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| | |-+  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 110180 times)
Zyzz
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« Reply #1050 on: May 19, 2017, 11:13:48 pm »
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I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

I used to browse FreeRepublic.com back in the late 2000's, to see what the enemy was up to. It was a real nasty right wing extremist website filled with lots of racism towards Obama. Oddly enough though, even among those hard line Tea Party types they we're always cracking jokes about pot and a bunch admitted to smoking pot themselves back in the 60's and 70's and thought the government should stay the hell out of the issue.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 11:17:33 pm by Zyzz »Logged

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« Reply #1051 on: May 20, 2017, 01:43:35 am »
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FWIW, some of the biggest anti-legalization opponents I've known are women aged 35-60 (i.e. moms). I'm pretty sure in every state with a legalization vote so far, men voted in support by a greater percentage than women did.
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« Reply #1052 on: May 20, 2017, 02:30:44 am »
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Ryan Zinke is a powerful lad - Look at the way he picked Karen Pence like a doll. Mike Pence continued watching as his wife danced with Zinke !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOWeufF9pMs

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« Reply #1053 on: May 20, 2017, 12:28:26 pm »
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What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?
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Castro
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« Reply #1054 on: May 20, 2017, 01:03:03 pm »
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Sanders adviser says 4000 people are at the Quist/Sanders Missoula rally:



https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/865988723720286208
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1055 on: May 20, 2017, 01:14:39 pm »
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What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?

Trade hasn't really been a major issue in this race. Quist talked about closing tax loopholes for companies that are out-sourcing jobs overseas and reforming the tax code for small businesses, etc., while Gianforte (enough with this now Tongue) wants to expand free trade, unsurprisingly. He apparently agrees with Trump that TPP was a bad deal the US.

Take all of this with a grain of salt, of course.

Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.

I doubt that's the case, and it still wouldn't explain such an incredibly wide gap. Quist might do better than Bullock in Flathead while Gianforte might do significantly better (>5-point win) in Yellowstone than he did in 2012, but other than that I doubt you'll see many abnormalities.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 01:19:43 pm by MT Treasurer »Logged
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« Reply #1056 on: May 20, 2017, 01:21:51 pm »
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Sanders adviser says 4000 people are at the Quist/Sanders Missoula rally:



https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/865988723720286208

Isn't that half the state?  (I kid, I kid.)
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« Reply #1057 on: May 20, 2017, 01:31:28 pm »
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More pics coming in - Quite a few people !










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« Reply #1058 on: May 20, 2017, 01:45:28 pm »
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^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1059 on: May 20, 2017, 02:02:20 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).
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« Reply #1060 on: May 20, 2017, 02:18:41 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.
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« Reply #1061 on: May 20, 2017, 02:26:59 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.

-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.
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« Reply #1062 on: May 20, 2017, 02:34:19 pm »
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Democrats win in Montana by narrow margins, Tester/Bullock by 4% odd & with seasoned well-liked politicians running a good campaign. If Quist sneaks out a victory it will by 1-3% points odd. This race was a Gianforte +5/6% & remains so unless there are some decent polls showing otherwise.

Special elections are all about turnout (& even normal elections to a lesser extent). The Kansas 04 seat from from being 25-30% R to 7% odd R thanks to high Dem turnout, so a seat like Montana could flip with very high Dem turnout (& solid independent support) !
« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 02:36:34 pm by Shadows »Logged

Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1063 on: May 20, 2017, 02:43:51 pm »
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Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.

-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.

I have substantially upped the probability that we could be in a serious Dem wave environment not far off from those years.  No telling if it holds to 2018, though.
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« Reply #1064 on: May 20, 2017, 02:45:58 pm »
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-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.

I don't know, lol. I guess anything from Quist +5 to Gianforte +7 is possible, but right now I believe a 4- or 5-point GOP victory is the most likely outcome. Hardly a very confident prediction, though.

Someone said that there might be a "surprise landslide" (either candidate winning surprisingly easily, and certainly much easier than expected), but I think the state is too polarized for that to happen. Both candidates have a pretty high floor.

My brain tells me the GOP will win by 4-5, my gut tells me we might be surprised on election day. We'll find out soon enough. Smiley
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Figueira
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« Reply #1065 on: May 20, 2017, 03:00:29 pm »
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Are there a significant number of people in Montana who will vote Democratic no matter what, except in presidential races?
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« Reply #1066 on: May 20, 2017, 03:40:13 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?
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« Reply #1067 on: May 20, 2017, 03:49:29 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?
« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 03:56:43 pm by cinyc »Logged
mattocaster6
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« Reply #1068 on: May 20, 2017, 06:15:23 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc
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cinyc
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« Reply #1069 on: May 20, 2017, 06:19:08 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 06:23:50 pm by cinyc »Logged
mattocaster6
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« Reply #1070 on: May 20, 2017, 06:29:45 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

Do you think that if Quist, or Gianforte leads beyond the margin of error of the google poll, that it can be safely said that candidate is in fact in the lead? Like, how accurate are google polls when you take the margin of error into account?
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mattocaster6
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« Reply #1071 on: May 20, 2017, 06:35:46 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)
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mattocaster6
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« Reply #1072 on: May 20, 2017, 06:40:20 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

Do you have a Discord account or any kind of instant messaging account we can chat on?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1073 on: May 20, 2017, 06:42:12 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

26 responses isn't nearly enough to be a reasonable sample.  Regardless of what it says about MoE, you can't really draw any kind of conclusions at this point.
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« Reply #1074 on: May 20, 2017, 06:46:58 pm »
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Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.

For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

26 responses isn't nearly enough to be a reasonable sample.  Regardless of what it says about MoE, you can't really draw any kind of conclusions at this point.

That's what I pretty much expected.
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