Under what conditions would the preceding poster win the preceding state?

[Xing]

In a primary (caucus, really): Runs against an establishment, moderate Democrat, and generates more energy.

In a general election: Runs a populist campaign with a focus on agriculture, and doesn't come across as being too anti-oil. Also, the Republican would have to be pretty unpopular, and unapologetically corporatist.

Maine

[Mr. Smith]

The Democrats nominate a lousy candidate and completely collapse.

EDIT: Whoops, thought it was related to the posters avvie for some reason...I'll just retcon in Wyoming.

[TDAS04]

Xingkerui wins Democratic-leaning Maine because it's a normal election year, and his opponent is a typical Republican.

Utah

[RFayette]

Trump Access Hollywood tape released day before election

[Intell]

West Virginia.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Just being your regular self + being very pro-coal + not mentioning "socialism"

Wyoming

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If the Republican candidate actually stood in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shot someone (and, even then, it would be close).  Maybe if he then flew to Wyoming.

North Carolina

[Xing]

Primary: Pretty likely to happen, especially against a less conservative Republican from the Northeast or Midwest.

G.E.: Would probably happen if the Democrat were either just as far to the left, or very centrist, and not appealing to progressives. Basically, if the race were close, you'd likely win NC.

Pennsylvania

[OneJ]

The GOP opponent is boring and doesn't shake up the WWC well enough (not pay attention to the state in general). He/she is toxic to the suburban areas and urban centers.

South Carolina

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Uses Joe Manchin, George Wallace (as Dem), and Jimmy Carter as his role models; GOP opponent is Todd Akin.

Michigan

[Mr. Smith]

Do whatever the heck Trump did.

Georgia

[TDAS04]

Black turnout is at an all-time high and his opponent is caught rooting against the the Falcons.

Indiana

[OSR stands with Israel]

Very unpopular gop incumbent and you run a very populistic campaign.


Oregon

[Xing]

You had already been elected Governor of Oregon, were decently popular, and ran against a very unpopular Democratic incumbent who was fairly hawkish.

Ohio

[OneJ]

A weaker than usual economy strikes Ohio (and fingers get pointed at the GOP) and you sympathize with the voters using a strong populist campaign.

Arizona

[RFayette]

Trump-like candidate on GOP side, but with additional scandals

New Hampshire

[Kingpoleon]

Running against a populist, non-libertarian Democrat, with a politician like Kelly Ayotte as his running mate.


Illinois(as a Republican)

[OneJ]

The Democrat makes a mistake and talks about crime in Chicago stating that "the Blacks all live on one street and they all kill each other."

Arizona

[Cashew]

Your opponent is a low energy carpetbagger, and an extreme social conservative.

After an intensely personal campaign, you seize the initiative and win.

Oklahoma

[TDAS04]

The Republican candidate reveals he worships Satan, and Cashew is the only alternative.

Kansas

[Santander]

No such conditions exist, as Brownback proved.

Hawaii

[This account no longer in use.]

No other candidates meet the ballot deadline.

New Hampshire

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Sex change.

Indiana

[Xing]

The previous Republican president caused the economy to tank, promoted trade deals that allowed millions of jobs to be shipped overseas, and you run on an economic-centered, populist message.

Alaska

[heatcharger]

Following an unpopular Republican president, who privatized huge swaths of public land, leaves with a bad economy, and your opponent is an authoritarian Republican who promises to end welfare of all kinds, including the Alaska Permanent Fund.

Utah