NH-GOV 2018: Molly Kelly (D) running

[Virginiá]

Idiocy - pure and simple. ALL fedreal races were very close this year in NH. Republicans control legislature. And after all that "republican label is unacceptable"? I had very good laugh. Continue to make such statements and you will have excellent chances to become good comic...

Even more than that. A little better performance by NH Democrats this year and we could instead be looking at a Democratic state government instead. Sununu barely won, and there were enough enough GOP-won state senate races within 4 points to flip the chamber. I'm sure a similarly better tide could have paid dividends in the house too.

My bet is that TNVol is going to feel quite vindicated by Nov 2020, but probably sooner.

[Virginiá]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

Who said that a state with Republican trifecta is turning into safe D? All Democratic victories in 2016 were very narrow, and, in some cases (Guinta) - against very flawed opponents..

Meh, I'd also like to chime in that many GOP victories in NH were narrow as well. I believe there were like 3 State Senate races where the Republican only won by 4 or fewer points, and like 6 where it was <8 points. Their grip on power is pretty unstable, but Democrats don't really have any grip either. 2016 had a remarkable number of close races in NH.

But, with that, I'd say the GOP is pretty vulnerable in the legislature and maybe even Gov race in 2018. Probably won't even take national wave conditions to cost the GOP a chamber or two in NH with these kinds of numbers.

edit: ok noticed it was an old post but w/e

[Virginiá]

lol does this even matter? We'll have national RTW soon anyway

Not so long as it takes 8 Democrats to sign off on it. If Republicans find a way to do it without them (filibuster "reform"?), then Democrats can just as easily roll it back next time we have full control, even if that takes a while.

[Virginiá]

It turns out that Sununu's Education Dept appointee has donated money to a lawsuit against the state.

This is going to make a lot of NH women angry!

[Virginiá]

NH is an interesting case for 2018 imo. Last year, basically every statewide race and the 2 Congressional districts were won only by small margins, which fits with a relatively small amount of ticket splitting. Trump has real potential to drag down Republicans in NH. The state has been trending Democratic since the early 90s, so that means Republicans have 3 things going against them in the Governor's race: (1) an incumbent whose performance was only marginally better than the top of the ticket, (2) a state which is already predisposed to leaning towards Democrats, and (3) an incumbent GOP president who is very unpopular - maybe not 20-ish% approval, but even 30s or low 40s is pretty bad.

However, we really need to wait and see what develops by next year. It's just too early to know if Sununu can develop his own brand and market himself in a way that detaches from Trump's all-encompassing presidential stench. I just think he has his work cut out for him.

One interesting thing about New Hampshire I think is being glossed over is the potential Democrats have for taking back the legislature. The state House is already swingy, but the state Senate has some real opportunities, and that is even factoring in a GOPmander. It's not hard to see Democrats sweeping the legislature next year if Trump is as unpopular as he is now.

[Virginiá]

And this reminds me of why I never want to directly work in politics:

http://www.unionleader.com/politics/sununu-says-he-will-turn-over-nh-voter-data-to-federal-fraud-commission-20170630

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Such blatant lies and hypocrisy.

This entire commission is nothing but a sham for Trump and Republicans to justify more voter suppression. No matter how many times they say their measures are to increase confidence in the elections, nothing will ever be enough. They will keep coming back with more suppression laws, crying about integrity and confidence when it is Republicans themselves who are ruining confidence in our elections. They are the ones screaming about fraud day-in, day-out, knowing full well they can't even prove it because it just isn't happening like they say it is. That is why they are shifting to the "confidence" and "integrity" narrative. They know they have no proof.

My one hope is that next time Democrats get a unified state govt in New Hampshire, they repeal whatever Republicans did during their time in power and put a constitutional amendment on the ballot enshrining the right to vote, thus making it legally difficult to pass laws restricting the right to vote in NH. I really don't understand why Democrats are not doing this in more states. Follow Illinois' example.

[Virginiá]

Bye-bye, Chris!

http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-democrat-molly-kelly-to-announce-run-for-governor/19724585

Enthusiastically endorsed!

What is your honest, most objective opinion on NH-Gov?

Looking at Sununu, I keep getting the feeling that he is on track to be another Baker-type, not necessarily anything to do with his ideology, but being unbeatable even when the environment is very unfavorable. I don't think he's there yet, but I can't help but think that he has potential to be if Democrats don't dislodge him this year. I'd be very sad if that turned out to be true, because I hate his smug grin and the fact that one of his first actions as Governor was to "tighten up" election rules, aka make it harder for Democrats to vote under the guise of BUSSES OF ILLEGAL VOTERS FROM MASSACHUSETTS!

[Virginiá]

Are you implying that my posts about NH generally aren’t objective?

[...]

I just don't know! :*

Thanks for your take!