Ted Cruz (R) vs. Donald Trump (I)

[mencken]

How would an American analogue to the upcoming French 2017 election go?

[bagelman]

Trump is declared the winner after winning Indiana, as Cruz has no way of winning the election without it.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Mr. Donald J. Trump/U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard - 430 EV
Senator Ted Cruz/Governor Nikki Haley - 108 EV

[Kingpoleon]

312: Donald Trump/Scott Brown(People's) - 55.1%
226: Ted Cruz/Benjamin Sasse(Liberty) - 44.9%

[NHI]

Trump: 417 (56%)

Cruz: 121 (43%)

[Vosem]

Cruz wins, 275-263.

[bagelman]

Cruz wins, 275-263.

[Vosem]

Cruz wins, 275-263.

This is a general election scenario, though. I'd imagine liberal whites and Hispanics that didn't vote in the R primary break very heavily for Cruz over Trump. FL is very close, and in fact probably the decisive state, however.

[Pericles]

I'm not sure who the Democrats considered to be the lesser evil, and that would be key. Some thought Trump was less extreme and dangerous than Cruz. Others thought Cruz was less dangerous than Trump and disliked him slightly less. I, for one, would support Cruz as at least he had the basic fitness to be President and could be trusted with the nuclear codes and he was just a Republican who was a bit worse than most, while Trump was(and is) more dangerous.

[AGA]

Trump 345 EVs, 53% of PV
Cruz: 193 EVs, 44% of PV

Hispanics who did not participate in the Republican primary break for Cruz, giving him California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. Trump wins Maine because he would likely do better amongst Democrats there than Cruz.

[uti2]

Cruz wins, 275-263.

This is a general election scenario, though. I'd imagine liberal whites and Hispanics that didn't vote in the R primary break very heavily for Cruz over Trump. FL is very close, and in fact probably the decisive state, however.

You do realize Northern FL is the deep south and Southern FL is basically the NE with more Hispanics right? Liberal whites in South FL there are closer to Northeastern Whites than they are to Western Whites.

[uti2]

This is a general election scenario, though. I'd imagine liberal whites and Hispanics that didn't vote in the R primary break very heavily for Cruz over Trump. FL is very close, and in fact probably the decisive state, however.

By the way, Vosem, a question for you. There are very few young republicans to begin with, most youth are democratic and may gradually grow up to be republicans due to favoring lower-taxes, but guess what? Do you think the type of democrats who grow up into repubicans are more or less likely to be ideological conservatives? The answer is that they're less likely to be ideological conservatives and more likely to be populists, i.e. Bernie voters growing up into being moderate republican populists.

The tiny amount of young republicans/college republicans make up a small niche of the future republican party, because most of their compatriot future republicans are currently berniebros.