The Generation Z vote (aka new voters)

[DPKdebator]

So, today I discovered this enormous poll/survey done in October of high school students across the country, and the results of it are quite shocking. Among the 50,000 surveyed as a whole, Trump has a 14% lead over Clinton, a margin that expands to 15% among first time voters. Whites have an especially strong showing for Trump. with a 37% lead (50% among white males), and, relative to the national vote, Clinton has somewhat low leads among minorities (40% among blacks, 19% among Hispanics, and 8% among Asians). Being a Generation Z-er, I can say that this poll is somewhat similar to trends I see among people my age- lots of us are conservatives (especially the whites and the males) that love Donald Trump (on a trip to Washington D.C. in June, my group spent the bus rides between attractions chanting our Trump support with such vigor we had to be told to stop). While polls are traditionally hard to give credit to, this one interviewed more than 50,000 high school students. Considering this demographic that was born starting in 2000 will first be able to vote in 2020 (for those born between 2000 and late 2002), how will their very conservative views, which are the most conservative since the Silent Generation, (especially considering most batches of new voters overwhelmingly vote Democrat) influence the 2020 election.


Here's a map showing the results of the study, by state. Note that for this, I filtered out people who said they wouldn't vote (including them results in a 283-84 Trump victory), which of course affects the results since their opinions are not reflected:



Also, here's an EV map showing the results of only white voters (again, "I won't vote" was filtered out). The pale sea-green in Utah is presumptively Evan McMullin (third party), who got around 29%, and the lime green in Vermont is for write-ins (almost certainly Bernie Sanders):


Grey represents a state with no respondents, which I excluded in the "overall voter" map and instead inferred the result based off other states.

[DPKdebator]

I'm suspicious. South Carolina is Democrat but Illinois is Republican? Who are the subjects of these studies? It's an interesting idea but from the trends I don't see Gen Z being super conservative.

It probably all depends on who participated- perhaps in SC, a large proportion of black students participated, while in IL it could've been mostly rural downstaters who participated.

[DPKdebator]

Gen Raygun's kids being as right-wing as their parents isn't really surprising. They were never going to vote against Bush for the rest of their lives like Millennials.

A lot of Gen Z-ers do not really remember Dubya's presidency (I don't, although I remember the hubbub about Obama in '08) because they were very young when he was president (the oldest were perhaps 8-10 when Obama was inaugurated) and thus do not really have personal feelings towards his administration.

[DPKdebator]

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

The results of my school election poll was 44 Clinton - 41 Trump (the older grades definitely tipped it to Crooked).

[DPKdebator]

At what age do kids even have any independent political opinions, separate from their parents?  I bet if you polled high school students throughout the past several decades, you'd find them usually being to the right of those aged 18-25, simply because many kids in high school will just regurgitate whatever their parents' political beliefs are, and parents with kids in the house are going to be more conservative than 20 year olds.  So I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove?

I used to be somewhat more liberal than I am now, though my support for Trump was formed independently ("hey, this guy has a point!") because he reflected my more conservative ideals. Generally, it's more so been me rubbing information off on other family members (i.e. swayed my dad towards Trump, although it's been harder to try and redpill my international family).

[DPKdebator]

At what age do kids even have any independent political opinions, separate from their parents?  I bet if you polled high school students throughout the past several decades, you'd find them usually being to the right of those aged 18-25, simply because many kids in high school will just regurgitate whatever their parents' political beliefs are, and parents with kids in the house are going to be more conservative than 20 year olds.  So I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove?

I used to be somewhat more liberal than I am now, though my support for Trump was formed independently ("hey, this guy has a point!") because he reflected my more conservative ideals. Generally, it's more so been me rubbing information off on other family members (i.e. swayed my dad towards Trump, although it's been harder to try and redpill my international family).

Does redpill really help you get chicks?

I'm not sure... I haven't tried it yet

[DPKdebator]

Generation Z is insanely liberal but that's because the goal posts of what makes somebody a liberal have changed

Old boomers think that gay marriage and universal health care are liberal issues while Generation Z thinks both are normal and okay. For Generation Z, truly liberal issues are weather or not there are things such as gender or weather or all drugs should be liberal.

Anyone who thinks Generation Z is conservative is too often comparing it to today's conservatives. Hell...by the time Generation Z is all grown up, they'll be arguing about weather or not there are 80 genders not about Roe Vs Wade

That would be torture... it's even more polarizing than abortion. People that like those types of people only argue "they have the right to choose", while those of us that oppose 100,000 genders think it's ridiculous and crazy that people make up so many labels (any argument about it usually devolves to "no, YOU'RE the obnoxious one!").