MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[BuckeyeNut]

Mike Cooney seems like he could be a good candidate for the Democrats. Currently serving as Bullock's Lt. Gov., and was formerly the Secretary of State. So he should have name recognition.

[BuckeyeNut]

ugh the Baucus family sucks

You have more achievements? Or judge people by names, not deeds?

Well Baucus was a pretty worthless Senator when he was in office, even by "moderate hero" standards, and he tried to get his wife confirmed to an office she wasn't confirmed. I have little confidence "Zeno" is going to be much better.

yes i know your schtick is to defend every single conservative democrat or liberal republican regardless of how worthwhile they actually are because that's what you do. and then act superior about it.

And i know your - accuse anybody you dislike with rather worthless accusations, pretending to be a sort of Supreme Court judge at least.. A freedom of opinion and speech doesn't give anybody right to slander..... It's not for you to judge who is worthless and who is not. First - do something HIMSELF - get a degree in serious science, get elected to somewhere, or something like that. AFTER that your opinion will have some weight. Before - zero.

How very Russian.

Anyway, Zeno is an amazing name. Does anyone know if it's biblical like Zebulon?

[BuckeyeNut]

Is Quist still the Democrat you're most afraid of, TN?

[BuckeyeNut]

Seeing a young guy named Dan West all over (my) social media. Running as a Democrat, he worked for NASA under Obama as a political appointee after teaching Physics in Missoula. He's also the grandson of the Heifer International founder.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, Obama appointee Dan West officially in

Your risk assessment as a MT Republican?

[BuckeyeNut]

Why is Gianforte weaker than Buttrey?

[BuckeyeNut]

Well then, I hope Gianforte wins the GOP primary. Especially if it makes him come off as an even bigger opportunist.

[BuckeyeNut]

I feel better about this race because the MT Dems are a lot more competent than GA Dems.

At the convention to replace Walsh they chose Curtis, not exactly "competent"

Curtis is hardly a "perfect" candidate, but Atlas seems to have this strange idea that every candidate who once lost a (basically unwinnable) race is literally WORSE THAN AKIN!!!1! Same with Greg Gianforte. She has appeal among the progressive base in the state, which matters a lot, but I don't think she would win the general. But I'm going to say it again: Republicans can't take this race for granted, no matter which Democrat wins the nomination.

Anyway, thank God it's finally settled. I look forward to the coming two months.

I don't see anything about the convention having happened?

[BuckeyeNut]

I hope Dan West has a future of some kind in MT politics, but I'm excited for Quist.

[BuckeyeNut]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

Bisexual implies you are interested in men and women.
Pansexual implies you are interested in everyone, including people outside the binary.
So?

Serious question: what does pan sexual even mean? Is it just a fancier buzzword for bisexuality or is it honestly something different?

socaldem has it right.

[BuckeyeNut]

Okay, saying that he is "favored" might be a bit too much (even though my gut feeling tells me he is), but it's a Tossup for sure. I might be a bit biased since I like many of Quist's stances (especially on education and foreign policy) much more than Gianforte's, but I'm afraid that he will abandon them once he is in Congress. He's generally a good, likeable person and I'd gladly trade Tester for Quist any day. If Quist were a bit more socially conservative or even pro-life, he'd be the ideal Democrat for me who I would vote for in a heartbeat.

If you're the platonic ideal of the opposition party, so much so that a loyal opposition party member would vote for you eagerly, you're not a good candidate for your party. (Which is to say I'm glad Quist wouldn't make you jump for joy.)

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And the MT GOP is nominating the worst of the bunch?

[BuckeyeNut]

So I see this thread is going well... Anyway, campaign mailings and internet ads on the Quist side aren't being reported, so it's not as if he's spending nothing. I'm highly skeptical that money will make a big difference in this race anyway.

That's definitely true. In fact, _(not)Gov. Gianforte can tell you that money isn't everything.

TNVol: You're obviously on the other side of the aisle, but do you have any idea what Quist's campaign infrastructure looks like? I'm not sure I trust a 70yo first time politician to be a champion organizer, but the party could have put him in good hands.

I don't know much about it, but he's holding many campaign rallies and obviously has a sizable number of volunteers. The MDP is 100% united behind Quist, so that's not an issue. I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.

IIRC, he had 100 volunteers for the day of his launch?

[BuckeyeNut]

release the sanders:

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Better use of his time than stumping for Periello.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Quist does pull it out in the special, how much of it will be Gianforte's fault as a flawed candidate? And how likely would he be to lose come 2018?

(Dems get worked up about KS-04, but a lot of that was seemingly Brownback blowback, not necessarily a straight aversion to Trump.)

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm sorry, but how is "Gianforte doesn't think you should be able to retire" not an attack ad yet?

Chill. He only just got D-Trip money. I'm sure something will come soon.

Though Montana is definitely more of a retail state, and less of a media state, as far as I can tell.

[BuckeyeNut]

Lacking a hunting license seems like a worse hit that performing at a nudist resort.

[BuckeyeNut]

Lacking a hunting license seems like a worse hit that performing at a nudist resort.

Yes but you know it's not like, say, not having a driving license.

Too soon.

[BuckeyeNut]

Remember folks, DCCC is just one piece of national democratic campaign action. And everyone else is staying out.

Also worth noting that for Democratic operatives talking to Politico, the Democratic Party is a coalition of the educated, affluent, and moderate.

D-Trip is the cog in the machine that tackles Congressional campaigns. They can offer non-financial assistance, as they did in Georgia, but you don't campaign in Montana statewide like you do in the Atlanta metro. Other orgs failure to get in is unfortunate but ... they operate very differently.

[BuckeyeNut]

Local papers are now reporting Quist under-reported his income.

Stick a fork in him, boys, he's done.

[BuckeyeNut]

Local papers are now reporting Quist under-reported his income.

Stick a fork in him, boys, he's done.

Ugh. That seems hard to recover from.

Every statewide candidate should honestly just have a life coach/body person to dot their i's and cross their t's.

And influential pols (looking at you Schweitzer, Bullock) should do some vetting before they recruit candidates they think will be *just perfect*.

I'd say that's still on the state party. But... yeah.

[BuckeyeNut]

Are "enthusiastic voters" what they're calling "likely voters"?

[BuckeyeNut]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mitt Romney was the first Republican presidential candidate to be endorsed by the Des Moines Register since 1972.

Guess who won Iowa.

Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat ever endorsed by the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Guess who won Ohio.

Chickenhawk is right, newspaper endorsements don't matter. Not to regular people, anyway. Though they may be indicative of larger trends.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mitt Romney was the first Republican presidential candidate to be endorsed by the Des Moines Register since 1972.

Guess who won Iowa.

Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat ever endorsed by the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Guess who won Ohio.

Chickenhawk is right, newspaper endorsements don't matter. Not to regular people, anyway. Though they may be indicative of larger trends.

If they were indicative of larger trends, Clinton would have won with a 1984-level landslide.

They accurately indicated an elite rebuke of the Republican party at the Presidential level. That's not meaningful of actual votes, though.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why the heck is this on a Thursday again?