Generic Democratic Victory Map 2020

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Sure, go ahead, try to win the Sun Belt again at the expense of the midwest. See how that works out for you.

[OneJ]

I think people are becoming obsessed with Democrats needing to turn out the WWC. Many members of that group don't share values or ideas with the Democratic Party like they once did. WI looks difficult. Even Feingold fell behid Hillary. Trump's message on terrorism and immigration resonated with many of them (the economy to a much lesser extent).

Should Democrats try focusing on minority turnout then? Yes. There is still plenty of room for Democrats to turn minorities out like Latinos and Asians while continuing to make inroads towards college educated whites (who usually turn out better than non-college educated whites).

Battleground States that Dems need to focus on especially:
-Florida (The Big Money State; counter whites swinging Rep)
-Pennsylvania (relatively favorable to Dems thanks to Urban areas)
-Michigan (no ands, ifs, or buts about it)
-Wisconsin (difficult, but probably needs attention)
-Minnesota (The streak shall never die)
-Arizona (Demography points to AZ; Dems need to erode the margins in Maricopa and Yuma counties)
-Georgia (Demographics in our favor; this state was not seriously contested this year and still swung towards Hillary)
-New Hampshire (Defend, defend, defend!)
-Maine (Really the second congressional district)
-Nevada (the WWC could surge)
-NE-02 (No one talks about this one; it was slightly closer than AZ)
-North Carolina (inelastic, but there's some room to grow)

However, Democrats should probably implement the 50 state strategy.

[Pericles]

All the Democrats need is to keep all the states Hillary won and carry Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, all of which they lost by less than 1%. Florida too but that is optional and not needed.

[MT Treasurer]

I will wait at least one more cycle before classifying IA & OH as red states, Ds will contest both states in 2020.

Agreed. Any state that voted for two different parties inthe last two elections is by definition a swing state.

Vermont and Illinois in 1996, Montana in 2000, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee in 2004?

It isn't 2020 right now, it's 2016. If Trump is 15 points ahead in Iowa in October polling, but tied nationwide, then it's fair to say it's not a swing state.

Yeah, but I just wanted to point out that not any state that voted for two different parties in the two previous elections at some point in time was always considered a swing state in the next election.

[Xing]

Clinton states + PA, MI, and WI FL

[jamestroll]

So I am alone in this forum in thinking Georgia will likely go D next time Democrats have a healthy popular vote lead?

[Figueira]

I will wait at least one more cycle before classifying IA & OH as red states, Ds will contest both states in 2020.

Agreed. Any state that voted for two different parties inthe last two elections is by definition a swing state.

Vermont and Illinois in 1996, Montana in 2000, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee in 2004?

It isn't 2020 right now, it's 2016. If Trump is 15 points ahead in Iowa in October polling, but tied nationwide, then it's fair to say it's not a swing state.

Yeah, but I just wanted to point out that not any state that voted for two different parties in the two previous elections at some point in time was always considered a swing state in the next election.

I'm obviously not saying that Iowa will necessarily be close in the next election. I'm just saying that until we have polling saying otherwise, it should be considered a swing state. I would say the same thing about the states you mentioned, and even Indiana after 2012.

[Wiz in Wis]

Is there any scenario where the Democrats nominate someone with as much baggage/scandal as Clinton? If not, then I would imagine that WI, MI, and PA are more likely than not to swing back towards the Dems (as are OH, IA, though maybe not as much as needed to win). FL, AZ, and NC/GA round out the obvious targets.

If Trump implodes, all bets are off. I could see the right ticket win Texas, Kansas, Montana, Alaska, South Carolina...