MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[NOVA Green]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Extreme Republican----

I love you man and find you to generally be a fairly straight-shooter type poster, but surely you must admit that this bit of hyberbole (Abortion as a major issue in the '17 MT Special Election) is a bit over the top???

Considering that Montana is actually one of the most Pro-Choice states in the nation, I find it hard to see how this explains tonight's election results.....

I get it you are excited and happy about the outcome and the election of a protegee of one of the most Anti-Choice Political candidates ever elected in the Great State of Montana.... but come on man this wasn't the reason for the election outcome at all.....

[Beet]

The AP still hasn't called it, but NY Times has projected GF as the winner. I'm also calling it for the GOP.

Lol. This race was over hours ago.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

About an hour after I called this, AP finally calls it for Assaulterforte.

[Sumner 1868]

Democrats gained no House seats in the 2005 special elections for the record.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Extreme Republican----

I love you man and find you to generally be a fairly straight-shooter type poster, but surely you must admit that this bit of hyberbole (Abortion as a major issue in the '17 MT Special Election) is a bit over the top???

Considering that Montana is actually one of the most Pro-Choice states in the nation, I find it hard to see how this explains tonight's election results.....

I get it you are excited and happy about the outcome and the election of a protegee of one of the most Anti-Choice Political candidates ever elected in the Great State of Montana.... but come on man this wasn't the reason for the election outcome at all.....

Try not to reason with someone who thinks chicken eggs are actually chicken abortions.

[Kamala]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Extreme Republican----

I love you man and find you to generally be a fairly straight-shooter type poster, but surely you must admit that this bit of hyberbole (Abortion as a major issue in the '17 MT Special Election) is a bit over the top???

Considering that Montana is actually one of the most Pro-Choice states in the nation, I find it hard to see how this explains tonight's election results.....

I get it you are excited and happy about the outcome and the election of a protegee of one of the most Anti-Choice Political candidates ever elected in the Great State of Montana.... but come on man this wasn't the reason for the election outcome at all.....

Try not to reason with someone who thinks chicken eggs are actually chicken abortions.

In cases of legitimate omelet, the female hen's body has a way of, uh, shutting the whole thing down.

[Yank2133]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

This is the easy answer. Instead of looking at vast swaths of the country disappearing from Democratic control over the course of a decade, and Republican governments in states like Wisconsin and Kansas utterly DECIMATING the livelihoods of their voters, it's far easier to say that either you've just lost one giant group of voters forever and/or that rural folk just decided to become anti-establishment for no apparent reason besides spite. It can't possibly be that Democrats lost their way with rural voters and fell out of touch when it wouldn't support the policies that would alleviate their economic stress.

If the answer for the Democratic Party's future lies in suburban "Panera bread" districts, then it has no future. As soon as Trump's out of office, most likely before or after 2020, these anti-Trump Republicans that are voting for guys like Ossoff are going to go back to voting Republican. That could happen as soon as 2022. Suburban voters don't support liberal policies. They don't even support centrist policies like Obamacare that tried to balance private health insurance with Medicare. Suburban voters have, throughout history, been some of the biggest breeders of fascism in multiple countries including our own.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

[Matty]

Wasserman is saying quist is doing slightly better with election day voters than with early voters.

Opposite of what happened elsehwere/

[HAnnA MArin County]

Democrats gained no House seats in the 2005 special elections for the record.

Well we would have had SHE not voted for the Iraq War.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wasserman is saying quist is doing slightly better with election day voters than with early voters.

Opposite of what happened elsehwere/

It sounds like the Bernie rally and the bodyslamming happened too late to win this.

[Chief Justice Keef]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Wasserman is saying quist is doing slightly better with election day voters than with early voters.

Opposite of what happened elsehwere/

It sounds like the Bernie rally and the bodyslamming happened too late to win this.

Bernie's rallies aren't enough to make up a seven-point deficit, but in hindsight it's kind of strange that they did those so late in the game.

[Matty]

So that new poll is the gold standard?

[Beet]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

LOL at the notion that Hillary was a Justice/Bel Edwards/Manchin-style centrist. Maybe she was in 1996 or even 2008, but Bernie pushed her so far to the left she was unrecognizable.

[Adam Griffin]

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If by "I love gay marriage", then sure. If we're talking about basic economically redistributionary policies that have historically been the cornerstone of the Democratic Party, absolutely not.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

[Yank2133]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

History says no.

Just look at the type of Democrats who had any kind of success in those regions. Some on the left don't want to hear it, but left-wing economics isn't some silver bullet that will win over these type of voters.

[Deblano]

Obviously we can't have a reasonable or semi-intelligible conversation about this race other than "lol left wing populism doesn't work" or "shut up DINOs" and other people empty quoting one another. Gross.

This is what a party undergoing a civil war looks like.

This is why I'm an independent instead of a Republican or a Democrat.

[HAnnA MArin County]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

LOL at the notion that Hillary was a Justice/Bel Edwards/Manchin-style centrist. Maybe she was in 1996 or even 2008, but Bernie pushed her so far to the left she was unrecognizable.

But she voted for the Iraq War and gave speeches to Wall Street and therefore that makes her a far right wing Republican.

[Suburbia]

Obviously we can't have a reasonable or semi-intelligible conversation about this race other than "lol left wing populism doesn't work" or "shut up DINOs" and other people empty quoting one another. Gross.

This is what a party undergoing a civil war looks like.

This is why I'm an independent instead of a Republican or a Democrat.

[Hindsight was 2020]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

Nope sorry to break it to you but rural areas are finishing a turn red that has been happening since Reagan an now suburban areas are shifting blue. An like some reps would of been saying about rural voters with Reagan you are dead wrong on suburanties be only a temporary shift

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Silver: "A night where Democrats are losing Montana by 'only' 6 or 7 points is consistent with the sort of map you might see if Democrats were either taking over the House, or coming pretty close to it."

Take that as you will.

[Kamala]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

I wish the voters would agree - by voting against Democrats who promise such things, they vote against their own interests. But in much of the plains, the notion has become that nearly all actions by the government are bad - government has become a grotesque notion of what it actually is; some sort of faceless, evil political corporation instead of an assembly of citizens.

[136or142]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Doesn't really fit here, but a fetus is not a human, moron.

After all... human women give birth to monkeys, sea urchins, dolphins and all sorts of things.

Fine, a first trimester fetus is not a human.  You know, the trimester when 99% of abortions really occur, whatever you idiot Republicans lie to each other.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

I don't give a sh*t if it is "elitist" but that is deplorable