MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, remember quist isn't exactly prince charming here. Yea, he didn't assault anyone, but he has some major sketchy background issues. It probably turned a lot of potential voters away.

Almost everybody who lives in Montana (excluding Nat-Ams) is either a dirty rancher, a vagrant or a hippie. I'm not sure why the "I take showers at truck stops" or "all organic gluten-free" crowds would be turned off.

[Beet]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Thank you. Alright, someone has seen the point, I'm out.

[Yank2133]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Yeah, Beet is a chicken little. But he is right about this, D's need to kick Bernie to curb. His message just doesn't translate to any electoral success.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

You know, this is a R+11 district, and the only district in the country more Republican than R+5 with a Democrat has one who endorsed Bernie in the primary?

[Badger]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Yeah, Beet is a chicken little. But he is right about this, D's need to kick Bernie to curb. His message just translate to any electoral success.

Coming within 4-5% in Montana with a flawed candidate ain't so bad (granted, Trump and Assaultforte helped).

[Virginiá]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

[Thomas Jackson]

Drudge and RRH called for Gianforte!

http://rrhelections.com/

http://www.drudgereport.com

[Technocracy Timmy]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Yeah, Beet is a chicken little. But he is right about this, D's need to kick Bernie to curb. His message just doesn't translate to any electoral success.

They need to find a way to synthesize the Sanders and Obama messages together. Throwing out both wings of the Party isn't good strategy.

And the hardcore triangulating third way types of the 90's have been fading since 2008 and aren't coming back.

[Adam Griffin]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

Can we please not start this discussion in here right now? We just got rid of Beet, ffs.

[Matty]

Drudge and RRH called for Gianforte!

wtf does drudge know about forecasting?

He had trump winning va on election night 2016 with that stupid asterisk.

[Kamala]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

It would be injudicious to assume that Bernie-style populism didn't augment Quist's loss.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Georgia was always more winnable than here. even if Quist loses by <5% it's still pretty ok IMO.

[Virginiá]

fair enough

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

[The_Doctor]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

[Maxwell]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

I think that's absolutely fair to say and also this scandal happened after 2/3rds of the vote was already cast and most polls showed Gianforte up either 8 or 13 (disregarding, ofc, GOP internals and, lol, Google Consumer Surveys).

Btw, it's time to ban Google Consumer Surveys forever.

[jamestroll]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

[The_Doctor]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

But the swing can tell us a lot, if you average them.

[Matty]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

But the swing can tell us a lot, if you average them.

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

[136or142]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

Until humans are perfected, every candidate will have a lot of baggage.  So, I don't think that explains Quist losing.  Montana Democrats apparently thought he was a strong candidate at the beginning of the race.

[Hammy]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

But the swing can tell us a lot, if you average them.

This is how I've been looking at. We've had a bunch of safe R seats so far, but they've all been to the left of the presidential and congressional elections just six months ago. That definitely means something as far as the general image of Trump to the electorate.

[Yank2133]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Yeah, Beet is a chicken little. But he is right about this, D's need to kick Bernie to curb. His message just translate to any electoral success.

Coming within 4-5% in Montana with a flawed candidate ain't so bad (granted, Trump and Assaultforte helped).

It is good moral victory, but Bernie-backed candidates (outside of the NH delegate) have been failures so far.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

[The_Doctor]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

But the swing can tell us a lot, if you average them.

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

That's true enough. Well, did we have an idea in the averages in 2009 - 2010 specials? MA was definitely a good harbinger of 2010 with the GOP victory.

[Badger]

Drudge and RRH called for Gianforte!

wtf does drudge know about forecasting?

He had trump winning va on election night 2016 with that stupid asterisk.

Two posts in a row I totally agree with Marty.

Wha?