Texas in 2020

[Figueira]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

Texas was closer than either of those.

I generally agree that it's Likely R though. It will be interesting to see if the 2016 trend continues.

Barely closer

If 16 and 14 are barely more than 9, sure.

[Gabagool102]

Texas is Likely R. It will swing towards the Republicans in 2020.

[Ljube]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

[TDAS04]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

No they are not.

[Ljube]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

No they're not.

We'll see about that.

You were saying the same thing about MI, PA and WI.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

There is absolutely no indication either are competitive, and there is obviously no legitimate comparison to PA, WI and MI this year. I think Trump can win RI under certain circumstances, but it's highly unlikely and he didn't even receive 40% this year. CT is not the kind of blue state that Trump will win.

[Nyvin]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

[Gabagool102]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

Like I said, the demographic shift will be some-what reversed once Trump is in office. 

The wall, faster and higher rate of deportations and overall less immigration ETC.

[Nyvin]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

Like I said, the demographic shift will be some-what reversed once Trump is in office. 

The wall, faster and higher rate of deportations and overall less immigration ETC.

High Hopes.

The exact same trend that makes the Republicans more appealing in the Rust Belt is driving Texas away.   They're literally polar opposites. 

[Gabagool102]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

Like I said, the demographic shift will be some-what reversed once Trump is in office. 

The wall, faster and higher rate of deportations and overall less immigration ETC.

High Hopes.

The exact same trend that makes the Republicans more appealing in the Rust Belt is driving Texas away.   They're literally polar opposites. 

If you dont think that Immigration Laws and higher border security aren't going to happen in a Trump Presidency / Republican Congress I've got bad news for you. And no the only way Texas goes Democrat is in the 2030's when it becomes majority "Hispanic". Conservationism among Whites and some "white" Hispanics is still high in the state. 

[Nyvin]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

Like I said, the demographic shift will be some-what reversed once Trump is in office. 

The wall, faster and higher rate of deportations and overall less immigration ETC.

High Hopes.

The exact same trend that makes the Republicans more appealing in the Rust Belt is driving Texas away.   They're literally polar opposites. 

If you dont think that Immigration Laws and higher border security aren't going to happen in a Trump Presidency / Republican Congress I've got bad news for you. And no the only way Texas goes Democrat is in the 2030's when it becomes majority "Hispanic". Conservationism among Whites and some "white" Hispanics is still high in the state. 

A huge chunk of the Texas economy is trade with Mexico.   Being anti-immigrant isn't going to be as helpful in Texas as you think.   Also, yeah, rising hispanic population too.

I doubt it will flip in 2020 (like I said) but 2024 is certainly in the realm of possibilities.

[The_Doctor]

TX will probably be a tad more Republican in 2020 unless there's a blue wave inbound. The next Democratic win, though, I reiterate, Texas will be a blue state.

[Gabagool102]

TX will probably be a tad more Republican in 2020 unless there's a blue wave inbound. The next Democratic win, though, I reiterate, Texas will be a blue state.

I think you would be delusional to think that Texas won't be a more competitive state in the future, but even in 2028,2032 and 2036 it will be a toss up. It's gonna take a while for the state to be considered a lean D state.

[BaldEagle1991]

The only good things about Texas for Dems are no doubt the growing Hispanic and White white collar base in the state.

The only thing that's making it harder is its the only state where Evangelical Christianity is GROWING not shrinking.

[The_Doctor]

TX will probably be a tad more Republican in 2020 unless there's a blue wave inbound. The next Democratic win, though, I reiterate, Texas will be a blue state.

I think you would be delusional to think that Texas won't be a more competitive state in the future, but even in 2028,2032 and 2036 it will be a toss up. It's gonna take a while for the state to be considered a lean D state.

52-43%, with 18-29 and 30-44 voting Democratic. Doesn't take much to realize that as older whites die off, and younger whites vote less Republican than their elders, that states like Texas flip to the Democrats.

I agree there will need to be more than just a demographic shift, there will need to be an economic shift but there are a number of things on the horizon to suggest that the changing economy is to the Democrats' benefits.

[Saint Milei]

Lol Dems on this site are hilarious. No matter how much you stress TX trending, it's not happening. This "growth" you speak of has not impacted anything in TX. TX still remains R and will be for at least the next 25 years

[Virginiá]

Lol Dems on this site are hilarious. No matter how much you stress TX trending, it's not happening. This "growth" you speak of has not impacted anything in TX. TX still remains R and will be for at least the next 25 years

To be honest, and maybe I speak for at least one or two other people here, I'm just looking at the data and theories on various trends that I have formed in general and not just in relation to Texas, and it suggests some not-insignificant changes that could take place in or perhaps even during the next 15 years or so. That you find us "hilarious" because you have this unassailable view of TX's future political environment is really irrelevant and you just look like a smug dick for saying it. The sum of your posts might as well be "no! no! NO! no! TX = Republican! NO!"

[Saint Milei]

Lol Dems on this site are hilarious. No matter how much you stress TX trending, it's not happening. This "growth" you speak of has not impacted anything in TX. TX still remains R and will be for at least the next 25 years

To be honest, and maybe I speak for at least one or two other people here, I'm just looking at the data and theories on various trends that I have formed in general and not just in relation to Texas, and it suggests some not-insignificant changes that could take place in or perhaps even during the next 15 years or so. That you find us "hilarious" because you have this unassailable view of TX's future political environment is really irrelevant and you just look like a smug dick for saying it. The sum of your posts might as well be "no! no! NO! no! TX = Republican! NO!"

There is no indication or trend. How many Dem seats have been picked up locally by this "shift" recently? Abbott did better than Davis when it came to the Hispanic vote. Are you really suggesting that Republicans wont be able to win over hispanics by 2020 LMAO

[Virginiá]

There is no indication or trend. How many Dem seats have been picked up locally by this "shift" recently?

There is often a difference between trends at the presidential level and those at the state level. With your logic, there was certainly no way Virginia was trending Republican generations ago because Democrats had an iron grip on the legislature and state offices, which continued until the 90s, even as the state continued to vote for Republican presidents, election after election. Perhaps with increased polarization and straight ticket voting, this kind of trend would be weaker, but given the concentration of Democrats into urban centers, it would make sense for a lag to persist.

Are you really suggesting that Republicans wont be able to win over hispanics by 2020 LMAO

I really wasn't suggesting that. I actually made it clear that I wasn't. I mean I even gave a timeframe. Someone else said that, not me.

I do see favorable trends in Texas, but I don't think they would materialize that fast. While I think your view of all of this is really too superficial, my beef here was mainly you being a dick.

[SingingAnalyst]

In 2020, Trump by about the same margin as in 2016. In  2024, the Dems may have a chance to win TX in their winning bid.

[Virginiá]

I should probably respond since I was the one who implied that the GOP has long term problems that can't just be masked over by nominating a token Hispanic Republican.

I'd say so. I know they are different for numerous reasons, but at least according to CNN's EP, Murphy actually won FL Hispanics by 2 points. That's 12 points shy of Clinton's margin, but still pretty good all things considered. Minority tokenism from Republicans doesn't appear to work much at all on African Americans, either. The thing about presidential races is that it tends to bring a different set of issues into focus, and voters find out a lot more about the candidates. Lower office politicians get to hide behind a cloak of confusion about who they are and where they stand.

I might have actually just defered to DeadPrez's analysis had certain demographic voting patterns not been so stable:



Those kinds of patterns do not happen in safe R states that are projected to remain safe R in the future. Kentucky's youth is a large majority Republican. There is clearly a big change brewing, particularly due to the demographic changes of the state population. The majority of those margins among the youth are probably from larger portions of Hispanics who are more Democratic than their elders and whites who are still probably largely Republican but notably less so than older whites. This is, in my opinion, the manifestation of the demographic awakening in Texas people speak of. Hispanics are a young demographic, and it's going to take a while for them to gobble up more of the electorate. Their apathy towards voting slows things down as well.

In just 8 years, the white share of the TX electorate has decreased by something like 6%. Future years will probably see at least equal growth, which means +12 years is -9 white voters. That is enough to make Texas at least marginally competitive given the replacement of old heavily Republican whites by less Republican young whites.

This is why it perplexes me so much how he can crow about 25 year sustainability for the TX GOP. Where are they going to get the voters from? White vote is pretty much maxed out, and Republican presidential candidates have been pulling crappy margins among Hispanics for so long now, there is little reason to think that will change, especially with Trump considered. The fact is, the voters that are set to make up the future TX electorate simply do not buy what Republicans are selling.

[krazen1211]

Lol Dems on this site are hilarious. No matter how much you stress TX trending, it's not happening. This "growth" you speak of has not impacted anything in TX. TX still remains R and will be for at least the next 25 years

Fetch

I remember about 3 years ago, when Wendy Davis decided to parrot the abortion lobby in this blue texas thing. San Francisco values and money poured in.

She ended up getting about 2% more of the vote than a Railroad Commissioner guy who didn't campaign at all

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

It depends on the dem candiate and what the President's job approval is by Nov 2020. The state of the Economy is key. I see a range of Trump +5 - Dem +4.

[Comrade Funk]

If Beto is the nominee, it's Tilt R.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Beto is the nominee, it's Tilt R.

If?