MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Kamala]

Uh, back on topic... While this race doesn't tell us much about 2018 Senate race, it's somewhat of a proxy war between Daines and Tester. Daines is Gianforte's best buddy and encouraged him to run for the special election, and Tester was trying hard to get Quist nominated behind the scenes. So a big Gianforte win/a Quist victory would be pretty disappointing for Tester/Daines, respectively.

Do you think the victor of this race might run for Senate in 2018/2020 (depending on the party)?

I doubt that Gianforte's 3 Elections in 2 Years will help his popularity; it doesn't seem like he'd be able to unseat Tester - he did lose to incumbent Bullock, after all.

[Kamala]

If Quist wins or just comes closer than Ossoff, that will have profound implications for the Bernie strategy vs. the Clinton strategy, particularly if KS-04 ends up closer than GA-06.  In other words, if Ossoff actually is mired in the 30's, it should be taken as an early indication Clinton's massive overperformance in the Sunbelt suburbs was a one-time thing.  The KS and MT races being close would suggest it is possible to get enough rural voters back.

It should be noted that Thompson in KS-04 did terribly in the rural areas. He mostly made up territory for Dems in urban/suburban Wichita. Democrats do need a better rural strategy--with one we may have, in fact, won KS-04. The rural South and Plains, however, are going to continue to be deadzones. If we can consolidate control in the Pacific West and Northeast; make progress in traditionally conservative urban/suburban areas like GA-06, GA-07, TX-32, and TX-07; and hold our own in the rural West and rust belt, that, it seems to me, is the best route to a majority.

This either Hillary OR Bernie strategy stuff is nonsense. It has to be BOTH suburban D-growth areas like Orange County (CA) AND populist ancestrally Democratic areas like rural Minnesota/Wisconsin.

If Quist wins MT-AL, it will show that a populist Sanders-oriented strategy may work. While Thompson was certainly more of a Sanders Democrat, his performance relied more on a Hillary+ coalition than something Sanderseque.

[Kamala]

Gravis Crosstabs:
https://www.scribd.com/document/349161124/CROSSTABS-1

But they have decimals! How could they ever be inaccurate!

[Kamala]

Exactly tied. Down to the actual vote.

[Kamala]

The brightest timeline would have both Quist and Ossoff win, showing that both folksy Berniecrats and Bernie-declared "non-progressive" technocratic moderates have a place in the Democratic Party. Rather than shifting left or right, the party ought to shift out.

[Kamala]

quist in Big Horn and Yellowstone counties...

[Kamala]

I want to meet a Clinton-Gianforte voter.

[Kamala]

Amanda Curtis would've made this race competitive, tbh.

Are you kidding?

Yeah, I doubt we'd have been hearing a steady stream of oppo dumps about her performing at nudist resorts or shady dealings over her rental homes for a couple of months..

Lost by 18% in 2014, atleast Quist is keeping it close !

Wasn't she parachuted in at the 11th hour to replace Walsh?

[Kamala]

Can we take a moment to appreciate the beautiful names of Montana's counties?

[Kamala]

On the upside, if Piano Man wins (as it looks), Democrats will have either a damaged incumbent or an open seat to run for in 2018.

And perhaps a better candidate than Quist 2017 - a more seasoned campaigner...

[Kamala]

I'm not going to lie, I don't think the average citizen really cares about the pushing/slamming incident...

The average Republican doesn't.

Kyung Lah said she talked to GOP'ers who said they were encouraged by Gianforte's actions and wished someone would do that to CNN and MSNBC reporters and it encouraged some of them to come out and vote for Gianforte.

...

I'm at a loss for words.

[Kamala]

What is Schweitzer up to these days?

[Kamala]

What is Schweitzer up to these days?

#SchweitzerWouldveWon

I don't doubt it!

[Kamala]

*brings up star candidate that never would've run*

ugh shut up

sorry

[Kamala]

Both Gianforte and Wicks are over performing, imo.

My guess: Gianforte was headed to a two-digit win, but bled support to Wicks due to the bodyslamming - Quist's support remained constant.

[Kamala]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

It would be injudicious to assume that Bernie-style populism didn't augment Quist's loss.

[Kamala]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

[Kamala]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Well, we could talk about DWS threatening a police chief instead. Would that cheer you up?

I don't follow.

[Kamala]

He slammed ONE reporter.

Probably in the next race, the left should get a female reporter to harass the Republican candidate.  That would have swung many more votes than occurred here.

Maybe send some reporters to beat up the Republican candidate.

[Kamala]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Unity for what? More platitudes like "leading with our values"?

I'm getting sick and tired of moderates punching left and coming back with "now we need to unite, get behind us". Bullcrap. Quist was not a great candidate but he could've won, just like Thompson could've won in April. But Democrats don't have enough confidence in themselves to chin up and make the right calls.

If there was the same amount of energy nationwide for this race as there is in Georgia and Quist had still lost I might be saying different. But there wasn't, and leaders like Tom Perez certainly didn't do enough to drum up interest.

Hmm, let's see if I can explain it better.

There was a reason why Republicans ran people like Mark Kirk in Illinois, Scott Brown in Massachusetts, etc - those were the types of candidates that could win. Sure, they were to the left of the national party, but Illinois and Massachusetts were also significantly to the left of the republicans. They didn't run a Jeff Sessions.

I guess I can't explain it any better after all.

[Kamala]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Extreme Republican----

I love you man and find you to generally be a fairly straight-shooter type poster, but surely you must admit that this bit of hyberbole (Abortion as a major issue in the '17 MT Special Election) is a bit over the top???

Considering that Montana is actually one of the most Pro-Choice states in the nation, I find it hard to see how this explains tonight's election results.....

I get it you are excited and happy about the outcome and the election of a protegee of one of the most Anti-Choice Political candidates ever elected in the Great State of Montana.... but come on man this wasn't the reason for the election outcome at all.....

Try not to reason with someone who thinks chicken eggs are actually chicken abortions.

In cases of legitimate omelet, the female hen's body has a way of, uh, shutting the whole thing down.

[Kamala]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

I wish the voters would agree - by voting against Democrats who promise such things, they vote against their own interests. But in much of the plains, the notion has become that nearly all actions by the government are bad - government has become a grotesque notion of what it actually is; some sort of faceless, evil political corporation instead of an assembly of citizens.

[Kamala]

Gianforte apologizes to Jacobs.

An admission of guilt?

[Kamala]

Who else has a feeling that Tester will lose in 2018?

Well, if he feels the race is getting too close, he can always bodyslam a reporter.

[Kamala]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

History says no.

Just look at the type of Democrats who had any kind of success in those regions. Some on the left don't want to hear it, but left-wing economics isn't some silver bullet that will win over these type of voters.

You have made comments showing very little intellect & continue to make false statements (like Trump) & acting like a political hack.

The Democratic party under FDR & Truman were wild left on economics & won rural white voters & voters everywhere in huge margins. No1 could touch FDR who is considered one of the greatest POTUS' in history.

There is absolutely no statistical or empirical evidence to say rural whites are economically very conservative in which case Rand Paul or Ted Cruz would be the nominee & not Trump. Obama, the so-called Kenya born Muslim socialist communist won the rural votes in Iowa.

As we type, Quist is going to lost by 7% odd, much better than Hillary's 21% margin. KS-04 went from 30% to 6% loss, a massive boost for the Democrats - Both ran as unabashed liberals. Jason Kander who ran a pretty liberal candidacy ran 15-16% points ahead of Hillary or so.

Bernie Sanders was running 10% ahead of Hillary in all polls after a gruelling primary campaign. So you can keep making generalized statements which are completely political hackery & have no business with reality.

I know Franklin Delano Roosevelt. My great-grandparents voted for Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Bernie Sanders is no Franklin Delano Roosevelt.