad was better.
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