MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Hammy]

If Gianforte wins it, it will be big surprise, the guy just assaulted a reporter , I don't care if it's Montana or Alabama or somewhere even more red if it's possible, if he pulls it off that would show how much people just dispise the other side.

The problem is people do despise the other side that much.

[Hammy]

Honestly, what on earth led people here to think the Dems could win this? This thread has been utterly facepalm worthy on a daily basis.

[Hammy]

Also, calling the race at this point would be...uh... a very bad idea.

Any reason? I called it yesterday for Gianforte after slamgate happened.

[Hammy]

Why do Democrats keep saying this about seats they lose by a whisker (MT, KS-4)?

Huge margin shifts in such a short time can't be discounted.

[Hammy]

Beet, your posts are bad.

I'm allowed to blow off a little steam after being browbeat for 7 months over how any Democrat but Clinton would have wiped the board. Bernie woulda won. Biden woulda won. Obama woulda won. O'Malley woulda won. It was a rejection of HER. She wasn't far left enough. yada yada yada nonstop.

Those assertions are correct (except O'Malley who is utterly awful) and seeing a Berniecrat lose Montana (a state Sanders himself would've very likely lost) is not evidence to the contrary.

[Hammy]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

But the swing can tell us a lot, if you average them.

This is how I've been looking at. We've had a bunch of safe R seats so far, but they've all been to the left of the presidential and congressional elections just six months ago. That definitely means something as far as the general image of Trump to the electorate.

[Hammy]

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

Didn't Coakley run an unusually terrible campaign though?

[Hammy]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

You know, this is a R+11 district, and the only district in the country more Republican than R+5 with a Democrat has one who endorsed Bernie in the primary?

But what happened to the "most popular politician in America" and his legendary appeal to WWC? I'll concede that Montana is not the best place to test that theory, but it looks like his popularity among that demographic doesn't translate into votes for candidates of his mold.

Sanders has WWC appeal. But Montana is not the Rust Belt. While I think Sanders would've been a better candidate (and would've won) don't take that to mean his supporters think he would've won huge margins in every state--but he certainly wouldn't have lost the "firewall" states that Clinton lost, and would've made one or two pickups. And that said there are places where Berniecrats would definately do better than 'standard' Dems, and those places are not the rural west.

[Hammy]

Based on what MT SOS says is fully reporting:

This more than anything is what we need to look at. Too many people are focusing on whether or not Dems should've won places Dems are never going to win, rather than looking at how voting changed vs the last election.

[Hammy]

F**k, it's gonna be a 10+ margin isn't it?

I've thought since yesterday the bodyslam would double Gianforte's margin and that seems to be the case.

[Hammy]

At this rate it would end up 10% odd, still an improvement over the 20% but clearly not good enough !

Tester has got a tough race in 2018! And lol @ people thinking this will hurt Gianforte, Republicans get a big boost out an assault ! If Trump assaults a CNN or NBC reporter, his ratings will probably move on !

Keep in mind what this means though, if Dems can keep it up anyway, for those seats that fell to the GOP with less than 10-point margins.

[Hammy]

There's still GA-06, where I see the chances for Ossoff as high as never before ...

KS and MT were simply too Trumpist.

You're in for a terribly depressing night next month if you think Ossoff is going to get more than 48%.

[Hammy]

There's still GA-06, where I see the chances for Ossoff as high as never before ...

KS and MT were simply too Trumpist.

You're in for a terribly depressing night if you think Ossoff is going to win.

Well, of course he might lose.

But under the circumstances he's a strong fit for this district and Handel is a rather weak candidate.

I'm currently about 80-85% sure he'll win.

I'm not putting it at "might", I'm guaranteeing he won't get more than say 48.5%

[Hammy]

Sorry for the dublicate posts everyone, I was having wifi troubles.

Are you sure it's not the site? I've been having a hell of a wait time posting the last hour or so

[Hammy]

This is a horrifying result no matter how you slice it.

Something has gone horribly wrong in American politics, and I don't think it's going to get fixed any time soon.

Things were never right in American politics to start with.