MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Skill and Chance]

I'm far more hopeful about this race than GA-06.

Why? Montana swung 6 points to the right in 2016 giving Trump a 20 point win while GA-06 swung 21 points to the left, with Trump winning only by 1.5%. I realize that Democrats have won statewide in Montana many times and even just last election, but fighting the fundamentals of the state seems harder than in an individual district that trended largely in the positive direction.

He's basically the perfect candidate for the state and Montana Dems have had a very resilient Blue Dog streak through the Obama era and still managed multiple statewide wins.  Downballot Dem strength in MT can't be called a fluke anymore after Bullock cleared 50% running with Trump last November, and unlike in WV, they didn't have to practically run a 3rd party campaign to do it.  Gianforte is still favored, no doubt, but with Quist, Democratic odds just rose to 20-25% here.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats have always done badly at the presidential level in Montana but well at the Congressional level. This is more true with the Senate than that House, but there's no reason why it needs to be.

Montana is IMO a lot more interesting than WV.  LBJ was the last Dem nominee to win a majority there and yet the senate seat currently occupied by Steve Daines was held by Democrats for over a century.  The Tester seat was held by Republicans for only 2 terms in the past century.  The state has also only ever had a handful of Republican governors, and yet this was all while Republicans were winning presidential elections there for 50 years, save for a 38% Clinton win in 1992!

[Skill and Chance]

Quist is precisely the kind of Democrat who can win in Montana, so I really hope he wins. I'd be curious to see how this could effect the GA-6 race, since that runoff will happen a few weeks after this election.

If Quist wins, are Democrats going to be energized and feel they can win in GA, or will Republicans panic and invest heavily in GA-6 in order to save face?

I think more reps panic but it could go the other way

Losing a statewide race in a rural 85%+ white state that swung massively to Trump would and should be a lot scarier for Republicans than losing GA-06.  The latter could just be a situation where the incumbent party is on demographic borrowed time without national implications.

[Skill and Chance]

can someone sum up this race now that it's March 6?  

Well, yesterday the Democrats chose Rob Quist (somewhat famous songwriter, singer and guitarist) to be their nominee for the special election. Today the Republicans will chose their nominee at the convention, it looks like it will be Greg Gianforte (businessman and candidate for governor in 2016). The general election should be quite competitive, this is definitely a race to watch.

The special election will be held on May 25.

The Republican SuperPACs are definitely treating Quist like someone with a 30% chance, not someone with a 3% chance.  It surprises me that they would tip their hands this early.

[Skill and Chance]

MT in your opinion is the reason you think Quist could win is Gianforte comes off as a bit phony an just wanting this seat to pad his resume for another shot at Bullock? Cause he kinda rubs me that way an I want to see if that is a general prescription

IMO, his problems are:

1. Technocratic software executive with CA and NJ connections running in a very rural, populist state.
2. Too socially conservative for the Mountain West.

Quist vs. Gianforte is basically a test case of what Democratic Trump vs. Republican Clinton would look like.

[Skill and Chance]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

[Skill and Chance]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

Tester already has a significant advantage.

Yeah, if Tester goes down, this is a 2002 style minor R wave.

[Skill and Chance]

That would probably require a Democratic governor to get elected in 2020, because in the hypothetical scenario of Montana getting a second district, a Republican could just force him out East and draw a new Western district. I'm skeptical of a Democrat keeping the mansion for 20 straight years, and assuming Bullock challenges Daines and Quist is still in office, that'd be asking to send 2 Democrats to Washington and 1 to Helena. That's a tough sell to a state that voted for Trump by 20%.

Congressmen don't technically need to live in the district they represent, just the state.  And he could always move into the new district, anyway. 

I suppose that a Republican could gerrymander two clear Republican-leaning districts, though.  But the power of incumbency is sometimes stronger than district lines, anyway.

Montana actually has an independent redistricting commission by constitutional amendment, so a clean east-west split is basically assured if the state ever gets MT-02 back.  I think an all western MT-02 would reliably go for someone like Quist and be competitive between the parties in general.

[Skill and Chance]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

[Skill and Chance]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

Agreed. Montana is the last of the four rural Rocky Mountain states (ID, MT, UT, WY) that the Democrats have any shot at. And that shot is slowly disappearing. It's now or never.

None of those states are majority rural. Utah is 90.6% urban.

The census bureau definitions include counties that are ridiculously far from the city center in the MSA for rural/urban purposes.  Charlottesville, VA is in the Washington, DC MSA for example.  Utah is almost as dominated by one major urban center as Nevada is, but the other 3 states on that list are clearly considered rural in American culture.

[Skill and Chance]

Story being reported in the Billings Gazette and the Missoulian about Quist's financial situation

Unclear how this will play out, since Quist seems fairly unapologetic and up front about having money struggles.

If Trump repeatedly refusing to pay his contractors wasn't an issue last year, I can't see attacks based in part on someone's medical debt resonating.  If anything, it would reinforce the Romney-like stereotype Gianforte needs to get away from.  If there is eventually financial fraud at the bottom of this, that would be a different story, but for the time being this could easily backfire.

[Skill and Chance]

If Quist wins or just comes closer than Ossoff, that will have profound implications for the Bernie strategy vs. the Clinton strategy, particularly if KS-04 ends up closer than GA-06.  In other words, if Ossoff actually is mired in the 30's, it should be taken as an early indication Clinton's massive overperformance in the Sunbelt suburbs was a one-time thing.  The KS and MT races being close would suggest it is possible to get enough rural voters back.

[Skill and Chance]

In other words, if Ossoff actually is mired in the 30's, it should be taken as an early indication Clinton's massive overperformance in the Sunbelt suburbs was a one-time thing.  The KS and MT races being close would suggest it is possible to get enough rural voters back.

Is that really a fair assumption? Montana has been more friendly overall to Democrats than GA-6 - it's not like this is a new thing. It may be the case that certain suburban areas need more time to develop. It's not like various districts immediately start voting the same way for downballot offices as they do for president, and it may even take a couple years of Trump screwing up to finally cause a loss of confidence in the party as a whole and not just Trump.

The best targets under Trump specifically, so for 2018 and 2020, would seem to be districts/states filled with people who dislike/disapprove of him most. In terms of GOP-held targets, those are college educated white voters, with a few exceptions. It doesn't mean it'll be like that forever, but they are the most ripe to turn on Republicans at least temporarily.

Let's put aside various trends for right now - if not suburbs, then what districts? Where is the path back to a house majority for Democrats without them?

None of us know yet, but the Dems have to decide by 2019 at the latest between two mutually exclusive ways to campaign in 2020.  The (cumulative) results of these specials and the 2018 results should help them decide.

If they go the countryside route, they would have the most long term trouble in the House, flipping it in 2022 at the earliest, but it could do wonders in the Senate and EC.  If they go the inner suburbs route, they will get the House next year if Trump remains at all unpopular, but will have an even bigger Senate and EC problem going forward.

[Skill and Chance]

And here is the first and last "official" debate between the three candidates

I actually watched the entire thing for some reason. Not that these debates really matter, but I thought it was a very underwhelming performance by Quist (he dodged a lot questions and kept repeating his usual "But Russia" and "But millionayhs" talking points, etc.). Remember when he sounded like a dove?

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he sounded pretty authentic for the most past, especially at the end.

Quist certainly isn't living up to the hype he has been getting here.  I no longer think this will be close.  Ambitious MT Dems should probably hold out for the chance of an MT-02 to run in come 2022.  The redistricting commission constitutional amendment would basically ensure an all western MT seat would be created.

[Skill and Chance]

New poll from Senate Majority PAC (D):

Gianforte - 49%
Quist - 43%
Undecided - 8%

Among "Enthusiastic Voters":
Gianforte - 48%
Quist - 47%
Undecided - 5%

Poll conducted over April 25-27.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/quist-gianforte-montana-poll

Hmmm... given that this is pre-health care bill passing the House, this seat could still be competitive, but that is definitely bad for Quist in a Dem internal.

[Skill and Chance]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

Late April so pre-AHCA vote, but it will take a lot to put Quist over the line.

[Skill and Chance]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

Non-violent scandals may simply not matter anymore.  We'll see.

[Skill and Chance]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

Eh, Pianoforte has been attacked pretty relentlessly as well. Also, this stuff is nothing that would sink a campaign. Honestly, I don't know any Republican from here who is taking this race for granted or who believes that Republicans have this in the bag.

National Republicans are now pouring late cash into the race:

Anyway: A Republican-friendly group is rushing a last-minute $200,000 ad buy onto the Montana airwaves

To clarify, I would say there is a 20ish% chance he could win, but if it does it would mean that the national environment at the moment is as good for Dems as the early 1930's.  Actually, 1866 with the parties reversed would a better comparison as that was much more about presidential scandals/incompetence and less about the economy.

But I'm not convinced we're there and Dems now have quite a history of getting too cocky about Trump backlash.

[Skill and Chance]

Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

[Skill and Chance]

Starting to think this might actually happen for Quist now.  The timing is just perfect for him in terms of national news (Russia revelations+AHCA CBO scoring).

Three days ago you said that Quist was basically toast, that he would need a "New Deal-style Democratic wave" to win and that it would be "the early 1930s" or "1866 with the parties reversed all over again" if he somehow won. I love how Atlas is overreacting to this when the race was never going to be an easy win for the GOP.

-Shrug- I've been watching from the sidelines and waiting. What do you think will happen? I remember asking you something around these lines in another thread, but you probably didn't see it.

I have substantially upped the probability that we could be in a serious Dem wave environment not far off from those years.  No telling if it holds to 2018, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?

Pretty sure there will be a huge dump of votes 15 minutes after poll closing time or so. FWIW, this is what the results of MT-GOV 2016 looked like with "4% of the precincts" in (in fact, 27% of the vote had already been counted):

Bullock (D) - 55% - 75,579
Gianforte (R) - 42% - 58,291
Dunlap (L) - 3% - 3,957 

Link.

So the MT early vote favors Dems, but not by the insane margins that it favors them in the South?

[Skill and Chance]

A Bob Etheridge moment?

[Skill and Chance]

I'm a bit skeptical about this. What kind of candidate in a potentially close election assaults a reporter the day before the election?

Bob Etheridge in NC-02 2010.  OK, it was a week or two before, but still.

[Skill and Chance]

Tough to see how this would actually change a mind.

It changed enough people's minds about Bob Etheridge, and his district wasn't even supposed to be competitive.