MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Virginiá]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

[Hammy]

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

Didn't Coakley run an unusually terrible campaign though?

[The_Doctor]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

[Matty]

lead is up to 6.2 with 46% in.

What was jeff roe, cruz's manager, talking about today with his assertion that the EV would favor quist by ten?

[Roronoa D. Law]

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

Didn't Coakley run an unusually terrible campaign though?

Democrats are more likely to vote for a different party than Republican voters.

[krazen1211]

lead is up to 6.2 with 46% in.

What was jeff roe, cruz's manager, talking about today with his assertion that the EV would favor quist by ten?

Jeff Roe kind of botched Missouri in the primary.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

[Libertarian in Name Only]

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

Didn't Coakley run an unusually terrible campaign though?

I was too young to remember but I do remember a lot of hype about the election, and in particular Scott Brown. Lots of people very motivated, particularly Republicans.

[heatcharger]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

You know, this is a R+11 district, and the only district in the country more Republican than R+5 with a Democrat has one who endorsed Bernie in the primary?

But what happened to the "most popular politician in America" and his legendary appeal to WWC? I'll concede that Montana is not the best place to test that theory, but it looks like his popularity among that demographic doesn't translate into votes for candidates of his mold.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean... Quist is definitely a good fit for the state on paper, but talking folksy and wearing a cowboy hat isn't going to seal the deal when your campaign isn't well-run. I know it sounds crazy to the people who think Gianforte is literally worse than Akin because he lost to a popular incumbent governor by 4 points, but before #Assaultgate, Gianforte did much better than even many Republicans thought he would do (good debate performance, strong retail politics, sounding authentic, securing newspaper endorsements, etc.). IMO, the biggest mistake the Quist campaign made is that they were constantly repeating their "But Gianforte is a multimilloynah from NJ!" and "Russia!" talking points over and over again. I predicted a 5-point GOP victory for weeks and only changed it yesterday because of this stupid incident. But again, that's just my opinion.

All things considered, a 5-point loss here isn't really that bad for Democrats, plus they will probably win in GA anyway.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

The Crow tribe endorsed the GOP candidate for the first time in a long time because the tribal economy is dependent on coal (and like, Quist's staff must have taken them for granted or something)

[Technocracy Timmy]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

You know, this is a R+11 district, and the only district in the country more Republican than R+5 with a Democrat has one who endorsed Bernie in the primary?

But what happened to the "most popular politician in America" and his legendary appeal to WWC? I'll concede that Montana is not the best place to test that theory, but it looks like his popularity among that demographic doesn't translate into votes for candidates of his mold.

Aren't the interior plains a far more libertarian rather than populist part of the country? Or is that assessment wrong I know Montana is slightly more populist than its next door neighbors but overall I'm not sure if it would qualify as a populist state.

[Virginiá]

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

Who knows. I like to think that if Trump / Republicans are already hurting this much just months into his presidency, imagine over a year from now. Trump is wrecking the party's brand.

And yes, things could improve, but Trump so far seems like the personification of entropy. Things always seem to get worse with him.

[Badger]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

Not with current gerrymandering, IMHO.

[Yank2133]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

You know, this is a R+11 district, and the only district in the country more Republican than R+5 with a Democrat has one who endorsed Bernie in the primary?

But what happened to the "most popular politician in America" and his legendary appeal to WWC? I'll concede that Montana is not the best place to test that theory, but it looks like his popularity among that demographic doesn't translate into votes for candidates of his mold.

Teachout underperforming in 2016 should have been a warning sign. National D's really overrated how much appeal Bernie truly has.

[Young Conservative]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

Montana's political bench for both sides is notoriously thin and both candidates are immensely flawed. Recruitment isn't to blame for this race's failure on the side of Democrats.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

The Crow tribe endorsed the GOP candidate for the first time in a long time because the tribal economy is dependent on coal (and like, Quist's staff must have taken them for granted or something)

But they endorsed Clinton last year - not exactly a friend of coal.

[Sumner 1868]

Running a candidate who supports gun control was a terrible idea.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Beet thinks this is 1996, the era of DLC moderate heroism.

[Badger]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

The Crow tribe endorsed the GOP candidate for the first time in a long time because the tribal economy is dependent on coal (and like, Quist's staff must have taken them for granted or something)

Ah-ha! FINALLY an answer to the mystery that's been nagging me (and others) all night. Thank you!

[Hammy]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

You know, this is a R+11 district, and the only district in the country more Republican than R+5 with a Democrat has one who endorsed Bernie in the primary?

But what happened to the "most popular politician in America" and his legendary appeal to WWC? I'll concede that Montana is not the best place to test that theory, but it looks like his popularity among that demographic doesn't translate into votes for candidates of his mold.

Sanders has WWC appeal. But Montana is not the Rust Belt. While I think Sanders would've been a better candidate (and would've won) don't take that to mean his supporters think he would've won huge margins in every state--but he certainly wouldn't have lost the "firewall" states that Clinton lost, and would've made one or two pickups. And that said there are places where Berniecrats would definately do better than 'standard' Dems, and those places are not the rural west.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What is Schweitzer up to these days?

Recalibrating his gaydar.

The hell does that mean?

It's a reference to this. there had been speculation he'd run for Senate or President before he said that.

[Matty]

Lead up to 7% with 251k in

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Running a candidate who supports gun control was a terrible idea.

Quist isn't pro-gun control?

[Badger]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

The Crow tribe endorsed the GOP candidate for the first time in a long time because the tribal economy is dependent on coal (and like, Quist's staff must have taken them for granted or something)

But they endorsed Clinton last year - not exactly a friend of coal.

That is an interesting point. Wonder why the switch?

At any rate, it unquestionably has to do with Quist's piss-poor showing in Big Horn.