Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, Cuomo - Who will be the Dem Jeb Bush in 2020?

[Shadows]

Who will the Jeb Bush of 2020? Establishment person with solid backing, huge money, decent early poll numbers, considered electable but will lose out in an embarrassing way from which it will be difficult to recover.

Gillibrand - Next Hillary?

Booker - Some call him an empty suit & a Wall Street guy!

Cuomo - Unpopular among progressives!

Castro - Hispanic dude!

Personally I go with Castro - I think Trump will break him like a boy & win in a landslide! He will probably call him a "Boy" & "Little Castro"

[Saint Milei]

It would be Castro.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Is everyone taking stupid pills or does the fact that unlike this year 2020 Trump will have a record to run on and if half the stuff he wants done happens he will be toxic not dawn on anyone

[Confused Democrat]

It's close between Booker and Castro. I'm leaning towards Booker because I don't think Castro will have the establishment's backing or big coffers.

[Chief Justice Keef]

It would be, and it will be Cory Booker.

Washington likes him because he's young, a decent speaker and an African-American, and they think he's the "next Obama". I have no doubt a bunch of major donors will be attracted to him because he's "electable" enough for them.

But frankly, like Jeb Bush, I see him as painfully moderate to the point where any left-wing Democrat can easily cross him out. In 2013, when asked if he was a progressive, he said he was first "a Democrat and an American." He's been described as fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He defended Bain Capital and private equity back in 2012 against Barack Obama.

I know plenty of people are comparing Gillibrand to Clinton in many ways, but Booker is every negative Gillibrand has maximized with hardly any of her positives.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It would be, and it will be Cory Booker.

Washington likes him because he's young, a decent speaker and an African-American, and they think he's the "next Obama". I have no doubt a bunch of major donors will be attracted to him because he's "electable" enough for them.

But frankly, like Jeb Bush, I see him as painfully moderate to the point where any left-wing Democrat can easily cross him out. In 2013, when asked if he was a progressive, he said he was first "a Democrat and an American." He's been described as fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He defended Bain Capital and private equity back in 2012 against Barack Obama.

I know plenty of people are comparing Gillibrand to Clinton in many ways, but Booker is every negative Gillibrand has maximized with hardly any of her positives.

But you pointed out the problem with the comparison he is a decent speaker which Jeb is not so he has a better chance of defending himself

[Confused Democrat]

It would be, and it will be Cory Booker.

Washington likes him because he's young, a decent speaker and an African-American, and they think he's the "next Obama". I have no doubt a bunch of major donors will be attracted to him because he's "electable" enough for them.

But frankly, like Jeb Bush, I see him as painfully moderate to the point where any left-wing Democrat can easily cross him out. In 2013, when asked if he was a progressive, he said he was first "a Democrat and an American." He's been described as fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He defended Bain Capital and private equity back in 2012 against Barack Obama.

I know plenty of people are comparing Gillibrand to Clinton in many ways, but Booker is every negative Gillibrand has maximized with hardly any of her positives.

But you pointed out the problem with the comparison he is a decent speaker which Jeb is not so he has a better chance of defending himself

It doesn't matter how well he speaks. He's too plastic. It's like he was created in a lab by his corporate donors in order to be the "perfect candidate."

He will be disowned and smeared quickly.

[Thunderbird is the word]

As far as Jeb Bush goes in terms of having almost no support despite a massive war chest I think Cuomo is most likely. Gillibrand won't run precisely because she's far too similar to Hillary. I think Klobucher is more likely then her. Booker will go further then Cuomo because he actually has some issues like criminal justice reform to run on and Castro I don't think will run either given that he hasn't actually been elected to anything yet. Cuomo is just a boring white male who is politically centrist and potentially is pretty corrupt. I think he'd be similar to Giuliani in 08 actually, gets almost no support in Iowa and puts everything into Florida but still gets something like 5% of the vote.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Cuomo.

[Figueira]

Cuomo seems like the closest comparison.

[Frodo]

Cuomo seems like the closest comparison.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Cuomo has this title written all over him.

A flameout for Booker would look more like Rubio than Jeb!.

[Mr. Morden]

Castro, Gillibrand, etc. aren’t going to get “decent early polling numbers” like Jeb Bush had, because few people even know who they are.  They’re starting from a low base of support because most people don’t know them.  Whereas Bush had decent early polling numbers by virtue of his last name.  That gave him a name recognition advantage over folks like Scott Walker, and that alone offered decent poll #s.  But that doesn’t work for someone like Gillibrand.  If she’s going to get decent polling numbers, she’ll have to do something on her own in order to get them, rather than inherent them from her family.

Similarly, Bush inherited a bunch of connections with political insiders and big $ donors because of his family name, not because of his own achievements.  I don’t think the same works for a Booker or a Gillibrand.  They’re not going to get widespread elite support unless they actually convince elites that they’re likely to win.  Which, again, is something they’d have to achieve on their own rather than inherit it from their family.

Cuomo’s in a slightly different category, in that he’s likely to be able to raise big $ for a campaign regardless of his poll numbers, and regardless of whether he convinces elites that he has much of a chance to win.  That’s simply because he’s the sitting governor of New York, and many rich people have extensive business interests in New York, and are looking for any way to gain favor with the governor.  That’s more because of his position as governor of NY than because of his last name, but of course you could say that he never would have been elected governor if not for his last name.

[Santander]

Cuomo has the most similar profile to Jeb.

However, Jeb was not just any establishment politician with lots of money. He was the most qualified candidate for President since at least Nixon. Nobody, not even Hillary, prepared themselves for the job as much or as passionately as he did. He's a great man and a great public servant who was weighed down by his family legacy and just didn't have the communication skills to get the job. (which, I admit, is an important part of being President, which is why I consider Trump to be the new Reagan)

[RINO Tom]

Cuomo will never be ANYWHERE near as much of a threat to be the nominee as Jeb Bush was.  He'd be closer to Lindsay Graham.

[Blair]

There's a lot of similarities; like Jeb with Florida, Cuomo has actually governed in certain areas in a progressive light (with Bush governing as a conservative in Florida) Raising the Minimum wage, banning etc but like Jeb due to one red button issue (Immgiration for Jeb, Wall Street/financial corruption for Cuomo) is very unpopular with the activist base of their parties.

[Suburbia]

Maybe Castro. Cuomo could win. He has some progressive bona fides.

[SCNCmod]

Regarding Booker... He is a lot more than "a black candidate... or wall street guy"  ...And any Rhodes Scholar is not an "empty suit"

Also.. regarding Castro... being as underestimated as he his right now... is an ace in his cap.  He strikes me as someone who does best when defying expectations (although I think he will not be a front runner if he runs... but a strong showing could make him a strong VP choice)

Regarding NY candidates... I doubt anyone from NY will be a front runner in 2020... since 2016 was so dominated by NY

**I think Castro has just as much raw political talent (and capability) as Obama.  But to make it to the White House on the back of raw political talent... you need a little luck (as Obama had in early races) and for all the chips to fall perfectly in place (which would have been the case for Castro if he had been Hillary's VP)... but I wouldn't count him out yet (as a potential VP).

[SCNCmod]

Whether or not Booker is the candidate... or falls on his face... to say he is a "Plastic candidate created by Wall Street"  etc ... is IMO- such an over-played cliche- not steeped in critical thought or independent analysis...

[Beet]

Whether or not Booker is the candidate... or falls on his face... to say he is a "Plastic candidate created by Wall Street"  etc ... is IMO- such an over-played cliche- not steeped in critical thought or independent analysis...

Yeah, I've met Cory Booker and he was very kind, impressive and charismatic, and just as good a speaker when the cameras aren't on. He gets a short shrift here sometimes.

[Cynthia]

Governor Jason Carter of Georgia

[uti2]

As far as Jeb Bush goes in terms of having almost no support despite a massive war chest I think Cuomo is most likely. Gillibrand won't run precisely because she's far too similar to Hillary. I think Klobucher is more likely then her. Booker will go further then Cuomo because he actually has some issues like criminal justice reform to run on and Castro I don't think will run either given that he hasn't actually been elected to anything yet. Cuomo is just a boring white male who is politically centrist and potentially is pretty corrupt. I think he'd be similar to Giuliani in 08 actually, gets almost no support in Iowa and puts everything into Florida but still gets something like 5% of the vote.

Cuomo has this title written all over him.

A flameout for Booker would look more like Rubio than Jeb!.

Jeb/Rubio are basically interchangeable, except Rubio is even more of a niche candidate with even less appeal to moderates in his party. Rubio stole Jeb's spot when he enabled and refused to attack Trump, that's the only reason why he lasted so long, had he attacked Trump from day 1 he would've ended up like Walker, etc.

[Kylar]

Julian Castro if he runs, he's not very inspiring.
I don't rule out Cuomo or Gillibrand either.

[President Johnson]

Cuomo isn't going anywhere. I'm pretty sure that one of Harris, Booker, Gillibrand and Castro will win the nomination, though.

Agreed except for Julian Castro. The guy is an empty suit.