MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Hindsight was 2020]

How good of a canidate would Quist be?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sadly, I think Quist has this.

Quist is the strongest they could nominate

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quist wins https://twitter.com/jorgeinmontana/status/838521244572004352

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What appeal does quist have that gives him a chance to win?

He's a local hero/celebrity with name recognition and a general likeability

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quist is precisely the kind of Democrat who can win in Montana, so I really hope he wins. I'd be curious to see how this could effect the GA-6 race, since that runoff will happen a few weeks after this election.

If Quist wins, are Democrats going to be energized and feel they can win in GA, or will Republicans panic and invest heavily in GA-6 in order to save face?

I think more reps panic but it could go the other way

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also two other things:

1. I don't believe Republicans losing a special election here would be devastating news or spell doom for them in 2018. If they lost the Georgia race, it would be much more worrying because it's an inelastic suburban district that has voted strongly Republican in the past. But again: Candidate quality and fundamentals of a state matter. Montana is a purple state and fairly progressive in many regards. Quist could easily win this race. In fact, if he were even half-serious about all the things he stands for and the race wasn't so nationalized, I could see myself supporting him.

2. I wouldn't extrapolate too much from the 2016 presidential results. Clinton was an abysmal fit for this state and Sanders would have come close to beating Trump here.

I disagree because if dems win here and/or Georgia that would more likely mean that "dems don't vote in midterms" is not true but rather "the power in power doesn't show up for midterms" which should scare the GOP for 2018

[Hindsight was 2020]

MT in your opinion is the reason you think Quist could win is Gianforte comes off as a bit phony an just wanting this seat to pad his resume for another shot at Bullock? Cause he kinda rubs me that way an I want to see if that is a general prescription

[Hindsight was 2020]

Treasurer in your opinion if Bullock ran for the nom in 2020 an won it vs a  unpopular Trump that MT going for Bullock due to some state pride/him being a liked governor?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Thanks, Castro!

Now we just need a poll telling us Gianforte +20. J/k, these numbers look quite plausible, honestly, and by election day I think Castro's poll won't be too far off.

@Hindsight: Bullock will not be the Democratic nominee, so speculating about this is kinda pointless. I think he would lose the state by an Obama 2008 margin in a good Democratic year, unless Trump completely implodes (then he could certainly win it). If it's a good R year, though? No chance, even though he would have a high floor.

Donald fing Trump is president so I don't see why Bullock couldn't

[Hindsight was 2020]

In other other news, 800k in TV ads have already been spent on the race.

All of them on the GOP side.

God dammit Perez

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

Goddamn this party how can a group that made Obama president be so out of touch with the ground noise

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

Goddamn this party how can a group that made Obama president be so out of touch with the ground noise

To be fair, I'd be shocked if they don't jump in here by mid-to-late April/early May.  At least Quist seems to be winning so far.

We'll see but nothing they do as a party right now inspires confidence

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.

I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.

But Montana is rural so we can never win despite the fact we have the perfect match-up no GA-6 needs all our resources because district trending an suburban an stuff like that 

[Hindsight was 2020]

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run

You're mad about the money they wasted in FL and NC? What about all the money Schumer pissed away on his own Safe D race in New York?

Anyway, on topic, Republicans could probably dig up some serious dirt on Amanda Curtis. Dems would be smart to look elsewhere. She has some past ties to a communist revolutionary group that weren't really discussed during her 2014 Senate run due to her massive polling deficit against Steve Daines.

Quist is the nom not Curtis

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gianforte raises $1.5 million, Quist $750K for US Congress; Independent Group pledging $700,000 to boost the Gianforte campaign

Don't read too much into these numbers, though.

If anything it could help Quist as it makes him a populist underdog

[Hindsight was 2020]

I did read an article Tom is sending staffers an other help over so it's not completely ignored

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gravis polled the race, and has it at Gianforte +12:

Gianforte 50%
Quist 38%
Wicks 3%
Breck 2%
Uncertain 7%
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-3/
1,222 Voters; MoE +-2.9;  Poll Dates ? - It was released today.


Breck is apparently the Green Party candidate.  Did we miss him getting ballot access, or is Gravis polling someone not on the ballot?

Good job DNC

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quits has announced he has raised 1.3 million in about a month https://mobile.twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/851824112825761793

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DCCC putting $$$ into MT-AL:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rob-quist-montana-democrats_us_58f8d7e6e4b018a9ce58eb82?hzp

Freakin finally

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Quits has now raised over 2 million https://mobile.twitter.com/alyssaaroberts/status/855153155872628736

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Dave Weigel‏ @daveweigel
Scoop: On donor call, Sen. Daines says VP Pence will come next week to campaign for #MTAL nominee Greg Gianforte. (Dems making it close.)

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/860526160828145665

Quist is not dead yet apparently

[Hindsight was 2020]

New Gravis poll coming soon:

Gravis Marketing‏ @GravisMarketing
Montana Poll being released on Monday will show @RobQuistforMT  gaining ground.

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/860859344526729216

Man AHCA could be game changer

[Hindsight was 2020]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

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I'm a bit skeptical about this. What kind of candidate in a potentially close election assaults a reporter the day before the election?

The reporter is clearly a liar. No one in the party God and Jesus Christ would ever do anything wrong /sarc

It happened.

Why must you make this political? You think rpeublicans want to body slam reporters?

It shouldn't be political but it's kinda hard not to feel that way with how Trump treats the press

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sounds like Greg is mad over the CBO score probably had his people telling him this could cost him an he just snapped on a reporter from a newspaper he blamed for his governor race lose