MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Badger]

I hope Curtis wins the primary, she seems like the most formidable Democrat in the field.

Republicans hope she wins too. Just sayin'

[Badger]

Looking forward to the Gianforte landslide!!!!

If you define a landslide as 1-5 points while getting 48-49% of the vote, go ahead.

If Democrat newspapers are endorsing Gianforte, he probably has a good shot at a 10 point or 12 point win, and that's big for MT in non-presidential races.

Newspaper endorsements do not matter.

They do in Les prominent races than the presidency, and it includes an at-large congressional seat where 99.99 percent of Voters are not Atlas level absorbed in politics. No, it's not the wide opinion shaker headed in newspaper endorsement used to be comma but when Quest is running several points down and trying to gain momentum and appear to be a serious candidate rather than just a well-meaning hippie with a banjo comma these type of endorsements will not help him with currently undecided voters in other Media Markt. And in a race anticipated to be very close, that ain't good.

[Badger]

Stay classy Montana

[Badger]

Gianforte is rolling! Or should I say....Slamming!

Stay Get classy, Krazen.

[Badger]

Now I'm upset I changed my prediction to 49-47 instead of sticking with 52-45. The lesson tonight: Beet is too optimistic. Need to increase my pessimism.

Are you trying to entertain people here?

No, why? Although it would be nice if the people constantly attacking me and accusing me of all kinds of BS apologized instead and recognized me as one of the smarter posters on here. But that will never happen.

Oh Lordie, Beet. You're a good guy, albeit kinda weird lately, but get over yourself.

[Badger]

Let's be honest. "Law and order" types are only "law and order" types because they don't want black/brown skinned people living near them or their families.

White guy body slams someone and he's a rebel.

Totally true.

[Badger]

Can the House deny Gianforte if they find reason (the assault is the obvious one)?

Ryan can, but probably won't.

Hell no. He can hold Piano Man's balls to the fire to extract whatever votes he needs.

[Badger]

LOL someone is triggered, my posts are getting deleted.

Honestly, that's probably good for the quality of this forum. You always predict the very worst to happen to yourself and your party, pretend it never happened when you're wrong, and on the occasions that you're right obsessively demand apologies from people who call you out for your behavior and claim you're one of the smartest posters here. It gets very tiring to deal with very quickly.

When did I pretend it never happened? I freely admit when I am wrong. I was wrong about France. But people on here act like I am always wrong, and keep bringing up ebola and Fukushima as if I'm some crazed idiot, and never mention my correct analysis which is often years ahead of time.

Jesus, AGAIN, get OVER yourself, Beet.

[Badger]

btw lol


News director of NBC affiliate in MT referred to @Benjacobs -Guardian as "politically biased publication" - rejected coverage
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/05/montana-nbc-affiliate-refused-to-cover-gianforte-body-slam.html

A newly acquired Sinclair Communications affiliate, folks.

[Badger]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Maybe cause they knew it really wasn't winnable?

Bullock won the state against Gianforte as Clinton lost by 20 points. Jon Tester got elected twice here.

1) Those two are more moderate than Quist

2) The media markets aren't even comparable

3) Hillary did better in GA-6 than MT-AL by about eighty miles.

Not every seat deserves equal funding. Sorry. Georgia-6 was always, always more winnable than MT-AL.

Why do Democrats keep saying this about seats they lose by a whisker (MT, KS-4)?

[Badger]

Also, calling the race at this point would be...uh... a very bad idea.

Why not? Serious question for the local guy considering it appears to this midwesterner that Piano Man's got this.

[Badger]

Greg Gianforte (Republican)    49.9%   119,188
Rob Quist (Democratic)    44.3%   105,796
Mark Wicks (Libertarian)    5.7%   13,655

GG +5.6% over RQ

What % in?

[Badger]

Why do Democrats keep saying this about seats they lose by a whisker (MT, KS-4)?

Huge margin shifts in such a short time can't be discounted.

There were rumblings on the ground for a month before the KS 4 vote. I was reading stories in the national media about the race being unexpectedly competitive weeks beforehand.  MT was predicted to be competitive for months. To the supposed professionals at the DNCC who had only a handful of races to watch, this wasn't exactly crystal ball or reading tea leaves territory.

[Badger]

Guys, remember quist isn't exactly prince charming here. Yea, he didn't assault anyone, but he has some major sketchy background issues. It probably turned a lot of potential voters away.

True dat.

[Badger]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Yeah, Beet is a chicken little. But he is right about this, D's need to kick Bernie to curb. His message just translate to any electoral success.

Coming within 4-5% in Montana with a flawed candidate ain't so bad (granted, Trump and Assaultforte helped).

[Badger]

Drudge and RRH called for Gianforte!

wtf does drudge know about forecasting?

He had trump winning va on election night 2016 with that stupid asterisk.

Two posts in a row I totally agree with Marty.

Wha?  

[Badger]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

Not with current gerrymandering, IMHO.

[Badger]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

The Crow tribe endorsed the GOP candidate for the first time in a long time because the tribal economy is dependent on coal (and like, Quist's staff must have taken them for granted or something)

Ah-ha! FINALLY an answer to the mystery that's been nagging me (and others) all night. Thank you!

[Badger]

Did Quist do something to piss off the people of Big Horn County?  

Native American turnout must have plummeted like Robenson County NC in 2016.

The Crow tribe endorsed the GOP candidate for the first time in a long time because the tribal economy is dependent on coal (and like, Quist's staff must have taken them for granted or something)

But they endorsed Clinton last year - not exactly a friend of coal.

That is an interesting point. Wonder why the switch?

At any rate, it unquestionably has to do with Quist's piss-poor showing in Big Horn.

[Badger]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

I've known people are terrible since I was a kid. White Americans have been up to now, and even now, better than most people. You guys elected a N_g__ president. How many countries would that happen? Even Sonia Gandhi had to step down in 2004. You haven't seen Chinese people. Their nationalism is off the charts. But I've always known that the masses are not decent, anywhere.

That's why it's always bothered me that for the past 14 years, since Howard Dean's campaign in 2003, you've always had "progressives" -- whether it was Markos or Thomas Frank back in the day, or Sanders more recently -- attack the Democrats for being too moderate and compromising when they should just "stand up for their values." "I'd rather someone who says what they thinks, even if they lose," they always say. If I stood up for my values I'd be crushed. I've known that since I was 13 years old. That's what I think. I think Bill Clinton knew that too, which is why he did what he did. I feel sorry that so many hate him now. The only thing we can hope for is half a loaf of bread and gradual, incremental change.

Beet--- have you been drinking excessive quantities of Hard A???

Last time I partied in DC back in something like '03, somewhere around the DuPont Circle Neighborhood, it seemed that the bars closed at 3 AM.

Although we are on very different sides when it comes to the past, present, and future of the Democratic Party, it sounds like you are slightly *on tilt* at the moment (Old Texas Hold 'Em/ Poker Expression). Honestly reading this previous post of yours made very little sense at all, even trying to look at it from an objective perspective.

Seriously man, sleep it off.