Generic Democratic Victory Map 2020

[jamestroll]

This is what the map could be if Trump is unpopular and is defeated by a solid but not massive lead in popular vote. I was most unsure of North Carolina and Ohio to be honest. Only because NC is not very elastic and Midwestern states are more swingy. Arizona I was unsure of also.. Democratic percentage seems stagnant and this election was uniquely bad for AZ Republicans.

[Lachi]

If Georgis went, Arizona would have already gone.

[jamestroll]

If Georgis went, Arizona would have already gone.

I think Georgia is  just more of a matter of investment. The expensive Atlanta media market surely does discourage Democrats from investing in there.

North Carolina went to Trump due to a lot of local issues. See the protests.

Arizona is fools gold for Democrats. Always tempting but never enough. But the same thing was said about Pennsylvania for the Republicans for many cycles and it finally happened. So who knows.

Anyway, I can not believe that I am posting 2020 predictions. lmao

[jamestroll]

If Georgis went, Arizona would have already gone.

I think Georgia is  just more of a matter of investment. The expensive Atlanta media market surely does discourage Democrats from investing in there.

North Carolina went to Trump due to a lot of local issues. See the protests.

Arizona is fools gold for Democrats. Always tempting but never enough. But the same thing was said about Pennsylvania for the Republicans for many cycles and it finally happened. So who knows.

Anyway, I can not believe that I am posting 2020 predictions. lmao

Isn't it a bit premature to be saying that? 2016 was the first year since 1996 that Dems even made a play at Arizona. And Maricopa County as a whole was promising for Dems.

I think it is great that Maricopa County elected a Democratic Sheriff by a nice margin and now has a Democratic recorder. But it seems every election year from 2000, Democrats thought they had a chance in Arizona but it never materialized! I even mentioned in my post that the fools gold for the GOP in PA became reality this year. The same could happen with Arizona in 2020 or later!

[Kingpoleon]

That's 269 electoral votes already.

[JustinTimeCuber]

well I guess I have to make some maps for y'all

30% = low confidence
40% = low confidence pickup
70% = high confidence
90% = high confidence pickup

Rust belt / Rural (e.g. Sanders or Brown) vs Trump; job approval <30%

Trump job approval <40%

Trump job approval <50%

Trump job approval >50%

[MLM]

Flip GA and yeah that would be the generic Dem win.

[jamestroll]

Flip GA and yeah that would be the generic Dem win.

As long as Democrats invest in Georgia in 2020, they will win it.

In fact, I GAURENTEE IT!

[Pericles]

Arizona would go before Georgia, it was closer than North Carolina this year and is trending D hard. Trump would probably be worse for Arizona in 2020 now that he has actually gone through with the deportations (though still no Mexican-paid wall). Also CD2 of Nebraska may go red, 270.com says Trump won it by a margin of less than 5 points, and it shows his weakness with college-educated whites. If he goes through with his promises, those that gambled he would not go through with his promises would stay home or vote Democrat, and so that would swing that district too.

[SCNCmod]

I think this is a more likely Map for 2020...

I think a real possible path... even if Trump is fairly popular (and therefore holds rust belt).. is Dems flipping FL & AZ. (Only lost FL by 1.2% ... and AZ by 3.5%)..... Hillary lost AZ by lower % than she lost NC. Also, of all the state- AZ & TX were 2 on the only states with a substantial jump towards the Dems (vs 2012)

If Dems had 4% more of the Latinos that voted in FL & AZ... they win those 2 states (Hillary only got 62% of Latinos in AZ/FL).  With the increasing Latino populations in theses states... along with younger generations voting Dem- the trends look better for Dems.  

Some have said that AZ was closer b/c Johnson got 4% in AZ many of which may've voted Rep in past.... But these voters were voting against Trump (& Clinton)... so I think most would still vote against Trump in 2020.

I think Heinrich or Castro on the ticket would make AZ even more likely to go
Dem (Castro would inspire many Latino's in AZ who identify with him, and would especially motivate younger AZ latinos.. as well as independent voters identify with him being from a border state, etc)...

Henrich would also attract many independent voters in AZ as many will identify with him as well (he was born in AZ... won a Republican Congressional seat in NM before elected to Senate, lives in a neighboring state, best friends with R Senator from AZ, Jeff Flake, etc).

I could see the FL/AZ strategy working with a Booker/Henrich ticket... a Henrich/ Castro ticket, or a (Bullock or Brown)/ Castro ticket.

*I don't think GA or NC will flip in 2020... but I think there is a very good chance Trump will lose 1 of (WI, MI, PA).... Cory Booker would probably almost definitely take back PA... (as he would make up the margin Hillary lost PA...by very high turnout numbers in his neighboring Philly). So Booker would likely be a good candidate for a "Florida/Penn" strategy.

[jamestroll]

Just to clarify, my map was assuming a Democratic win with a decent but not overwhelming popular vote lead. At D+6 to 7 I think the Dem can win Michigan.

[jamestroll]

My midwestern R to D flips are based on an assumption that a recession may occur. Typically, those states are hit harder by recessions and those states are also more prone to swings. So it would not shock me at all if even Iowa could flip R to D in 2020 if a recession occurs. It would not shock me if MO and IN come back within 8 to 12 points.

Also Clinton barely campaigned in any of those Midwestern states. So in a generic Democratic victory, I could see most of them returning. Sanders would have likely won most of them and not have been blown out by 20 points in Missouri and Indiana.

As far as Georgia v Arizona. Yes, both could go Democratic in 2020 with a healthy Democratic victory. It is just there were so many field ups and money put in Arizona in 2020 and yet, Trump still won it. It seems to be a state were most of the anti Trump Republicans went third party rather than for Clinton. The rust belt and midwest were sort of the opposite. Clinton percentage was stuck at 44-45%. Georgia had virtually no investment or anything in it and  Trump won it by 5 points. Solid but not impressive margin. The margin will continue to get smaller. I am not one of those people who believe Democrats can win everything on demographics, but just running ads and investing in the state could flip it to the Democrats very quickly.

We can't always assume black turnout will be excessively high and go 19 to 1 for the Dem nominee or that Latinos will start to vote like blacks. But even in the very expensive Atlanta Media Market, it is worth Democrats investing in Georgia. After 2020, it could have more electoral votes than Michigan has! Georgia does have a healthy chunk of college educated whites and I have some hope that Democrats will learn their lesson and not entirely concede white working class. So all that together, I could see a Democratic victory of 5% in Georgia in 2020.

[Figueira]

This, give or take NC, AZ, GA, OH.

[SCNCmod]

Regarding GA & AZ... I think GA will naturally turn Dem... just maybe not until 2024.  I think the same with AZ...

BUT having part of the Dem Ticket from either region... could possibly swing either to Dems a cycle early (2020).  Under this thought... of the candidates mentioned- a few have factors that could affect AZ. (more so than any names I've seen that would have a similar direct effect of Georgia)

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Give or take Arizona.

[SCNCmod]

Question....

Why do these maps use ... Blue for Republicans & Red for Dems .... it makes it a little confusing to look at?

[AGA]

Question....

Why do these maps use ... Blue for Republicans & Red for Dems .... it makes it a little confusing to look at?

When the maps on this site were created in the 90s, Democrats and Republicans did not formally have colors associated with them. Blue and red were used sometimes, but it didn't really matter. The site just leaves the maps like that because they would take too long to change. Also, the users here seem to like the colors.

[AGA]

Something like this.

Democrat: 334
Trump: 224

[henster]

I will wait at least one more cycle before classifying IA & OH as red states, Ds will contest both states in 2020.

[Lachi]

I think that if a democrat wins in 2020, it'll be a win in the realms of the 90s, in terms of the EV

Dem 2016+ (In order)

MI
PA (270)
WI
FL
AZ
NC
GA
OH
This makes up 367 for the democrat, and 171 for Trump.

[Figueira]

I will wait at least one more cycle before classifying IA & OH as red states, Ds will contest both states in 2020.

Agreed. Any state that voted for two different parties inthe last two elections is by definition a swing state.

[MT Treasurer]

I will wait at least one more cycle before classifying IA & OH as red states, Ds will contest both states in 2020.

Agreed. Any state that voted for two different parties inthe last two elections is by definition a swing state.

Vermont and Illinois in 1996, Montana in 2000, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee in 2004?

[President Johnson]

Three options:

A narrow victory

278 - 260 (approx. 49% vs. 47%)

A clear victory, but no blow-out

334 - 204 (approx. 51% vs. 46%)

* Arizona is within one point and could go either way this election.


Decisive Democratic victory

375 - 163 (approx. 53% vs. 45%)

Bonus: A landslide, but very unrealistic

422 - 116 (approx. 54% vs. 44%)

[Figueira]

I will wait at least one more cycle before classifying IA & OH as red states, Ds will contest both states in 2020.

Agreed. Any state that voted for two different parties inthe last two elections is by definition a swing state.

Vermont and Illinois in 1996, Montana in 2000, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee in 2004?

It isn't 2020 right now, it's 2016. If Trump is 15 points ahead in Iowa in October polling, but tied nationwide, then it's fair to say it's not a swing state.

[Pericles]

I will wait at least one more cycle before classifying IA & OH as red states, Ds will contest both states in 2020.

Agreed. Any state that voted for two different parties inthe last two elections is by definition a swing state.

Vermont and Illinois in 1996, Montana in 2000, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee in 2004?