Insert sex change to appeal to angry women joke here
Utah
Donald Trump runs for reelection and has been a foul-mouthed disaster as President, and is threatening the religious liberty of Muslims. An unsealed deposition comes out that reveals that he pressured a mistress to get two abortions. He was also caught on a hot mic disparaging a popular mormon legislator for his "kooky religion." McMullin runs and splits the already depressed Republican-leaning vote in Utah, giving the EC votes to Peebs.
In the caucus: Runs a populist, enthusiastic, youth-driven rural campaign running one v one against a Booker type.
For me: North Carolina