MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Thomas Jackson]

Drudge and RRH called for Gianforte!

http://rrhelections.com/

http://www.drudgereport.com

[Thomas Jackson]

Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict  2m2 minutes ago

 Projection: Greg Gianforte (R) elected to Congress in #MTAL special, defeating Rob Quist (D).

[Thomas Jackson]

Gianforte up almost 8%! Nevertheless, he persisted!

Big slamming tonight.

QFT!

[Thomas Jackson]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

"And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed – if all records told the same tale – then the lie passed into history and became truth. "Who controls the past," ran the Party slogan, "controls the future: who controls the present controls the past." And yet the past, though of its nature alterable, never had been altered. Whatever was true now was true from everlasting to everlasting. It was quite simple. All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory. "Reality control," they called it: in Newspeak, "doublethink.""

[Thomas Jackson]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Doesn't really fit here, but a fetus is not a human, moron.

After all... human women give birth to monkeys, sea urchins, dolphins and all sorts of things.

[Thomas Jackson]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Doesn't really fit here, but a fetus is not a human, moron.

After all... human women give birth to monkeys, sea urchins, dolphins and all sorts of things.

Fine, a first trimester fetus is not a human.  You know, the trimester when 99% of abortions really occur, whatever you idiot Republicans lie to each other.

So sometime after the first trimester, the horse inside the human woman, morphs into a human.

That's an amazing take on the reproduction and life cycle ..... of humans.

[Thomas Jackson]

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

I love the utter insanity at trying to compare Presidential election results to those of a special election.

ESPECIALLY in a State like Montana which has only a single house seat.

ESPECIALLY since Gianforte LOST in 2016 in the same election:

Montana's Gubernatorial Election, 2016
Party   Candidate   Votes   %
Democratic   Steve Bullock (inc.)   226,399   50
Republican   Greg Gianforte   214,899   47
Libertarian   Ron Vandevender/Marc Mulcahy   15,282   3

There were well over 450,000 votes in that election. The electorate is completely different.


If anything, it would be better to compare this to 2014. There were 369,000 voters in that electorate. There were 376,000 voters last night.

Steve Daines   Amanda Curtis   
Party   Republican   Democratic
Popular vote   210,863   145,601
Percentage   57.9%   40.0%

VS.

Greg Gianforte
Rep.
189,473   50.2%   
Rob Quist
Dem.
166,483   44.1   
Mark Wicks
Lib.
21,509   5.7   

The RATS gained only 4 points while the conservative libertarian peeled off almost 6% from the Republicans.