The Generation Z vote (aka new voters)

[DPKdebator]

So, today I discovered this enormous poll/survey done in October of high school students across the country, and the results of it are quite shocking. Among the 50,000 surveyed as a whole, Trump has a 14% lead over Clinton, a margin that expands to 15% among first time voters. Whites have an especially strong showing for Trump. with a 37% lead (50% among white males), and, relative to the national vote, Clinton has somewhat low leads among minorities (40% among blacks, 19% among Hispanics, and 8% among Asians). Being a Generation Z-er, I can say that this poll is somewhat similar to trends I see among people my age- lots of us are conservatives (especially the whites and the males) that love Donald Trump (on a trip to Washington D.C. in June, my group spent the bus rides between attractions chanting our Trump support with such vigor we had to be told to stop). While polls are traditionally hard to give credit to, this one interviewed more than 50,000 high school students. Considering this demographic that was born starting in 2000 will first be able to vote in 2020 (for those born between 2000 and late 2002), how will their very conservative views, which are the most conservative since the Silent Generation, (especially considering most batches of new voters overwhelmingly vote Democrat) influence the 2020 election.


Here's a map showing the results of the study, by state. Note that for this, I filtered out people who said they wouldn't vote (including them results in a 283-84 Trump victory), which of course affects the results since their opinions are not reflected:



Also, here's an EV map showing the results of only white voters (again, "I won't vote" was filtered out). The pale sea-green in Utah is presumptively Evan McMullin (third party), who got around 29%, and the lime green in Vermont is for write-ins (almost certainly Bernie Sanders):


Grey represents a state with no respondents, which I excluded in the "overall voter" map and instead inferred the result based off other states.

[Hindsight was 2020]

What a shock generation 4chan/sh*tposting likes Trump but in all seriousness alot of these kids will mature and fallout of Trump love by 2020

[anthonyjg]

Probably a personality thing, at least that's my explanation for a poll that has Obama job approval at +16 and Trump over Clinton at +15.

[JustinTimeCuber]

I'm suspicious. South Carolina is Democrat but Illinois is Republican? Who are the subjects of these studies? It's an interesting idea but from the trends I don't see Gen Z being super conservative.

[DPKdebator]

I'm suspicious. South Carolina is Democrat but Illinois is Republican? Who are the subjects of these studies? It's an interesting idea but from the trends I don't see Gen Z being super conservative.

It probably all depends on who participated- perhaps in SC, a large proportion of black students participated, while in IL it could've been mostly rural downstaters who participated.

[Horus]

Probably a personality thing, at least that's my explanation for a poll that has Obama job approval at +16 and Trump over Clinton at +15.

That and tons of anger at Hillary and the Democratic party in general for the perceived injustices towards Bernie. There were more 18-22 year olds casting "revenge votes" than most realized.

[Sumner 1868]

Gen Raygun's kids being as right-wing as their parents isn't really surprising. They were never going to vote against Bush for the rest of their lives like Millennials.

[DPKdebator]

Gen Raygun's kids being as right-wing as their parents isn't really surprising. They were never going to vote against Bush for the rest of their lives like Millennials.

A lot of Gen Z-ers do not really remember Dubya's presidency (I don't, although I remember the hubbub about Obama in '08) because they were very young when he was president (the oldest were perhaps 8-10 when Obama was inaugurated) and thus do not really have personal feelings towards his administration.

[Saint Milei]

Generation Z can be described as what age right now? I feel like I'm in the middle between the Millennial generation and Generation Z. When Obama was inaugurated in 09, I was 12.

[Sumner 1868]

Gen Raygun's kids being as right-wing as their parents isn't really surprising. They were never going to vote against Bush for the rest of their lives like Millennials.

A lot of Gen Z-ers do not really remember Dubya's presidency (I don't, although I remember the hubbub about Obama in '08) because they were very young when he was president (the oldest were perhaps 8-10 when Obama was inaugurated) and thus do not really have personal feelings towards his administration.

That's what I was getting at.

[LLR]

I do find this odd - Obama is incredibly popular and has been the face of the Democrats since they were young. Hopefully this will reverse if we nominate a human being in 2020.

[JustinTimeCuber]

Hopefully this will reverse if we nominate a human being in 2020.

So Hil-la-ry Clin-ton is-n't hu-man?

[Kingpoleon]

Generation Z can be described as what age right now? I feel like I'm in the middle between the Millennial generation and Generation Z. When Obama was inaugurated in 09, I was 12.

Gen Z is anyone born in 2001 and after.

You're a late Millenial.

[Person Man]

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

[DPKdebator]

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

The results of my school election poll was 44 Clinton - 41 Trump (the older grades definitely tipped it to Crooked).

[The_Doctor]

I'd be interested to see how they vote. So far the millennial voters have been voting heavily Democratic since 2004 (2000 was a split). Generation Z would be an interesting break. We'll see in the '20 exit polls among 18-29.

[Figueira]

I am very, very skeptical of this. Is myCollegeOptions reputable?

[Person Man]

I am very, very skeptical of this. Is myCollegeOptions reputable?

[Person Man]

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

The results of my school election poll was 44 Clinton - 41 Trump (the older grades definitely tipped it to Crooked).

And the Scholastic polls were very Democratic this year.

[LLR]

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

The results of my school election poll was 44 Clinton - 41 Trump (the older grades definitely tipped it to Crooked).

And the Scholastic polls were very Democratic this year.

That's of children of all ages, though.

[Person Man]

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

The results of my school election poll was 44 Clinton - 41 Trump (the older grades definitely tipped it to Crooked).

And the Scholastic polls were very Democratic this year.

That's of children of all ages, though.

So, a lot of them are young Z people. If this next generation is Republican, its because of the altRight.

[LLR]

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

The results of my school election poll was 44 Clinton - 41 Trump (the older grades definitely tipped it to Crooked).

And the Scholastic polls were very Democratic this year.

That's of children of all ages, though.

So, a lot of them are young Z people. If this next generation is Republican, its because of the altRight.

Nah I blame Pepe the Frog

[The_Doctor]

Before we jump to conclusions, we need to see basically the 2020 exit polls and see if these people are actually becoming more Republican. Or the 2018 ones. It could be that a lot of high schoolers are Republicans and then vote Democratic in college and establish a Democratic pattern.

Also what's the history for this poll? Is it reputable?

[Person Man]

Before we jump to conclusions, we need to see basically the 2020 exit polls and see if these people are actually becoming more Republican. Or the 2018 ones. It could be that a lot of high schoolers are Republicans and then vote Democratic in college and establish a Democratic pattern.

Also what's the history for this poll? Is it reputable?

How many other 18-34 year olds flirted with Nationalism at age 16 and 17? There has always been a lot of what would become the alt-Right on Final Fantasy forums. In a way, Trump's election was my expirence between 2001 and 2003 coming back to remind me of the old days. I grew out of that crowd just before Pepe became a thing for anyone.

[The_Doctor]

Before we jump to conclusions, we need to see basically the 2020 exit polls and see if these people are actually becoming more Republican. Or the 2018 ones. It could be that a lot of high schoolers are Republicans and then vote Democratic in college and establish a Democratic pattern.

Also what's the history for this poll? Is it reputable?

How many other 18-34 year olds flirted with Nationalism at age 16 and 17? There has always been a lot of what would become the alt-Right on Final Fantasy forums. In a way, Trump's election was my expirence between 2001 and 2003 coming back to remind me of the old days. I grew out of that crowd just before Pepe became a thing for anyone.

I know nothing about their experiences honestly. I know that young white people were nowhere as radically Republican as this group. They voted 47-43% Trump which is a far cry from the Bush era. Obama also has a 44-30% approval rating in this group, which is interesting.