Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Poirot]

PC in the lead by 71 votes over NDP. About a third of polls reporting.
John Turmel is last with 8 votes.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

PC now 205 votes ahead.

[Poirot]

PC extending the lead to about 400 at half point.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

PC continues to extend the lead now to ~600 votes at 60% reporting.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the Tories have got it.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Tories now 1,000 votes ahead.

[Poirot]

PC at 39%. None of the above party in 5th place with 1.25%

[Poirot]

As they are coming down the stretch, PC 39%, NDP 33%, LIB 23%

[RogueBeaver]

Paikin calls it. As does CP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

[adma]

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

Not really.  More that voters chose to "back a winner" (i.e. the presumption that the PCs will win the next election.

Worth noting that this is the first time the provincial PCs have won a seat beyond Nipissing in 30 years.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Final results Sault Ste Marie

Ross Romano PC 10,391 40.30% (+27.91%)
Joe Krmpotich NDP 8535 33.10% (+7.63%)
Debbie Amarosa Liberal 5919 22.96% (-35.57)
Kara Flannigan Green 512 1.99% (-1.24%)
Above Znoneofthe None of the above party 310 1.20%
Gene Balfour Libertarian  71 0.28% (-0.10%)
John Turmel Pauper 47 0.18%

Turnout 43.93%
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

[MAINEiac4434]

LOL Grits are screwed next year.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

Not really.  More that voters chose to "back a winner" (i.e. the presumption that the PCs will win the next election.

Right, but the NDP has rarely ever hit 40% in this riding. There is definitely a ceiling.

[lilTommy]

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

Not really.  More that voters chose to "back a winner" (i.e. the presumption that the PCs will win the next election.

Worth noting that this is the first time the provincial PCs have won a seat beyond Nipissing in 30 years.

The NDP has won upwards of 43-49% of the vote here (1999 they won 43%, in 87 it was 49%), and they did see a swing of almost 8% but I agree I think it has more to do with a general PC swing across the province. Its the OLP who dropped from 58% to 23% here that have to worry. With Scarborough and now SSM losses.
I think the NDP does have to worry a little though, the North is somewhat "their" territory, continues to be their best polled area... they don't want to lose to the PCs in the Liberal ridings. But then again this is SSM so.

The PCs won Cochrane South in 1987, so like exactly 30 years

[Hatman 🍁]

Sure, the NDP has cracked 40% before, but that was with Tony Martin on the ballot, and his popularity began to wane in the 2000s. I don't think the NDP can get to those numbers any more in the Soo.

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

[lilTommy]

Sure, the NDP has cracked 40% before, but that was with Tony Martin on the ballot, and his popularity began to wane in the 2000s. I don't think the NDP can get to those numbers any more in the Soo.

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

Oh Agreed, Candidate is also important here which I think was talked about, I'm not fully versed on Krmpotich other then he was a councillor a union steel guy. Wasn't enough with the PCs riding high and the Liberals still holding 20+%

Its true, cities tend to be more right-wing (due to being the regional centres where you find more wealth, professionals, etc) the NDP did manage to squeak a win in Sudbury in 2014... only to lose it with a mess of a candidate who stepped down. The split happened, just benefited the PCs this time more so. Krmpotich already mentioned there may be a re-match...

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of candidate strengths, I'm not sure how much this was discussed,  but Krmpotich and Romano both represented the same ward on city council, so they have "run against" each other in the past, even though it was a 2 person seat. The 2014 result was:

Krmpotich: 2085
Romano: 1643
Losing candidates: 2681

Krmpotich was one of the incumbents, while Romano wasn't, which may have helped him.

It will be interesting to see who won their ward last night. Looking at the 2008 and 2011 federal poll maps, it looks like the ward (which covers the west part of the city) is pretty evenly split between NDP supporters and Tories.

[DL]

Let's not lose sight of the elephant in the room. In 2014 Sault Ste. Marie was the second safest Ontario Liberal seat in the entire province! They took 59% of the vote there. Their vote crashed by 36 points to just 23% - if that swing were replicated across the province the Liberals would be reduced to just one seat!

Final results Sault Ste Marie

Ross Romano PC 10,391 40.30% (+27.91%)
Joe Krmpotich NDP 8535 33.10% (+7.63%)
Debbie Amarosa Liberal 5919 22.96% (-35.57)
Kara Flannigan Green 512 1.99% (-1.24%)
Above Znoneofthe None of the above party 310 1.20%
Gene Balfour Libertarian  71 0.28% (-0.10%)
John Turmel Pauper 47 0.18%

Turnout 43.93%
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

[RogueBeaver]

In related news, Romano will resign his council seat on the 12th.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not lose sight of the elephant in the room. In 2014 Sault Ste. Marie was the second safest Ontario Liberal seat in the entire province! They took 59% of the vote there. Their vote crashed by 36 points to just 23% - if that swing were replicated across the province the Liberals would be reduced to just one seat!

Final results Sault Ste Marie

Ross Romano PC 10,391 40.30% (+27.91%)
Joe Krmpotich NDP 8535 33.10% (+7.63%)
Debbie Amarosa Liberal 5919 22.96% (-35.57)
Kara Flannigan Green 512 1.99% (-1.24%)
Above Znoneofthe None of the above party 310 1.20%
Gene Balfour Libertarian  71 0.28% (-0.10%)
John Turmel Pauper 47 0.18%

Turnout 43.93%
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

Irrelevant spin. I've stated numerous times that Sault Ste. Marie is a very different riding from the rest of the province, and therefore that ~32% swing will not be replicated across the province.

[DC Al Fine]

Let's not lose sight of the elephant in the room. In 2014 Sault Ste. Marie was the second safest Ontario Liberal seat in the entire province! They took 59% of the vote there. Their vote crashed by 36 points to just 23% - if that swing were replicated across the province the Liberals would be reduced to just one seat!

Final results Sault Ste Marie

Ross Romano PC 10,391 40.30% (+27.91%)
Joe Krmpotich NDP 8535 33.10% (+7.63%)
Debbie Amarosa Liberal 5919 22.96% (-35.57)
Kara Flannigan Green 512 1.99% (-1.24%)
Above Znoneofthe None of the above party 310 1.20%
Gene Balfour Libertarian  71 0.28% (-0.10%)
John Turmel Pauper 47 0.18%

Turnout 43.93%
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

Irrelevant spin. I've stated numerous times that Sault Ste. Marie is a very different riding from the rest of the province, and therefore that ~32% swing will not be replicated across the province.

It's a byelection. This happens all the time and pundits still don't learn. The government party​ loses 20% plus in a byelection, we get all these predictions of doom, but the when the general election comes around, the swing is almost always more pedestrian.

I don't like the OLP and think they're doomed to lose but even a 20% is kind of unlikely, much less 36%.

[DL]

Of coourse i don't seriously expect the Ontario Liberals to drop 36 points across the province and lose two thirds of their support from the last election...but its still a pretty serious rebuke to come in such a distant third in a seat that was previously won by such a huge margin. This will fuel sentiments inside the OLP that Wynne is toxic and needs to be replaced.

[toaster]

Patrick Brown sure is showing that he is a contender.  However, some of the reaction is quite hyper-sensationalist, making it seem like this PC win would be akin to a  Toronto-Danforth, or other leftist riding, win.  This was a seat that went Conservative federally, was on the PCs radar.  Sault Ste Marie has had 3 way splits for some time.  It is not that shocking that the PCs won.

[adma]

Patrick Brown sure is showing that he is a contender.  However, some of the reaction is quite hyper-sensationalist, making it seem like this PC win would be akin to a  Toronto-Danforth, or other leftist riding, win.  This was a seat that went Conservative federally, was on the PCs radar.  Sault Ste Marie has had 3 way splits for some time.  It is not that shocking that the PCs won.

And lest we forget, it was the top riding in Ontario for the Confederation of Regions in 1990.