MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Adam Griffin]

...and Quist officially crosses the "but muh DCCC" threshold of irrelevance.

[NeederNodder]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Takeaways:

1) Republicans stayed loyal

2) Quist was a poor candidate with too many skeletons in his closet who ran a bad campaign according to MT Treasurer, whom I trust. These things made him unlike Bullock, Tester and Schweitzer

3) Early vote screwed Quist

Why do Dems skeletons seem to matter more than Rs? Trump had debt issues and tax issues no he didn't play at a nudist resort but did admit to grabbing women's genitals.

some voting blocs are more forgiving -and that can't be cultivated.

[Holmes]

...and Quist officially crosses the "but muh DCCC" threshold of irrelevance.

Won't stop some people.

[Beet]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Looking like a smart move.

[Brittain33]

So if he's guilty of the misdemeanor, can he stay in the House? Or will he have to resign?

House can choose to expel him or not seat him. If it's a fine or a short jail sentence, they'll let him be a congressman.

[NeederNodder]

Takeaways:

1) Republicans stayed loyal

2) Quist was a poor candidate with too many skeletons in his closet who ran a bad campaign according to MT Treasurer, whom I trust. These things made him unlike Bullock, Tester and Schweitzer

3) Early vote screwed Quist

Why do Dems skeletons seem to matter more than Rs? Trump had debt issues and tax issues no he didn't play at a nudist resort but did admit to grabbing women's genitals.

The magical (R)

[TML]

Remember this statement on the NY Times forecast page during the 2016 general election, while the election results were filtering in:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Greg Gianforte (Republican)    48.7%   99,754
Rob Quist (Democratic)    45.5%   93,193
Mark Wicks (Libertarian)    5.7%   11,752

GG + 3.2% over RQ

[Maxwell]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

[RI]

Gianforte still on pace for a ~7 point win.

[Hammy]

Honestly, what on earth led people here to think the Dems could win this? This thread has been utterly facepalm worthy on a daily basis.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Honestly, what on earth led people here to think the Dems could win this? This thread has been utterly facepalm worthy on a daily basis.

BUT MUH SENSUAL PEOPLE, MUH MORALS! /s

Mostly because people thought Trump's unpopularity plus slamgate would swing enough people to vote Quist.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Honestly, what on earth led people here to think the Dems could win this? This thread has been utterly facepalm worthy on a daily basis.

Trump in office plus slamgate.

[Matty]

Quist won election day vote in yellowstone by 7%

[This account no longer in use.]

Calling the race as a loss this early is still a bad idea.

[AtorBoltox]

Honestly, what on earth led people here to think the Dems could win this? This thread has been utterly facepalm worthy on a daily basis.

We overestimated the decency of the people of Montana

[Badger]

LOL someone is triggered, my posts are getting deleted.

Honestly, that's probably good for the quality of this forum. You always predict the very worst to happen to yourself and your party, pretend it never happened when you're wrong, and on the occasions that you're right obsessively demand apologies from people who call you out for your behavior and claim you're one of the smartest posters here. It gets very tiring to deal with very quickly.

When did I pretend it never happened? I freely admit when I am wrong. I was wrong about France. But people on here act like I am always wrong, and keep bringing up ebola and Fukushima as if I'm some crazed idiot, and never mention my correct analysis which is often years ahead of time.

Jesus, AGAIN, get OVER yourself, Beet.

[136or142]

Why is Yellowstone County so Republican?

Republicans stick together because they seem to be much more cult like.  How many Republicans in Montana have quoted the lie that "Gianforte was provoked"?  I'm sincerely asking but my guess is, to the degree they bring this incident up, they're repeating it like parrots.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Update: 5/25/2017 11:01PM
Just over an hour in and 200K votes have been cast. Very impressive speed, Montana. Gianforte's situation continues to look good, but much of the election day votes is still out

[MT Treasurer]

FYI, I created this map a month ago. It shows what a Gianforte +5 victory (that was my original prediction) would look like. So far, it is looking almost exactly like that, maybe a bit better than that for Rs - assuming election day votes aren't significantly more Democratic than usual, which is a big if.

I will try to post a county map soon, but this is my prediction for now (I probably won't update it before election day):

50.8% Gianforte (R)
46.3% Quist (D)
2.9% Wicks (L)

For what it's worth (probably not much), here is my county map prediction:

[Angrie]

Quist won election day vote in yellowstone by 7%

Isn't that like 27 points better than the early vote was?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Quist won election day vote in yellowstone by 7%

Source?

[Matty]

Quist won election day vote in yellowstone by 7%

Source?

some unverified twitter account named sammy snickers.

Prob baloney

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Greg Gianforte (Republican)    48.9%   101,412
Rob Quist (Democratic)    45.3%   93,900
Mark Wicks (Libertarian)    5.7%   11,901

GG +3.6% over RQ