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| | |-+  The Generation Z vote (aka new voters)
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Author Topic: The Generation Z vote (aka new voters)  (Read 4200 times)
Mister Jellybean
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« Reply #25 on: December 23, 2016, 11:59:10 am »

Before we jump to conclusions, we need to see basically the 2020 exit polls and see if these people are actually becoming more Republican. Or the 2018 ones. It could be that a lot of high schoolers are Republicans and then vote Democratic in college and establish a Democratic pattern.

Also what's the history for this poll? Is it reputable?

How many other 18-34 year olds flirted with Nationalism at age 16 and 17? There has always been a lot of what would become the alt-Right on Final Fantasy forums. In a way, Trump's election was my expirence between 2001 and 2003 coming back to remind me of the old days. I grew out of that crowd just before Pepe became a thing for anyone.

I know nothing about their experiences honestly. I know that young white people were nowhere as radically Republican as this group. They voted 47-43% Trump which is a far cry from the Bush era. Obama also has a 44-30% approval rating in this group, which is interesting. 

Maybe they just hated Hillary.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #26 on: December 23, 2016, 01:40:10 pm »

It's a myth that young people are inherently more liberal.
Wisconsin 18-24 year olds voted 47-43 for Trump if exit poll is to be believed.
By contrary, whites in TX, GA are getting more democratic.

Young people have tendency to rebel against parents thoughts. Hispanic and black youngsters won't go overwhelmingly Democratic forever. And likewise, older people won't be the most conservative one forever.
It always changes and one part of the reasons is that people always want to hit a reset button after certain ideology is in the throne long enough.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #27 on: December 23, 2016, 01:47:09 pm »

At what age do kids even have any independent political opinions, separate from their parents?  I bet if you polled high school students throughout the past several decades, you'd find them usually being to the right of those aged 18-25, simply because many kids in high school will just regurgitate whatever their parents' political beliefs are, and parents with kids in the house are going to be more conservative than 20 year olds.  So I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove?
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« Reply #28 on: December 23, 2016, 04:39:34 pm »

At what age do kids even have any independent political opinions, separate from their parents?  I bet if you polled high school students throughout the past several decades, you'd find them usually being to the right of those aged 18-25, simply because many kids in high school will just regurgitate whatever their parents' political beliefs are, and parents with kids in the house are going to be more conservative than 20 year olds.  So I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove?

I used to be somewhat more liberal than I am now, though my support for Trump was formed independently ("hey, this guy has a point!") because he reflected my more conservative ideals. Generally, it's more so been me rubbing information off on other family members (i.e. swayed my dad towards Trump, although it's been harder to try and redpill my international family).
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Horus
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« Reply #29 on: December 23, 2016, 04:49:35 pm »

Also, the "not supporting any candidate" margin was huge in this poll. Basically, if you take this poll as fact, about 35-40% of Generation Zers supported Trump, and the rest were scattered between Hillary, third parties, and  not supporting any candidate. Had Bernie been the nominee, he'd wipe the floor with Trump in this generation. The youth is almost always anti-establishment, and Hillary was the definition of establishment.
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Mister Jellybean
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« Reply #30 on: December 23, 2016, 07:06:42 pm »

At what age do kids even have any independent political opinions, separate from their parents?  I bet if you polled high school students throughout the past several decades, you'd find them usually being to the right of those aged 18-25, simply because many kids in high school will just regurgitate whatever their parents' political beliefs are, and parents with kids in the house are going to be more conservative than 20 year olds.  So I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove?

I used to be somewhat more liberal than I am now, though my support for Trump was formed independently ("hey, this guy has a point!") because he reflected my more conservative ideals. Generally, it's more so been me rubbing information off on other family members (i.e. swayed my dad towards Trump, although it's been harder to try and redpill my international family).

Does redpill really help you get chicks?
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #31 on: December 23, 2016, 10:38:25 pm »

At what age do kids even have any independent political opinions, separate from their parents?  I bet if you polled high school students throughout the past several decades, you'd find them usually being to the right of those aged 18-25, simply because many kids in high school will just regurgitate whatever their parents' political beliefs are, and parents with kids in the house are going to be more conservative than 20 year olds.  So I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove?

I used to be somewhat more liberal than I am now, though my support for Trump was formed independently ("hey, this guy has a point!") because he reflected my more conservative ideals. Generally, it's more so been me rubbing information off on other family members (i.e. swayed my dad towards Trump, although it's been harder to try and redpill my international family).

Does redpill really help you get chicks?
I'm not sure... I haven't tried it yet Tongue
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Something between a Rockefeller Republican and a paleoconservative...

It is very important to preserve tradition, but if we wallow in it too much we will never move forward.

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« Reply #32 on: December 24, 2016, 12:40:14 am »

It's a myth that young people are inherently more liberal.
Wisconsin 18-24 year olds voted 47-43 for Trump if exit poll is to be believed.
By contrary, whites in TX, GA are getting more democratic.

Young people have tendency to rebel against parents thoughts. Hispanic and black youngsters won't go overwhelmingly Democratic forever. And likewise, older people won't be the most conservative one forever.
It always changes and one part of the reasons is that people always want to hit a reset button after certain ideology is in the throne long enough.
I saw an article that said that kids are rebeling against their parents by being conservative.

we had a Clinton Trump debate in one of my classes and the split was about 22-6 Trump-Hillary. All the Hillary supporters were female. This trend followed almost all other classes that had a debate, with overwhelming Trump support with a small cohort of more liberal woman who support Hillary. Gender gap trend iimcreases significantly.
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For almost 200 years, the policy of this Nation has been made under our Constitution by those leaders in the Congress and the White House elected by all of the people. If a vocal minority, however fervent its cause, prevails over reason and the will of the majority, this Nation has no future as a free society. - Richard Nixon
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« Reply #33 on: December 24, 2016, 01:16:03 am »

It's a myth that young people are inherently more liberal.
Wisconsin 18-24 year olds voted 47-43 for Trump if exit poll is to be believed.
By contrary, whites in TX, GA are getting more democratic.

Young people have tendency to rebel against parents thoughts. Hispanic and black youngsters won't go overwhelmingly Democratic forever. And likewise, older people won't be the most conservative one forever.
It always changes and one part of the reasons is that people always want to hit a reset button after certain ideology is in the throne long enough.
I saw an article that said that kids are rebeling against their parents by being conservative.

we had a Clinton Trump debate in one of my classes and the split was about 22-6 Trump-Hillary. All the Hillary supporters were female. This trend followed almost all other classes that had a debate, with overwhelming Trump support with a small cohort of more liberal woman who support Hillary. Gender gap trend iimcreases significantly.

I already debunked that British study. It had an incredibly low sample size. Also that article is pretty stupid.

I think you might be onto something with the gender gap, though.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #34 on: December 24, 2016, 11:49:34 am »

Well, that's certainly interesting. There's definitely plenty of "rumors" that this generation will be more conservative. Honestly, though, I think it's too early to tell for sure. Big events seemed poised to happen in between now and the next election, and these can definitely change people's political views.
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« Reply #35 on: December 24, 2016, 12:01:09 pm »

I thought this article was pretty interesting: http://www.macleans.ca/society/life/get-ready-for-generation-z/

Seems to indicate what I was saying above, some trends are more classically conservative, some more classically liberal. Maybe they can break those chains and come up with a new dichotomy.

Quote
Gen Z are bellwethers, says McCrindle: “Where Gen Z goes, our world goes.” What that portends is seismic social disruption and the commensurate anxiety.

Now THAT'S something that jives with my personal worldview, lol.
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Mister Jellybean
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« Reply #36 on: December 24, 2016, 05:43:36 pm »

I thought this article was pretty interesting: http://www.macleans.ca/society/life/get-ready-for-generation-z/

Seems to indicate what I was saying above, some trends are more classically conservative, some more classically liberal. Maybe they can break those chains and come up with a new dichotomy.

Quote
Gen Z are bellwethers, says McCrindle: “Where Gen Z goes, our world goes.” What that portends is seismic social disruption and the commensurate anxiety.

Now THAT'S something that jives with my personal worldview, lol.
Weren't Millenials thought to be conservative Evangelicals before 2008? They were supposed to help form a grandparent-grandchild  movement to check the excesses of the woodstock generation.

Though the topline of your article alludes to a libertarian generation.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 05:50:13 pm by Spicy Purrito »Logged

DPKdebator
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« Reply #37 on: December 26, 2016, 07:54:48 pm »

Generation Z is insanely liberal but that's because the goal posts of what makes somebody a liberal have changed

Old boomers think that gay marriage and universal health care are liberal issues while Generation Z thinks both are normal and okay. For Generation Z, truly liberal issues are weather or not there are things such as gender or weather or all drugs should be liberal.

Anyone who thinks Generation Z is conservative is too often comparing it to today's conservatives. Hell...by the time Generation Z is all grown up, they'll be arguing about weather or not there are 80 genders not about Roe Vs Wade

That would be torture... it's even more polarizing than abortion. People that like those types of people only argue "they have the right to choose", while those of us that oppose 100,000 genders think it's ridiculous and crazy that people make up so many labels (any argument about it usually devolves to "no, YOU'RE the obnoxious one!").
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Something between a Rockefeller Republican and a paleoconservative...

It is very important to preserve tradition, but if we wallow in it too much we will never move forward.

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Figueira
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« Reply #38 on: December 26, 2016, 09:36:14 pm »

Gender is a spectrum. There aren't a specific number of genders.
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« Reply #39 on: January 02, 2017, 06:06:40 pm »

Gender is a spectrum. There aren't a specific number of genders.
I think Figueira forgot to add /sarc
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Figueira
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« Reply #40 on: January 02, 2017, 06:12:52 pm »

Gender is a spectrum. There aren't a specific number of genders.
I think Figueira forgot to add /sarc


Nope, I'm not a transphobe parodying a reasonable person.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #41 on: January 02, 2017, 06:28:57 pm »

Gender is a spectrum. There aren't a specific number of genders.
I think Figueira forgot to add /sarc


Nope, I'm not a transphobe parodying a reasonable person.
So I can claim xyz as my gender?

After all, there are no specific number of genders...
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Libertarian temporarily rooting for the Dems until the GOP comes to its senses and purges itself of Trumpism.

Region Rat.  Libertarian.  ELCA Lutheran.  Juvenile Attorney for the State of Indiana.

Liberal on immigration and criminal justice reform.  Second Amendment supporter.  Free market solutions to climate change.  Proponent of alternative energy.  Open to a UBI.  School choice advocate.  Abolish the income tax and replace with a land-value tax.  Yeah, I'm an evil neoliberal shill.
Virginiá
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« Reply #42 on: January 02, 2017, 06:40:04 pm »

We'll see in the '20 exit polls among 18-29.

Exit polls for the 18-24 range would be optimal for this test. Depending on your view of generational ranges, it should have anywhere from 2-4 years worth genZ voters I imagine.

Given how Democratic 18-24 year olds were this year and in 2012, how diverse newer generations are and how completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal Trump is, one needs to forgive me when I say that I doubt GenZ voters are going to be majority Republican, and probably not even that much less Democratic than 18-24 year old Millennials now. Such a huge rightwards shift in the span of just 4~ years seems highly unlikely.
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Solopop
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« Reply #43 on: January 02, 2017, 06:51:33 pm »

Gender is a spectrum. There aren't a specific number of genders.
I think Figueira forgot to add /sarc


Nope, I'm not a transphobe parodying a reasonable person.
So I can claim xyz as my gender?

After all, there are no specific number of genders...


Gender is a social construct, sex is biological.
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Ljube
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« Reply #44 on: January 02, 2017, 07:04:34 pm »

We'll see in the '20 exit polls among 18-29.

Exit polls for the 18-24 range would be optimal for this test. Depending on your view of generational ranges, it should have anywhere from 2-4 years worth genZ voters I imagine.

Given how Democratic 18-24 year olds were this year and in 2012, how diverse newer generations are and how completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal Trump is, one needs to forgive me when I say that I doubt GenZ voters are going to be majority Republican, and probably not even that much less Democratic than 18-24 year old Millennials now. Such a huge rightwards shift in the span of just 4~ years seems highly unlikely.


Virginia, your error is in that you project everything through the prism of your positions and convictions, i.e. you distort everything.

For instance, what is the basis of your claim that Trump is completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal? We cannot say that in advance. All we can say now is that Trump is an exceptionally competent businessman and a political and marketing genius. That's undisputable and facts. All else are personal opinions without much basis in reality.
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Figueira
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« Reply #45 on: January 02, 2017, 07:13:21 pm »

Gender is a spectrum. There aren't a specific number of genders.
I think Figueira forgot to add /sarc


Nope, I'm not a transphobe parodying a reasonable person.
So I can claim xyz as my gender?

After all, there are no specific number of genders...


I mean, if that's how you feel, sure?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #46 on: January 02, 2017, 07:48:55 pm »

Generation Z is insanely liberal but that's because the goal posts of what makes somebody a liberal have changed

Old boomers think that gay marriage and universal health care are liberal issues while Generation Z thinks both are normal and okay. For Generation Z, truly liberal issues are weather or not there are things such as gender or weather or all drugs should be liberal.

Anyone who thinks Generation Z is conservative is too often comparing it to today's conservatives. Hell...by the time Generation Z is all grown up, they'll be arguing about weather or not there are 80 genders not about Roe Vs Wade

What remains to be seen are trades, immigration, abortion, death penalty and gun control.

I would not be surprised if Gen Z opposes trades and wants to restrict even legal immigration more than previous generations do. It's not just a matter of expanding the goal post. In the Philippines, younger people are more likely to support drug war.

As for gender identity, if it reaches the point of oversaturation, there will also be a war on transgender people as well at some point.

Nothing is permanent.
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anthony1691
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« Reply #47 on: January 02, 2017, 08:05:44 pm »

We'll see in the '20 exit polls among 18-29.

Exit polls for the 18-24 range would be optimal for this test. Depending on your view of generational ranges, it should have anywhere from 2-4 years worth genZ voters I imagine.

Given how Democratic 18-24 year olds were this year and in 2012, how diverse newer generations are and how completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal Trump is, one needs to forgive me when I say that I doubt GenZ voters are going to be majority Republican, and probably not even that much less Democratic than 18-24 year old Millennials now. Such a huge rightwards shift in the span of just 4~ years seems highly unlikely.


Virginia, your error is in that you project everything through the prism of your positions and convictions, i.e. you distort everything.

For instance, what is the basis of your claim that Trump is completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal? We cannot say that in advance. All we can say now is that Trump is an exceptionally competent businessman and a political and marketing genius. That's undisputable and facts. All else are personal opinions without much basis in reality.


But Trump isn't viewed by the general public as an exceptionally competent businessman, his favorability rating is historically bad. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that young people, who develop their political opinions under an unpopular President Trump, will lean Democratic.
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« Reply #48 on: January 02, 2017, 08:43:54 pm »

The Apprentice premiered in 2004. If you're in high school now, it's been on your whole remembered life. I doubt any of the other Republican candidates would have done nearly as well with high school students.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #49 on: January 02, 2017, 11:16:30 pm »

Virginia, your error is in that you project everything through the prism of your positions and convictions, i.e. you distort everything.

For instance, what is the basis of your claim that Trump is completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal? We cannot say that in advance. All we can say now is that Trump is an exceptionally competent businessman and a political and marketing genius. That's undisputable and facts. All else are personal opinions without much basis in reality.



Quote
The 289 People, Places and Things Donald
Trump Has Insulted on Twitter: A Complete List


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/28/upshot/donald-trump-twitter-insults.html






... and that's just what I felt like bringing up in the 2-3~ min. I decided was appropriate for this post.


-


This is the thing about you Ljube - consistently throughout this campaign you have been unable to even comprehend the idea that Trump may be an asshole, or a cheat, or whatever. The fact that you felt you even had standing to make that post, as if it was even debatable that Trump is a decent person, is a testament to how far in the crapper we already are and how difficult the next 4 years are going to be for people who are still connected to this reality.

That you can't even begin to acknowledge any of this makes me question just what kind of man you are.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 11:41:45 pm by Virginia »Logged



"I'm a whiner and I keep whining and whining until I win."
   – Donald J. Trump. August 11th, 2015.
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