MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[windjammer]

So now I wonder who will run.

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Straw poll of MT Democrats shows close race, Quist leading Curtis by 7 votes

Grain of salt, but good news!

Too many undecided to be reliable.

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The dem isn't going to win lol

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Well, it's far from a given that Montana will gain that CD, right now it's really close in all the projections (but IIRC, they said that it's slightly more likely that it won't happen). If it does, Quist has that seat for as long as he wants it.

Unless Fox runs, I'd say Democrats are heavily favored in the 2020 gubernatorial race, so that's a problem. I wish heatcharger was right, but voters don't care how many Democrats there already are in Congress. If the GOP wants to stop Quist and Tester, 2018 will be their best and probably only opportunity. If they can't win either race next year, things will only get worse for them in 2020 IMO.

Fox is going to run. There is no way that he's not a favorite for this election.

[windjammer]

I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

Goddamn this party how can a group that made Obama president be so out of touch with the ground noise

To be fair, I'd be shocked if they don't jump in here by mid-to-late April/early May.  At least Quist seems to be winning so far.

To be honest, campaigning doesn't matter a lot. If they jump later, it wouldn't be catastrophic at all

[windjammer]

I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

Goddamn this party how can a group that made Obama president be so out of touch with the ground noise

To be fair, I'd be shocked if they don't jump in here by mid-to-late April/early May.  At least Quist seems to be winning so far.

To be honest, campaigning doesn't matter a lot. If they jump later, it wouldn't be catastrophic at all

All due respect, but you're objectively wrong about this (especially when we're talking about a state like Montana). 

Well, I maintain my words. The results of this election will be driven by the political climate at national elvel. He won't win or lose by spending 20 millions or 2 millions.

[windjammer]

Well,
Considering the investments I assume Quist is trailing by 5 right now.
I never expected him to win, so a close result or even a victory would be a good surprise.

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I feel good in my +7 gianforte prediction.

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Where did the moderate Republicans go?

I grew up as a moderate Republican.  The party left us behind long ago.

Same here. Those days are longgggg gone

I mean you are college educated young , difficult to find appealing for you an old WWC party

[windjammer]

Updating my prediction following Trump's recent scandals:
Gianforte +4

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Too late

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Too late

I don't know, a third of the electorate is still a lot and those folks tend to be undecideds.

But how many of them will know about this?

[windjammer]

Is there a reason why Quist is collapsing on PredictIt?

People realizing GG's aggressive behaviour won't kill his campaign?

[windjammer]

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.