MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

This thing isn't going to hurt Republicans unless they can pass it in the Senate - in other words, not going to happen. But I admire your optimism.

If Quist wins, it won't be because of this.

Oh sure, I'm saying that his support would go up,not that he has the support to win off the ahca alone.

I was thinking the same thing to but I think there is a better chance that it affects GA-6 more than MT-AL. Still heading into election day with a Health Care debate will hurt Gianforte especially if the CBO score is worse than the last one. I think the race will still be in single digits regardless of who wins.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Looks like Gianforte is the GOP caucus problem now.

[Roronoa D. Law]

And Fairfax County just came in! Gianforte took the lead!!!!!!!!!

How can you be happy about this? :/

I just like the Fairfax County comparison, because this always happens in VA.

Well Fairfax is the largest county in the VA.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

[Roronoa D. Law]

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

Didn't Coakley run an unusually terrible campaign though?

Democrats are more likely to vote for a different party than Republican voters.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

The Crow tribe endorsed the GOP candidate for the first time in a long time because the tribal economy is dependent on coal (and like, Quist's staff must have taken them for granted or something)

But they endorsed Clinton last year - not exactly a friend of coal.

That is an interesting point. Wonder why the switch?

At any rate, it unquestionably has to do with Quist's piss-poor showing in Big Horn.

Quist really didn't hit coal that hard if at all especially compared to HRC.