NH-GOV 2018: Molly Kelly (D) running

[MT Treasurer]

Now that the 2016 race is over

Does anyone know which Democrats are interested in a run?

[MT Treasurer]

Does NH have gubernatorial elections every 2 years or what?

Yeah, NH and VT are the only states that hold gubernatorial elections every 2 years.

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Idiocy - pure and simple. ALL fedreal races were very close this year in NH. Republicans control legislature. And after all that "republican label is unacceptable"? I had very good laugh. Continue to make such statements and you will have excellent chances to become good comic...

Sununu won by a very underwhelming margin against a very bad opponent. Republicans have real trouble winning statewide or federal races in NH, especially when you compare it with how well they do in gubernatorial races (and sometimes even Congressional races) in all the other New England states. I also think Ayotte would have beaten Hassan had she run in Maine, but maybe that's debatable.  

If NH really was such a competitive bellwether state, Trump and Ayotte wouldn't have lost it. So yeah, while NH did trend a bit Republican this year, I fully expect the state to trend even more away from the GOP in the coming years. The Democratic floor there is ridiculously high.

[MT Treasurer]

Good that reasonable Republicans, not voting for idiotic legislation, and having their own (distinct from party leadership) opinion on isuues still exist. AFAIK - there are similar Democrats too....

I think they were terribly afraid of the backlash they would cause with it. NH is a solidly liberal state when it comes to issues like abortion, unions, gay marriage, pot, workers rights etc. It's why Republicans like Sununu basically have to govern like very liberal Republicans/"Democrats lite" in order for them to even stand a small chance of winning reelection in 2018. Scott, Baker and Hogan seem to be much better at this than Sununu, though.

The ultra conservative NH of the 80s is long gone, and Sununu needs to realize this ASAP.

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu approval: 42/13 (+29)

Shaheen favorability: 50/32 (+18)
Hassan favorability: 47/36 (+11)
Shea-Porter favorability: 36/29 (+7)
Kuster favorability: 36/28 (+8)

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_govapp21517.pdf

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_congapp21617.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

*bump*

Sununu confirms he’s running for re-election in 2018

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He also said that he will never run for Senate

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Let's hope he doesn't change his mind.

Also: According to Morning Consult, Trump is more unpopular in New Hampshire (-19%) than he is in Pennsylvania (-6%), Nevada (-8%), Maine (-10%), New Mexico (-10%), Virginia (-11%), Wisconsin (-12%), Colorado (-13%), Michigan (-15%), Minnesota (-17%), and even Oregon (-18%).

[MT Treasurer]

New UNH/WMUR poll:

Shaheen (D) approval: 56/26 (+30) (+45 among females, +14 among males)
Hassan (D) approval: 50/29 (+21) (+35 among females, +6 among males)
Shea-Porter (D) approval: 38/27 (+11) (+22 among females, +2 among males)
Kuster (D) approval: 37/23 (+14) (+22 among females, +4 among males)

Link.

[MT Treasurer]

http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-former-state-sen-molly-kelly-encouraged-to-considers-run-for-governor/17149199

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Excellent news!

[MT Treasurer]

What is your honest, most objective opinion on NH-Gov?

Looking at Sununu, I keep getting the feeling that he is on track to be another Baker-type, not necessarily anything to do with his ideology, but being unbeatable even when the environment is very unfavorable. I don't think he's there yet, but I can't help but think that he has potential to be if Democrats don't dislodge him this year. I'd be very sad if that turned out to be true, because I hate his smug grin and the fact that one of his first actions as Governor was to "tighten up" election rules, aka make it harder for Democrats to vote under the guise of BUSSES OF ILLEGAL VOTERS FROM MASSACHUSETTS!

Are you implying that my posts about NH generally aren’t objective? I’ll admit that I’d love to see Sununu lose to Molly Kelly or whoever they put up because I don’t want him to run for Senate against Shaheen or Hassan (contrary to what all the “experts” think, he’d never manage to win a federal race in NH, but I’m sure the incompetent NRSC would waste an unbelievably large amount of resources there anyway, hurting other Republicans across the country in the process, including in my state). The fact that I don’t consider him some unbeatable juggernaut has nothing at all to do with my hatred of the state or any preconceived opinions and/or attitudes I might have. I’d be absolutely shocked if Sununu managed to replicate Baker’s success — keep in mind that their last Republican governor was voted out of office in a GOP wave year (2004), and even in 2016, Sununu only managed to eke out a narrow victory in spite of the R-friendly national environment, his name recognition and his weak opponent. As far as his ideology and personality are concerned, yeah, I’m pretty much with you on this one. Apparently he’s taken several steps to combat animal cruelty, but that’s about the only good thing there is to say about him or his smug supporters.

Even if you deny that NH has any inherent Democratic tilt whatsoever and believe that it’s an elastic swing/Tossup state susceptive to wild swings, wouldn’t that still make Sununu at least somewhat vulnerable given that 2018 is shaping up to be quite favorable for Dems? I still remember all the hype around “GOP rising star” Kelly Ayotte (who you might remember was considered a stronger candidate than Johnson/Toomey/etc. who could definitely survive a slight/modest Clinton victory, making NH THE bellwether state not only in the presidential race but also in the race for control of the Senate), and we all know how that turned out. Obviously this is a gubernatorial and not a federal race and I won’t rate it Safe D after I underestimated Sununu in 2016 (Likely D seems like an appropriate rating for now, tbh), but I can’t help but think that Sununu is as overrated as Ayotte — sure, he could keep it close, but the road is littered with supposedly “strong” Republican candidates who looked unbeatable at some point but were swept away in a Democratic or even neutral year because they just couldn’t overcome their state’s strong and/or stubborn Democratic lean. I think we’ll see basically the same here.