MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[socaldem]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

So?

Serious question: what does pan sexual even mean? Is it just a fancier buzzword for bisexuality or is it honestly something different?

Pansexuals say that "bisexual" implies being attracted only to people who fit within one of the two traditionally defined sexes, but they are attracted to all people, including people who do not conform to traditional sex stereotypes. Some bisexual people will say, for example, that they are not attracted to feminine men even though they are attracted to feminine women and to masculine men, but a pansexual person by definition is attracted to feminine men as much as masculine men.

I think it is sort of silly, but you can definitely watch a bisexual person and a pansexual person have a serious argument about it.

Hmm. I mean that sort of makes sense, but I agree it's a bit silly. Sounds to me more like picky bi people versus less picky bi people. Which is no problem - different strokes, etc, but I don't know if that warrants a completely different sexual categorization

The key difference is that pan-sexuals are trans-inclusive. The term "pansexual" rejects the gender binary that is implied by the term "bi-sexual."

[socaldem]

If Quist wins or just comes closer than Ossoff, that will have profound implications for the Bernie strategy vs. the Clinton strategy, particularly if KS-04 ends up closer than GA-06.  In other words, if Ossoff actually is mired in the 30's, it should be taken as an early indication Clinton's massive overperformance in the Sunbelt suburbs was a one-time thing.  The KS and MT races being close would suggest it is possible to get enough rural voters back.

It should be noted that Thompson in KS-04 did terribly in the rural areas. He mostly made up territory for Dems in urban/suburban Wichita. Democrats do need a better rural strategy--with one we may have, in fact, won KS-04. The rural South and Plains, however, are going to continue to be deadzones. If we can consolidate control in the Pacific West and Northeast; make progress in traditionally conservative urban/suburban areas like GA-06, GA-07, TX-32, and TX-07; and hold our own in the rural West and rust belt, that, it seems to me, is the best route to a majority.

This either Hillary OR Bernie strategy stuff is nonsense. It has to be BOTH suburban D-growth areas like Orange County (CA) AND populist ancestrally Democratic areas like rural Minnesota/Wisconsin.

If Quist wins MT-AL, it will show that a populist Sanders-oriented strategy may work. While Thompson was certainly more of a Sanders Democrat, his performance relied more on a Hillary+ coalition than something Sanderseque.

[socaldem]

If Quist wins or just comes closer than Ossoff, that will have profound implications for the Bernie strategy vs. the Clinton strategy, particularly if KS-04 ends up closer than GA-06.  In other words, if Ossoff actually is mired in the 30's, it should be taken as an early indication Clinton's massive overperformance in the Sunbelt suburbs was a one-time thing.  The KS and MT races being close would suggest it is possible to get enough rural voters back.

It should be noted that Thompson in KS-04 did terribly in the rural areas. He mostly made up territory for Dems in urban/suburban Wichita. Democrats do need a better rural strategy--with one we may have, in fact, won KS-04. The rural South and Plains, however, are going to continue to be deadzones. If we can consolidate control in the Pacific West and Northeast; make progress in traditionally conservative urban/suburban areas like GA-06, GA-07, TX-32, and TX-07; and hold our own in the rural West and rust belt, that, it seems to me, is the best route to a majority.

This either Hillary OR Bernie strategy stuff is nonsense. It has to be BOTH suburban D-growth areas like Orange County (CA) AND populist ancestrally Democratic areas like rural Minnesota/Wisconsin.

If Quist wins MT-AL, it will show that a populist Sanders-oriented strategy may work. While Thompson was certainly more of a Sanders Democrat, his performance relied more on a Hillary+ coalition than something Sanderseque.

Actually Thompson's swing from Trump in Sedgwick County was almost exactly the same as his swing from Trump in the district as a whole.

Sedgewick county has like 70% of the vote in the district, so it would be very surprising if its swing didn't closely match the overall district's swing.

My point is that he didn't do any worse (compared to Trump) in the rural counties than in Sedgwick.

If we look at Dem performance in KS-04, a good point of comparison is the 2014 gubernatorial race. Paul Davis lost Sedgwick. Meanwhile, Brownback did not receive 70% in any county in the district. Estes exceeded 70% of the vote in 10 of the 17 counties in the district. Davis reached 46% in Cowley and 42% in Sumner, compared to 42% and 35%, respectively, for Thompson.

If we go back to Sebelius' gubernatorial campaigns in 2006 and 2012, Thompson bested her 2002 Sedgwick performance and did marginally worse than she did in 2012. But Sebelius did really well in a number of rural counties, receiving well over 50% in Pratt and Cowley both years.

Clinton underperformed typical Democratic performance in rural counties. A more-or-less uniform swing for Thompson (and presumably other Dems in upcoming midterms/specials) on Clinton's performance indicates a continuation of the Clinton-Trump voting pattern.

This is disappointing because Dems would hope to see a swing in rural areas back to Dems that is STRONGER than the swing in urban/suburban areas where Hillary tended to hold closer to (or even do better than) typical Dem performance.

I hope that Dems can figure out how to win some of these ancestral Dem voters back... a left-wing coalition reliant on wealthy, well-educated suburbanites doesn't seem sustainable...

[socaldem]

The "Wichita had a much bigger anti-Trump backlash than the rest of the district" thing is basically a myth.

Um, how so?

The election results are what they are. And Thompson over-performed in Wichita and under-performed in the rural areas compared to historical Democratic performance.