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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)  (Read 36696 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« on: January 03, 2017, 10:38:29 am »

Upcoming municipal by-elections:

- Feb. 13: Toronto Ward 42 (to replace Raymond Cho who was elected to Queen's Park)
- Mar. 27: Georgina, Ontario Ward 1

Provincial (no dates set so far)Sad

- Saskatoon Meewasin (SK)
- Sault Ste. Marie (ON)
- Point Douglas (MB)

Federal (no dates)Sad

- Calgary Heritage (AB) - to replace Stephen Harper
- Calgary Midnapore (AB) - to replace Jason Kenney
- Ottawa-Vanier (ON) - to replace Mauril Bélanger  (RIP)


« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 10:37:52 am by 🍁 Hatman »Logged

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trebor204
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2017, 11:59:04 pm »



Manitoba NDP, Kevin Chief (Point Douglas) resigned his seat back in December.
I don't think his resignation is official yet.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/kevin-chief-resigns-1.3896978
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2017, 09:43:56 am »



Manitoba NDP, Kevin Chief (Point Douglas) resigned his seat back in December.
I don't think his resignation is official yet.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/kevin-chief-resigns-1.3896978

Oh yes, I knew I was forgetting something. Thanks!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2017, 08:56:04 am »

Markham-Thornhill and Saint-Laurent: McCallum is leaving politics and headed to the Beijing Embassy, Dion outta Cabinet and to an unspecified embassy.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2017, 11:06:55 am by RogueBeaver »Logged

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lilTommy
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2017, 10:11:41 am »

Markham-Unionville and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville: McCallum is leaving politics and headed to the Beijing Embassy, Dion outta Cabinet and to an unspecified embassy.

Both haven't been great performers, Dion has never looked well suited for cabinet, even under Chretien and McCallum has had a number of comments go off the rails.

McCallum's riding is Markham-Thornhill; he used to represent Markham-Unionville up until last election but after redistribution ran here. 2011 was very close between the CPC and LPC; 2015 was not. If the CPC were polling better OR are able to get a very strong well known candidate this would be competitive since there is some person McCallum effect here. Otherwise this will be LPC win.
Dion's riding of Saint Laurent, will probably always go Liberal. The NDP cut the LPC lead to only 13 points in 2011 but in 2015 the lead was 42 points. This is not a Dion riding but rather a LIBERAL one, LPC vote is typically in the 60-70% range.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2017, 11:01:52 am »

RB must be stuck in 2014. Dion's riding changed names too (just Saint-Laurent now).
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2017, 11:07:32 am »

Dion will be Ambassador to Germany and the EU.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2017, 09:21:16 pm »

Calgary Midnapore: Stephanie Kusik will be the next MP.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2017, 08:09:34 pm »

Potential Gouin: Françoise David may be resigning tomorrow, or retiring next year.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2017, 11:46:59 am »

She's retiring. Can QS hold it? Maybe a chance for the NDPQ to run (is that still happening)? Gouin is basically La Petite-Patrie, which pretty much the most leftist area in Quebec.
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2017, 07:32:27 am »

Ottawa-Vanier: Mme Bélanger endorses Mona Fortier.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2017, 04:35:33 pm »

She's retiring. Can QS hold it? Maybe a chance for the NDPQ to run (is that still happening)? Gouin is basically La Petite-Patrie, which pretty much the most leftist area in Quebec.

The rumour is than QS is trying to convince Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (the most hardline student leader during the 2012 student strikes) to run.
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« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2017, 05:19:31 pm »

Calgary Midnapore: Grits have chosen their candidate.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2017, 06:05:39 pm »

She's retiring. Can QS hold it? Maybe a chance for the NDPQ to run (is that still happening)? Gouin is basically La Petite-Patrie, which pretty much the most leftist area in Quebec.

Should be an interesting test case for QS. I would guess they hold it based off their relatively strong polling and the fact that they make a solid protest vote option, but what do I know, I can't even predict Anglo results Tongue
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« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2017, 07:15:42 pm »

Liberal nomination for Ottawa-Vanier is February 5th.

François Lambert is interested to run for the Liberals. Thinks replacing Stéphane Dion would be an opportunity for him. He is a former dragon on the local Dragon's Den version.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201701/19/01-5061004-lex-dragon-francois-lambert-lorgne-les-liberaux-federaux.php

Talking about it publicly doesn't seem to be the way to be chosen.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2017, 07:29:10 pm »

She's retiring. Can QS hold it? Maybe a chance for the NDPQ to run (is that still happening)? Gouin is basically La Petite-Patrie, which pretty much the most leftist area in Quebec.

Should be an interesting test case for QS. I would guess they hold it based off their relatively strong polling and the fact that they make a solid protest vote option, but what do I know, I can't even predict Anglo results Tongue

Prediction: QS holds it easily, seat belongs to them now & not just David. I'm old enough to remember when QS had no seats (at the time hoping they'd grab PQ seats). Tongue
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lilTommy
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« Reply #16 on: January 23, 2017, 04:53:58 pm »

With neither the SP or NDP having nominated candidates, the NDP lead the first poll in Saskatoon-Meewasin... barely, within the margin of error

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/ndp-lead-in-latest-poll-on-saskatoon-meewasin-byelection-1.3253076

NDP 37%, SP 35%, Greens and Liberals at 3% a piece

"The poll surveyed 603 people between Jan. 20 and 21, and carries a margin of error of 3.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20."

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« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2017, 02:11:39 pm »

The same poll indicates that the NDP has a much bigger lead when you test Ryan Meili (who was nominated last night) against either of the people vying for the Sask Party nomination
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Jeppe
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« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2017, 07:05:29 pm »

I see the Sask NDP winning by a 50-40 margin in the Saskatoon-Meewasin byelecyion. The Sask Party's candidates are both pretty mediocre, having been recently defeated in various elections in different parts of the city (Friesen lost in a different riding last election, and Kaminski got crushed in a city council election on the other side of town just 3 months ago).

The former mayor of Saskatoon, Don Atchison might've been able to win this race for the Sask Party, but I'm gonna say this race is likely NDP.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2017, 09:09:17 pm »

Atchison is a nut case and very unpopular. Hence why he lost, even against a divided opposition in last year's mayoral election.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2017, 10:17:23 pm »

He's still popular in suburban Saskatoon, in which a large part of Saskatoon Meewasin comprises of. Talk of the town is that the by-election is happening in either late February or early March, with Wall calling the election shortly after their nomination meeting on the 30th.
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DL
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« Reply #21 on: January 26, 2017, 01:09:25 am »

Looking at a map Meewasin doesn't look all that suburban to me...its close to downtown and mostly right by the river
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lilTommy
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« Reply #22 on: January 26, 2017, 07:09:49 am »

In Ontario, the Sault Ste. Marie by-election is shaping up to be a battle of the City Councillors:

http://www.saultstar.com/2017/01/25/krmpotich-to-carry-ndp-banner

NDP nominated Ward 6 Councillor Joe Krmpotich
PCs nominated Ward 5 Councillor Ross Romano

oh, thats not all, Ward 3 Councillor Matthew Shoemaker is considering a run for the Liberals.

Anyone familiar with The Sault local politics?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2017, 07:25:41 am »

Looking at a map Meewasin doesn't look all that suburban to me...its close to downtown and mostly right by the river

Well, the northern half of the riding is suburban.
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« Reply #24 on: January 26, 2017, 07:30:20 am »

In Ontario, the Sault Ste. Marie by-election is shaping up to be a battle of the City Councillors:

http://www.saultstar.com/2017/01/25/krmpotich-to-carry-ndp-banner

NDP nominated Ward 6 Councillor Joe Krmpotich
PCs nominated Ward 5 Councillor Ross Romano

oh, thats not all, Ward 3 Councillor Matthew Shoemaker is considering a run for the Liberals.

Anyone familiar with The Sault local politics?

As an endorser of the War on Vowels, I support Krmpotich
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